"Forecast" Morgan Stanley's performance forecast for Alibaba's third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Table)

AASTOCKS

2026.03.12 06:37

Alibaba-W (09988.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2026 ending December 2025 next Thursday (19th). Morgan Stanley released a report in early January, listing its forecasts for Alibaba (09988.HK) for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026 ending December 2025:

Performance Breakdown│Fiscal Year 2026 Third Quarter Forecast│Year-on-Year Change

Consolidated Revenue│RMB 286.2 billion│+2.2%

China E-commerce Group Revenue│RMB 163.679 billion│+7.8%

-> Customer Management Revenue (CMR)│RMB 105.736 billion│+3%

-> Instant Retail Revenue│RMB 21.275 billion│+55%

International Digital Commerce Group Revenue│RMB 40.523 billion│+7.3%

Cloud Intelligence Group Revenue│RMB 42.852 billion│+35%

All Other Revenue│RMB 65.545 billion│-25.5%

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Consolidated Adjusted EBITA│RMB 30.373 billion│-44.6%

China E-commerce Group EBITA│RMB 36.009 billion│-40.6%
International Digital Commerce Group EBITA│Loss of RMB 1.418 billion│Narrowed by 71.4%
Cloud Intelligence Group EBITA│RMB 3.857 billion│+22.9%
All Other EBITA│Loss of RMB 7.013 billion│Widened by 117.1%

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Non-GAAP Net Profit│RMB 30.373 billion│-44.6%

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Adjusted EBITA Margin│10.6%│-9 percentage points

China E-commerce Group Adjusted EBITA Margin│22%│-17.9 percentage points
International Digital Commerce Group Adjusted EBITA Margin│-3.5%│-9.6 percentage points
Cloud Intelligence Group Adjusted EBITA Margin│9%│-0.9 percentage points
All Other Adjusted EBITA Margin│-10.7%│-7 percentage points