On March 12, the A-share market fluctuated and warmed up, with the energy sector making a strong surge! As of 10:40, the energy ETF (159930), which includes only 24 oil stocks, rose nearly 3%, hitting a five-day winning streak, with continuous capital inflow. The energy ETF (159930) attracted over 27 million yuan in intraday capital, in addition to a cumulative net inflow of over 120 million yuan yesterday.
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Most of the constituent stocks of the energy ETF (159930) surged, with Yanzhou Coal Mining hitting the daily limit, China Coal Energy rising over 7%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry increasing over 4%, and Shanxi Coking Coal, Huayang Co., and China Shenhua rising over 3%, along with China Petroleum and China Petrochemical following suit.
【Top Ten Constituent Stocks of Energy ETF (159930)】
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In terms of news, international oil prices regained upward momentum, with ICE Brent crude soaring over 7% during the session. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated that if the Iran crisis continues for several months, Brent crude prices could soar to $150.
【 The oil price center remains high, focusing on the energy sector with strong &#34;price increase chain&#34; logic】
Industrial Securities believes that the oil price center will remain high, which may continue to be the core background for industry allocation in the near future. Based on this, it is recommended to layout along two lines: First, sectors whose prices can link with oil prices and are expected to benefit from rising oil prices; second, sectors with independent prosperity and whose fundamentals are less affected by rising oil prices.
Industries whose prices or profits are expected to correlate with rising oil prices will be an important clue in the &#34;price increase chain&#34; in the near future. Reviewing the absolute/relative returns of various industries since 2005 and their correlation with oil prices, the industries with a positive correlation are mainly concentrated in: non-ferrous metals, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, chemicals, steel, machinery, new energy, and agriculture.
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The logic benefiting from rising oil prices can be summarized into the following three categories:
Direct profit enhancement: Rising oil prices directly increase the profits of upstream energy-related industries such as crude oil extraction, oil service equipment, and oil transportation, bringing profit elasticity;
Energy substitution: Under high oil prices, the economic viability of other energy sources such as coal, gas, coal chemical, new energy, and biofuels (such as soybeans) becomes prominent, benefiting from the rising demand driven by energy substitution logic;
Cost-driven price increases: Rising crude oil prices push up the production costs of fertilizers and pesticides, which in turn transmit to prices through the planting costs of agricultural products.
[From the Perspective of Energy Substitution, High-Quality Coal Asset Valuation May Have Room for Improvement!]
CICC believes that due to the situation in Iran, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, disrupting the global supply of oil, gas, and chemical products. This may drive up the prices of oil, gas, and chemical products, stimulate domestic coal chemical demand, and increase gas power generation costs, thereby stimulating the marginal demand for coal instead of gas on the power generation side. In the long term, as overseas geopolitical complexities increase, the security of supply in upstream sectors such as energy will become increasingly important. As a ballast for energy and an important raw material for chemicals, the strategic significance of coal resources to China is increasingly enhanced, and the valuation of high-quality coal assets may have room for improvement. (Source: CICC 20260306 &#34;The Situation in Iran Heats Up, Coal Price Center May Rise&#34;)
Changjiang Securities estimates the energy substitution effect triggered by the surge in oil and gas prices due to the US-Iran conflict is expected to drive coal demand:
Through calculations, considering the increase in coal chemical and coal power demand, it is estimated that the two combined may increase global coal consumption by about 167 million tons, accounting for 2.2% of the total global thermal coal consumption in 2025; the combined increase in China's coal consumption may be 59 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of China's thermal coal consumption in 2025. Coupled with panic-driven coal stockpiling demand under the expectation of an energy crisis, there is a possibility of an unexpected rise in domestic and international coal prices. (Source: Changjiang Securities 20260308 &#34;Weekly Report on Coal and Fuel Consumption: How Much Coal Demand Can the US-Iran Conflict Drive?&#34;)
[From the Perspective of Energy Security, How to View the Tightness of Oil and Gas Supply?]
Guojin Securities estimates that under the baseline scenario (continued disruption), if the situation maintains its current low-intensity state, there will be a net supply gap of about 2.5-4 million barrels per day in the global market, with WTI near-month prices expected to remain in the range of $91-100 per barrel. If diplomatic negotiations do not achieve substantial progress before mid-March and the intensity of the conflict further escalates, the net supply gap may widen to 5-6 million barrels per day, and the oil price center may rise to $100-103 per barrel. The boundary between these two phases is precisely at the $100 mark, which is also seen as an important psychological threshold for the current market's judgment of further deterioration of the situation.
In a de-escalation scenario, if Iran's signals of suspension translate into substantial de-escalation actions, the risk premium in oil prices will quickly decline. Model calculations show that WTI is expected to fall back to $75-77 per barrel within 4-6 weeks. However, due to the re-pricing of war risks and the time lag in restoring shipping order, oil prices are still unlikely to fully return to the baseline level of about $64 per barrel before the conflict in the short term.
In a tail risk scenario, if the conflict escalates to large-scale mining in the Strait of Hormuz, the global supply shock will significantly expand. Model calculations show that WTI prices could rise to the range of $118-148 per barrel. If this scenario occurs, it will significantly disrupt the global inflation path and the policy rhythm of major central banks. (Source: Guojin Securities 20260308 &#34;Oil Supply Shock and Price Path Under the Strait of Hormuz Conflict&#34;)
As geopolitical winds rise and black swans frequently appear, oil and coal prices ride the waves again! In addition, high dividend low valuation enhances asset allocation &#34;safety cushion,&#34; &#34;anti-involution&#34; policies and pro-cyclical logic catalyze sector elasticity, and the energy sector is well-equipped for both offense and defense!
The core product Energy ETF (159930) contains only 24 coal and oil stocks, allowing you to seize traditional energy investment opportunities with one click, making it a rare variety in the entire market! This is the only one in the entire market!**
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On March 12th, the energy sector of the A-share market rebounded strongly, with the Energy ETF (159930) rising nearly 3%, attracting over 27 million yuan. International oil prices regained upward momentum, with ICE Brent crude rising over 7%. Analysts believe that high oil prices will dominate industry allocation and suggest focusing on sectors linked to oil prices and industries with relatively small impacts on fundamentals. The rise in oil prices will directly enhance profits in the upstream energy industry and drive an increase in demand for other energy sources

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The crude oil market has surged again, with ICE Brent crude rising over 7%! Coal stocks continue to rise, with Yanzhou Coal Mining hitting the daily limit, and the energy ETF (159930) increasing nearly 3%, attracting over 27 million yuan in capital during the session! The "price increase chain" logic is strong