The sharp escalation of the situation in the Middle East has once again become a &#34;black swan&#34; for global capital markets. On March 12, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office, clearly stating that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and warning that all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should be closed immediately, or they would face attacks. This statement completely shattered market expectations for a quick easing of the war, triggering severe fluctuations in global asset prices.
Oil prices soar to $100, inflation clouds re-emerge
The international crude oil market reacted most violently. Brent crude futures rose by $8.48 on Thursday, closing at $100.46 per barrel, an increase of 9.22%, marking the first time it has crossed the $100 mark since August 2022. U.S. crude futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange also rose by $8.48, closing at $95.73 per barrel, an increase of 9.72%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O9TW3W8g5MTfdWTVyZYCzY3AIZbFYP95T5b7jCe4_AyEcAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O9TW3W8g5MTfdWTVyZYCzY3AIZbFYP95T5b7jCe4_AyEcAA/641"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OJmxVBFKhwQYGh3lcTU44jtSUu82-8yDBQb2tqldf2XV0AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OJmxVBFKhwQYGh3lcTU44jtSUu82-8yDBQb2tqldf2XV0AA/641"/>
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that this war is causing the most severe oil supply disruption in history. In its latest monthly report, the agency pointed out that Gulf countries in the Middle East have cut crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 10% of global demand. Although IEA member countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, Energy Aspects analysts noted that this stockpile mainly consists of crude oil and can only compensate for about 25 days of current transportation disruptions.
White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt stated that to address the surge in oil prices, the Trump administration is considering temporarily exempting the century-old Jones Act, which regulates domestic shipping in the U.S., as this exemption would help alleviate national fuel transportation pressures. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted that the U.S. Navy is currently unable to provide escort for vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, saying, &#34;This will happen soon, but now is not the time.&#34;
U.S. stocks plummet across the board, tech giants cannot escape sell-off
Hit by both geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, the U.S. stock market fell sharply on Thursday. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped by 739.42 points, a decrease of 1.56%, closing at 46,677.85 points; the S&amp;P 500 index fell by 103.18 points, a decrease of 1.52%, closing at 6,672.62 points; and the NASDAQ Composite Index dropped by 404.15 points, a decrease of 1.78%, closing at 22,311.98 points.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O9YlsBxc1oQ9lrBmf1_L_LbLeFr0KJEUbhvg4P7xLvHyQAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O9YlsBxc1oQ9lrBmf1_L_LbLeFr0KJEUbhvg4P7xLvHyQAA/641"/>
Among the 11 major sectors of the S&amp;P 500 Index, only the energy sector rose by 1.0%, while the other sectors generally declined. The industrial sector fell by 2.5%, leading the declines; the consumer discretionary sector dropped by 2.21%, the information technology/technology sector fell by 1.72%, and the financial sector decreased by 1.62%.
Large tech stocks collectively plummeted. Tesla fell by 3.14%, Meta dropped by 2.55%, Apple decreased by 1.94%, Google-A fell by 1.67%, NVIDIA dropped by 1.54%, Amazon decreased by 1.47%, and Microsoft fell by 0.73%. Chip stocks faced even more severe selling, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 3.43%, Intel falling over 5%, TSMC dropping 5%, and Microchip Technology, Texas Instruments, and NXP Semiconductors all falling over 4%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OHdRgftDIE4ftLaTd1t_oMV9mhURMCntiE01zh51KpH0MAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OHdRgftDIE4ftLaTd1t_oMV9mhURMCntiE01zh51KpH0MAA/641"/>
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, stated: &#34;The market realizes that the prospects for resolving the Middle East conflict are increasingly bleak, and the current mindset is to sell first and ask questions later. There are almost no safe havens except for the energy sector.&#34;
Financial Sector Under Pressure, Private Credit Risks Emerge
The financial sector has become another disaster area. JP Morgan downgraded the valuations of some loans to private credit funds on Thursday, with its stock falling by 1.6%; Morgan Stanley restricted redemptions for a certain private credit fund, with its stock dropping by 4.1%. Swiss private equity firm Partners Group warned that as credit quality deteriorates, the default rate for private credit could double in the coming years.
Bank stocks fell across the board, with Goldman Sachs dropping over 4%, Citigroup falling over 3%, Bank of America decreasing nearly 3%, and Wells Fargo dropping over 2%. Airline stocks also performed poorly, with Boeing falling over 4%, Southwest Airlines dropping over 7%, and United Airlines decreasing over 4%.
Notably, the surge in fertilizer prices triggered by the Middle East war has significantly boosted the stock prices of fertilizer producers. Agricultural fertilizer companies reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation have risen due to soaring prices, with the S&amp;P Fertilizer &amp; Agricultural Chemicals Index increasing by 4.9%, and CF Industries' stock soaring over 13%, reaching an all-time high. Chemical companies LyondellBasell and Dow rose by 10.3% and 9.3%, respectively, after Citigroup upgraded their ratings, believing that disruptions in the Middle East supply chain will create new export opportunities for these companies.
Most Chinese Concept Stocks Decline, XPeng and Nio Rise Against the Trend
The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.02%. Individual stock performance was notably mixed, with XPeng rising by 3.55%, Nio increasing by 1.19%, Tencent Music up by 2.47%, and NetEase rising by 0.88%; Futu Holdings fell by 6.31%, Beike dropped by 3.49%, Li Auto decreased by 2.52%, Baidu fell by 1.59%, Alibaba dropped by 1.52%, and Pinduoduo decreased by 1.28%
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-s7L8jxuBJ-4qRxwa0mP6zHOxGquPZXgQ9eZkiQoGI9IAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-s7L8jxuBJ-4qRxwa0mP6zHOxGquPZXgQ9eZkiQoGI9IAA/641"/>
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Plummet
The surge in oil prices is profoundly changing market expectations for monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on March 17, and the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but investors will closely monitor the inflation forecasts in the latest economic projections.
According to Lu Zhe, chief economist at Soochow Securities Co., Ltd., if oil prices remain between $80 and $100 per barrel, the U.S. CPI should reference a month-on-month central tendency of 0.3% to 0.4% over the next six months, with the year-on-year CPI growth rate expected to be between 2.8% and 3.5% by September. If oil prices spiral out of control upwards, U.S. inflation is likely to replicate the double peaks of the stagflation period in the 1970s.
Fitch Ratings has raised its average price forecast for Brent crude oil in its latest &#34;Global Economic Outlook March 2026&#34; from $63 per barrel to $70 per barrel. However, if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel and remain at that level, Fitch expects global GDP to decline by 0.4% after four quarters, and the U.S. inflation rate to rise by 1.2 to 1.5 percentage points.
Detrick stated, &#34;The surge in oil prices means the market is beginning to reassess the path of monetary policy. Behind the rise in oil prices is the market's realization that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates later this year is rapidly diminishing.&#34; Federal funds futures indicate that the market expects only a 19 basis point cut by the end of the year, meaning investors are no longer fully betting on a 25 basis point cut this year. Goldman Sachs has delayed its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, now forecasting a 25 basis point cut in September and December, having previously expected a new round of rate cuts to begin in June.
Corporate Dynamics: Amazon Bonds Snapped Up, Google Maps Receives AI Upgrade
Despite market turbulence, some companies continue to demonstrate strong financing capabilities. This week, Amazon issued $37 billion in bonds in the U.S. across 11 maturities, with subscriptions from asset management firms reaching as high as $126 billion, nearing historical records. On Wednesday, the company also issued bonds in the euro market for the first time, amounting to €14.5 billion (approximately $16.8 billion), setting a record for the largest corporate bond issuance in euro market history.
Tech giants continue to bet on artificial intelligence. Microsoft and Meta each added nearly $50 billion in data center leasing commitments in the most recent quarter to support AI development. The world's largest cloud computing companies, including Oracle and Amazon, have surpassed $700 billion in total commitments for future data center leases. Alphabet is undergoing the largest upgrade of its mapping products in over a decade, launching a new feature called &#34;Ask Maps&#34; in Google Maps, allowing users to interact with the application as if conversing with a chatbot

