This is the largest oil supply shock in history.
Goldman Sachs' commodity research team urgently raised its oil price forecasts on March 11, 2026, increasing the fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast from $66 per barrel to $71, while the WTI crude oil forecast was raised from $62 to $67. The reason is that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lasting longer than previously expected. Currently, the estimated impact on Gulf exports has reached 16.2 million barrels per day (16.2mb/d) — an unprecedented scale among all recorded supply shock events.
According to Xinhua News Agency, a Thai cargo ship was attacked while sailing in the Strait of Hormuz on the 11th, and 20 crew members have been rescued and sent to Oman for resettlement. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement reaffirming its absolute jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz. The statement claimed that the United States and its partners have lost their rights to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts warn that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for 60 days, Brent crude oil could soar to $93. If the market falls into extreme panic, the average price in March could even challenge the historical high of $140.
For investors, what really needs to be watched is the non-linear characteristics of the price path: extending the interruption duration from 21 days to 30 days results in only an additional $5 increase in oil prices; however, if it extends further to 60 days, Brent crude oil will break through $93 — this means that the risk premium is accumulating at an accelerating rate.
<h2>The Largest Supply Shock in History: A Gap of 16.2 Million Barrels Per Day is Now a Foregone Conclusion</h2>
In terms of data scale, the current situation has surpassed any previous historical cases. The estimated total impact on Gulf crude oil exports has reached 16.2 million barrels per day, far exceeding the supply disruptions during the 1973 oil crisis, the 1991 Gulf War, and the 2011 Libyan Civil War.
Goldman's scenario model shows that the peak loss of Middle Eastern crude oil production will reach 11 million barrels per day (currently at 6.5mb/d), and will recover relatively quickly thereafter. Even so, the cumulative production loss will still be an astronomical figure:
<blockquote>
In the 21-day (new baseline) scenario, the cumulative loss of Gulf crude oil production is 359 million barrels;
In the 30-day scenario, the loss expands to 526 million barrels;
In the 60-day scenario, the loss reaches 1.094 billion barrels.
</blockquote>
During the blockade, the number of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains low — this real-time data is also a key leading indicator for the market's assessment of the duration of the interruption.
<h2>March Risk Premium: The Market Needs High Prices to &#34;Force Demand Destruction&#34;</h2>
In Goldman Sachs' &#34;Pre-Shock/High Uncertainty&#34; scenario model, the price trend in March follows a unique logic: the market must use sufficiently high prices to force demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling below critical levels.
In the oil market, when supply suddenly decreases significantly (as envisioned here with a reduction of 15 million barrels per day, which accounts for nearly 15% of global total demand), relying solely on inventories is not enough. At this point, prices must soar to a sufficiently high level, high enough that consumers and businesses have to cut back on spending because it becomes &#34;too expensive&#34; (for example, reducing driving, halting factory production, or switching to alternative energy sources)
According to Goldman Sachs' sensitivity analysis, the possible range for the average monthly oil price in March is as follows:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dff73a5d-a558-4457-8eef-786b55bb264c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dff73a5d-a558-4457-8eef-786b55bb264c.png"/>
Analysts warn that the longer the interruption lasts and the lower the market's tolerance for inventory declines, the faster the demand destruction will need to occur, and the higher the peak oil price will need to rise. In the most extreme scenario (120 days of interruption + rapid demand response), short-term market prices could reach $140 per barrel. If the flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish throughout March, oil prices are very likely to exceed the historical high of 2008.
<h2>Policy Rescue: SPR Release Will &#34;Hedge Half&#34; of Inventory Shock</h2>
In the face of an unprecedented supply gap, the global policy response should not be underestimated. Goldman Sachs estimates that the combined release of 254 million barrels of actual Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) globally, along with 31 million barrels of Russian crude oil in transit, could reduce the impact on global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50%—from 617 million barrels to 332 million barrels.
However, there are constraints on the policy tools themselves. In the baseline scenario (flow through the Strait of Hormuz begins to recover on March 21), Goldman Sachs believes that IEA member countries will not release the entire authorized 400 million barrels of SPR. The reasons are:
<blockquote>
The logistical release speed limit of OECD SPR is about 3 million barrels per day;
The release plan is expected to be phased out over 4 weeks, continuing until early June—by which time WTI oil prices may have fallen back to just over $70;
The current stock of IEA emergency reserves is just over 1.2 billion barrels, which is at a relatively low level, and further large-scale mobilization has practical constraints.
</blockquote>
It is worth noting that in scenarios of interruptions lasting 30 days or longer, the release volume of OECD SPR could reach or even exceed the 400 million barrel limit, significantly narrowing the policy buffer space.
For asset allocators, the core contradiction of the current situation is: the baseline scenario remains controllable (Brent at $71 in the fourth quarter), but the cost of tail risks is extremely high. Once the blockade extends to 30 days or even 60 days, oil prices will enter a non-linear upward channel, which will have systemic impacts on inflation expectations, energy stock valuations, and macro policy paths.
Before the situation clarifies, March oil prices will continue to be supported by a large-scale risk premium—the market uses today's high prices to hedge against potentially larger gaps tomorrow. Any signals about a quick end to the conflict will be the strongest downward catalyst for oil prices; while any news about the continuation of the blockade means that the upside potential is far from capped.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven has raised the fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast from $66 per barrel to $71, while the WTI crude oil forecast has been raised from $62 to $67

Goldman Sachs warns that the current impact on oil exports from the Persian Gulf has reached an unprecedented 16.2 million barrels per day. The market must enforce demand destruction with sufficiently high prices to prevent inventories from falling below critical levels. The longer the disruption lasts and the lower the market's tolerance for inventory declines, the faster demand destruction will be required, and the higher the peak oil prices will need to rise. In the most extreme scenario, short-term market prices could reach $140 per barrel. If the flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish throughout March, oil prices are very likely to exceed the historical high of 2008

- Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for Q4 2026 due to an unprecedented supply shock in the Persian Gulf, now estimated at 16.2 million barrels per day.  
- The situation follows an attack on a Thai cargo ship, leading Iran to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, causing concerns that prices could soar to $93 or even $140 per barrel depending on the duration of the supply disruption.  
- Global policy responses, including the release of strategic oil reserves, may mitigate some impacts, but the potential for prolonged high prices remains significant.

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