As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, speculation is spreading in the energy trading circle about whether the U.S. government has quietly intervened in the crude oil futures market, prompting a warning from the head of the world's largest derivatives exchange.
Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, candidly stated at an industry conference this week that if the Trump administration attempts to suppress oil prices by intervening in the futures market, it will face a &#34;biblical disaster.&#34;
He warned that U.S. government intervention in commodity pricing would severely erode market confidence. He emphasized that once investors have doubts about the fairness of pricing in key commodities, the consequences could be unimaginable.
CME Group operates the core exchange for U.S. crude oil futures, and it is rare for its leader to issue a warning about potential government intervention, reflecting the current market's heightened vigilance regarding policy uncertainty.
Reports citing sources familiar with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicate that the U.S. Treasury has not intervened in the crude oil market. Last week, Wall Street Journal mentioned that the U.S. Treasury is evaluating several proposals to lower oil prices, including direct intervention in the futures market.
On Monday, Brent crude prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel before rapidly reversing and falling back above $80, an unusual trend that has led energy traders to widely speculate whether the U.S. Treasury has quietly entered the market.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d49fb26d-75aa-4758-a7db-8ecaad067d02.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d49fb26d-75aa-4758-a7db-8ecaad067d02.png"/> (On Monday, U.S. oil plummeted over 31% from its daily high)
<h2>Large Order Movements Spark Speculation, Consulting Firms Cannot Completely Rule Out Treasury Intervention</h2>
This week, the oil market saw several large, unidentified trades, prompting energy traders and consulting firms to scramble to identify the buyers or sellers behind them.
Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, stated that the firm has been receiving inquiries from clients this week, questioning whether the U.S. government is behind a series of unusual large orders. Skirrow said:
<blockquote>
Our clients have been asking who the large sellers are, and there is speculation that the sellers may be from the U.S. Treasury.
</blockquote>
He also pointed out that the U.S. government has previously intervened in other markets, such as foreign exchange, which makes the speculation not entirely unfounded.
The consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, founded by former U.S. White House energy advisor Bob McNally, noted in a client report that the idea of the U.S. Treasury selling near-month crude oil futures contracts is &#34;gaining unusual attention.&#34;
The firm pointed out that this move would be &#34;unprecedented,&#34; but &#34;given the current panic situation,&#34; &#34;this possibility cannot be completely ruled out.&#34;
<h2>Energy Secretary's Post Misinterpreted by the Market, U.S. Officials' Words and Actions Further Shake the Market</h2>
Aside from rumors of intervention by the Ministry of Finance, other actions by government officials this week have also left oil market investors confused.
According to CCTV News, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media on Tuesday, stating that the U.S. Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which caught the market off guard and led to a sharp decline in oil prices. However, the post was deleted minutes later, and the White House subsequently denied that the Navy had escorted any vessels through this critical waterway.
John Evans, an analyst at London-based PVM Oil Associates, wrote in a report on Thursday, &#34;It is still unclear whether Wright's post was yet another complete blunder or a more serious deliberate manipulation.&#34;
Wall Street Insight mentioned that Energy Secretary Wright stated on Thursday that the U.S. military is &#34;not yet prepared&#34; to implement escort operations before the end of this month.
The combination of these events has left oil market participants facing dual uncertainties regarding geopolitical situations and policy signals while assessing supply prospects, making it difficult for market volatility to subside in the short term

In recent days, the sharp fluctuations in oil prices have sparked speculation among energy traders that the Treasury Department may have intervened in the futures market. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, stated that the agency has been receiving inquiries from clients this week, questioning whether the U.S. government has been behind a series of unusually large orders, "The market speculates that the sellers may be from the U.S. Treasury Department."

- The ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to rising oil prices and speculation about possible US government intervention in the crude oil futures market.  
- CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that such intervention would undermine market confidence and could result in significant negative consequences.  
- Recent large transactions in the oil market have fueled speculation about potential government involvement, while conflicting statements from officials have added to investor uncertainty and volatility in the oil market.

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Market speculates that the U.S. Treasury has taken action! CME Group President: If the U.S. intervenes in crude oil futures, it will lead to "catastrophic consequences."