Author｜Xie Zhao Qing
Editor｜Liu Peng
&#34;Windfall&#34; — Hong Kong local owner Florence expressed after selling a new apartment in Sai Kung in the last week of February this year, &#34;I bought it less than 8 months ago and made a net profit of over HKD 1 million.&#34;
The process of her making this money was relatively simple: at the end of May 2025, when the Hong Kong property market was still sluggish, she purchased a 2-bedroom unit in the Sierra Sea project by Sun Hung Kai located in Sai Kung for HKD 6.95 million (Hong Kong pre-sale properties cannot be traded) and was scheduled to move in by December 2025. At that time, the Hong Kong property market had clearly warmed up, and several agencies inquired about the price. In the end, she sold this new apartment for HKD 8.33 million.
This is not an isolated case. Xu Kezhi, Senior Regional Sales Director at Centaline Property in Ma On Shan, told Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; that in the past two months, his team has handled about 40 similar &#34;short-term speculation&#34; transactions in the Sierra Sea project, with the highest return approaching 40%.
Among these sellers, most were long-term investors primarily focused on rental income. &#34;Seeing the market slightly improve and having profit space, they chose to cash out early for security.&#34; Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman and President of the Residential Department at Centaline Property Asia Pacific, told Tencent News' &#34;Observation,&#34; &#34;They may regret it later because it will be hard to buy back at the current selling price.&#34;
&#34;Now the Hong Kong property market is like a person recovering from a serious illness, able to walk again after getting out of the hospital, and the condition has clearly improved, with recovery starting in the second half of 2025.&#34; Chen Yongjie optimistically believes that the price increase in the Hong Kong property market will exceed 15% in the coming year.
Regarding the &#34;short-term speculation&#34; trend that has emerged in the Hong Kong market over the past two months, many people in the Hong Kong real estate and financial circles, including Chen Yongjie and Xu Kezhi, unanimously believe there is no need for concern, as this is just a case.
Chen Yongjie told Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; that the Hong Kong property market has just begun to recover, and there is still a long way to go before professional speculators appear on a large scale.
He stated that after nearly five years of economic turbulence, the once active and financially strong professional speculators in the Hong Kong property market have disappeared, &#34;The new generation of speculators has yet to be seen.&#34;
<h2>Individual &#34;Short-term Speculation&#34; Returns</h2>
&#34;The key to the success or failure of short-term speculation is timing.&#34; Chen Yongjie summarized that the new project Sierra Sea under Sun Hung Kai, located in Sai Kung, completed its handover on December 1, and within less than two months, a wave of &#34;sales frenzy&#34; among owners emerged — the timing of buying and selling by sellers was just right, perfectly coinciding with the turning point of the Hong Kong property market.
Public data shows that Sierra Sea is a super-large project by Sun Hung Kai in Sai Kung, expected to build 46 residential buildings, providing nearly 10,000 housing units. The first batch of properties (including phases 1A2 and 1B, over 1,500 units) will start selling in April-May 2025.
The selling time coincided with the trough of the Hong Kong property market. According to data from the Hong Kong government, the residential price index was 286.5 points in both April and May 2025, the lowest since August 2016
This also means that Hong Kong property prices have fallen to levels close to those of nearly 10 years ago during April-May last year.
The completion date for the property is December 1, 2025. The Hong Kong property market has been on a continuous upward trend since May 2025, with the residential price index rising from 286.5 points to 299.8 points in December 2025. The latest price index released by the Hong Kong government shows that the index has adjusted to 301.4 points in January 2026.
New properties in Hong Kong can only enter the secondary market for sale after obtaining the occupancy permit; prior transactions of &#34;pre-sold&#34; units cannot be transferred. The first batch of units at Sierra Sea will be available for occupancy on December 1, 2025.
