Investment Ratings and Target Prices for Alibaba by Major Institutions (Table)

Alibaba (09988.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2026 ending December 2025 next Thursday (19th). Due to weak consumer spending in the mainland and intense industry competition, it is expected that the growth of its China e-commerce customer management revenue (CMR) will slow down (affected by the base of payment fees starting from September 2024 and the impact of full-site push technology). Losses in instant e-commerce and investments in artificial intelligence will offset the solid growth factors in cloud business. According to the forecasts of 8 brokerages, Alibaba's non-GAAP net profit for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 is expected to be between RMB 25.099 billion and RMB 31.858 billion, compared to RMB 51.066 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 37.6% to 50.8%, with a median of RMB 28.936 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 1.8 times (compared to the adjusted net profit of RMB 10.352 billion in the second quarter).

According to the forecasts of 14 brokerages, Alibaba's adjusted EBITA for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 is expected to be between RMB 24.264 billion and RMB 33.7 billion, compared to RMB 54.853 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.64% to 55.8%, with a median of RMB 27.585 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 49.7%. Investors will focus on the group's increased investments in artificial intelligence and instant retail, both of which have led to increased losses in the "other businesses" segment. They will also observe the slowdown in Alibaba's e-commerce customer management revenue (CMR) growth and outlook guidance, GMV growth of Taobao Flash Sale, subsidies, and future operational synergies (how to strengthen TaoTian, TaoShan, FeiZhu, and GaoDe, etc.). The market will also pay attention to the instant e-commerce strategy, how the company gradually shifts its focus to optimizing unit economics and operational efficiency, the growth of cloud business, GPU supply, AI business capital expenditures, operational conditions and strategies of QianWen, and the progress of the potential spin-off of the chip business "Pingtouge" for independent listing.

The table below lists the ratings and target prices for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) from 12 brokerages:

Brokerage│Investment Rating│Target Price

Citi│Buy│HKD 218

DBS│Buy│HKD 213

JP Morgan│Buy│HKD 210

CMB International│Overweight│HKD 198

CICC│Outperform│HKD 197

Citigroup│Buy│HKD 195

CMB International│Outperform│HKD 195

Puyin International│Buy│HKD 195

HSBC Global Research│Buy│HKD 188

UBS│Buy│HKD 185

Bank of America Securities│Buy│HKD 176

Huatai Securities│Buy│HKD 175.3

------------------------------------------------------ The table below lists the ratings and target prices for Alibaba's American Depositary Shares (BABA.US) from 18 brokerages:

Brokerage │ Investment Rating │ Target Price

Nomura │ Buy │ $237

Jefferies │ Buy │ $225

JP Morgan │ Buy │ $215

DBS │ Buy │ $215

CICC │ Outperform │ $204

CMB International │ Overweight │ $204

Haitong International │ Outperform │ $203

Citi │ Outperform │ $200

China International Capital Corporation │ Outperform │ $200

Puyin International │ Buy │ $200

Citigroup │ Buy │ $197

Daiwa │ Buy │ $197

Barclays │ Overweight │ $195

HSBC Global Research │ Buy │ $193

UBS │ Buy │ $190

Morgan Stanley │ Overweight │ $180

Bank of America Securities │ Buy │ $180

Huatai Securities │ Buy │ $180