.DJI

U.S. stocks suffered a sharp decline under the influence of geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, with all three major indices falling more than 1.5%. Meanwhile, international oil prices surged to $100, with Brent crude futures rising by 9.22%. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has intensified market worries about supply disruptions, and the International Energy Agency has warned that oil supply interruptions could be the most severe in history. The White House is considering temporarily waiving the Jones Act to alleviate fuel transportation pressures

- The recent escalation in the Middle East has caused significant volatility in global capital markets, with oil prices surging to $100 per barrel following warnings from Iran's new supreme leader.  
- The International Energy Agency reported severe oil supply disruptions, prompting the U.S. to consider amending the Jones Act to alleviate fuel transport pressures.  
- Stock markets fell sharply, led by declines in technology stocks, while some fertilizer producers saw gains due to rising prices driven by regional conflict.

腾讯新闻 - 财经

United States Oil Fund LP

Proshares Big Data Refiners ETF

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Us Brent Oil

SPDR Energy Select

VG S&P 500

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

SPDR S&P 500

S&P 500

iShares Core S&P 500

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

VanEck Oil Services ETF

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

NASDAQ Composite Index

Dow Jones Utility Average

U.S. stocks faced a Black Thursday: the three major indices collectively plunged over 1.5%, Brent crude surged to $100, and inflation clouds re-emerged