&#34;Shortly after the handover, transactions began to emerge,&#34; said Xu Kezhi, Senior Regional Sales Director of Centaline Property in Ma On Shan, to Tencent News' &#34;Observation.&#34; Over the past two months, he and his team have handled about 40 secondary transactions for this project. Xu Kezhi's team is also the sales champion for this project.
According to statistics from Tencent News' &#34;Observation,&#34; as of February 27, 45 secondary transactions have been completed and registered with the government, of which 19 units have a paper profit exceeding 20%. Many unit types in this property are priced over HKD 5 million, meaning that many &#34;short-term&#34; sellers have actual profits exceeding HKD 1 million, with a holding period of about 8 months—from purchase in April-May 2025 to sale in January-February 2026.
&#34;In fact, the number of signed secondary transactions far exceeds this figure,&#34; Xu Kezhi revealed, stating that it has surpassed 100 units, with most transactions only completing the signing and not yet finishing the filing procedures. According to him, most new buyers are for self-occupancy needs.
These &#34;short-term&#34; sellers were originally &#34;long-term rental&#34; investors, but after seeing the profit effect, they chose to sell. There is no time limit on how long a property must be held before selling in Hong Kong.
Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; learned that a local investor purchased a 3-bedroom unit for HKD 8.2 million, originally planning to rent it out for HKD 25,000. However, after the handover coincided with the Spring Festival, it remained unrented until early January. He then sold the unit for HKD 10 million.
Xu Kezhi believes that these &#34;short-term&#34; sellers may see a floating profit opportunity of about HKD 1 million and &#34;choose to cash in.&#34;
In addition to new properties, some short-term traders are also focusing on the secondary market. A real estate agent based in the New Territories told Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; that there have been some short-term trading cases in the secondary market priced at HKD 4 million and below. In the past two months, he has handled three similar transactions, one of which lasted about six months, with a paper profit exceeding HKD 800,000. These buyers include not only long-term rental clients but also some renovation team owners—who buy at low prices, renovate, and then sell, &#34;earning not only a premium but also some renovation fees.&#34;
However, this price segment is still mainly composed of self-occupying buyers, with a low proportion of short-term trading. &#34;A Hong Kong real estate analyst told Tencent News' 'Observation.' Centaline Property's data shows that the transaction volume in this price segment reached a nine-year high in 2025, exceeding 12,000 units
This is because in February 2025, the Hong Kong government will reduce the stamp duty on properties priced at HKD 4 million and below to HKD 100, allowing &#34;short-term trading&#34; transaction costs to be controlled at around HKD 5,000, including legal fees and some documentation fees.
&#34;Undoubtedly, the Hong Kong property market has indeed improved and is entering an upward trend,&#34; Chen Yongjie told Tencent News' &#34;Observation.&#34; This is also one of the reasons for the rise of short-term trading in Hong Kong.
Data from the Hong Kong government also shows that property prices have risen for eight consecutive months. In 2025, a total of 20,525 new homes were sold in Hong Kong, reaching a six-year high; second-hand homes sold 39,843 units, hitting a four-year high. In Chen Yongjie's words, since the turning point appeared in April-May 2025, the Hong Kong property market has continuously entered an upward trend: both volume and price have risen. The price data from Centaline Property also reflects this. As shown in the figure below.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OvGqVo1Stz6AdwL6fY4iIxC-qbEa8GrU2yxV56mfwsOD4AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OvGqVo1Stz6AdwL6fY4iIxC-qbEa8GrU2yxV56mfwsOD4AA/641"/>
Local leading developers in Hong Kong have also begun to hold back sales and even raise prices. A transaction price list for YOHOHUB from SHK PPT obtained by Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; shows that the development sold units on the 15th, 16th, and 12th floors through bidding on January 28, February 13, and February 24, respectively, with prices per square meter approximately HKD 10,000 higher than those sold in December 2025 and early January 2026 for the 21st, 19th, and 18th floors. Generally, higher floors command higher prices.
Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman of Centaline Property's Asia Pacific region and President of the Residential Department, believes that &#34;these short-term traders are mostly individual buyers, unlike the wealthy professional property speculators in the past, who might make hundreds of thousands or even millions and then exit the market.&#34;
He told Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; that these current short-term individual traders may very well regret it in the future, &#34;because it will be difficult to buy back the same property at the current selling price.&#34; He optimistically predicts that the Hong Kong property market will maintain an upward trend for the next year or even longer.
<h2>Difficult to Sustain</h2>
&#34;I am not worried about the current short-term trading trend because it cannot be sustained; it is just a temporary phenomenon,&#34; Chen Yongjie told Tencent News' &#34;Observation.&#34;
After Sierra Sea's completion, short-term selling for profit is an exception: buying at the lowest point and selling during the rising period. Chen Yongjie explained that there are not many similar new developments. Among the new homes launched when property prices were relatively low last year, only Woodies in Wan Chai is expected to complete in July this year.
Xu Kezhi speculates that this development has the opportunity for &#34;short-term trading,&#34; as it is located in Hong Kong's core business district, where two-bedroom units were priced at only over HKD 7 million at that time, &#34;such properties are very limited and cannot form a property speculation trend.&#34;
More critically, the overall increase in Hong Kong property prices remains very small. Data released by the Hong Kong government shows that property prices are expected to accumulate a growth of 3.25% by 2025. Chen Yongjie describes the current Hong Kong property market as &#34;a gentle recovery after a severe illness, with a long way to go before full recovery.&#34;
The current market is different from the strong rebound following the continuous decline in the Hong Kong property market in 2016. In 2017, the cumulative increase in Hong Kong property prices reached as high as 15.1%, with a continuous rise for 21 months, during which 14 months set new records for price increases.
Many individuals in the Hong Kong real estate and financial circles, including Chen Yongjie, unanimously believe that Hong Kong property prices are still down more than 30% compared to historical highs, stating that &#34;investors' market confidence remains insufficient, while first-time homebuyers have gradually entered the market.&#34;
However, the pressure from unsold primary market properties in Hong Kong remains significant. Public data shows that by the end of 2025, there will still be 18,694 new homes for sale in Hong Kong, involving over 300 developments, despite the fact that more than 20,000 units were sold in the past year: the pressure to sell has not significantly eased. The market expects that in 2026, approximately 17,000 new units will be completed.
Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman of Centaline Property's Asia Pacific region and President of the Residential Department, told Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; that &#34;the current short-term speculators are not mainstream property investors, and there will not be a large number of professional property investors in 2026 unless a major positive development causes property prices to skyrocket.&#34;
&#34;The Hong Kong property market has gone through several years of turmoil, and the well-established local speculators have basically disappeared, gradually withdrawing from the Hong Kong capital market like their mainland counterparts.&#34; Chen Yongjie pointed out that these veteran speculators, in addition to trading residential properties, have concentrated more funds in office buildings and shops in Hong Kong, but the prices of these two types of properties have mostly halved, &#34;their strength has been dragged down.&#34;
Compared to the current short-term speculators, veteran speculators are stronger and more patient. Many individuals, including Chen Yongjie, have expressed to Tencent News' &#34;Observation&#34; that it is currently unknown where the next round of strong speculators will come from

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The Hong Kong property market is warming up, and owner Florence has made a profit of over HKD 1 million through short-term trading of new homes within 8 months. She purchased the Sai Kung Sierra Sea project for HKD 6.95 million and later sold it for HKD 8.33 million. A report from Centaline Property indicates that similar short-term trading activities have increased recently, with returns reaching as high as 40%. Real estate experts predict that the Hong Kong property market will see an increase of over 15% in the coming year. Although short-term trading has returned, experts believe the market is still in the recovery phase, and professional property speculators have not yet emerged

Earned a million in 8 months! The recovering Hong Kong property market sees a resurgence in short-term trading