Every reporter: Zhao Linan Every editor: Wei Guanhong
Recently, the intensification of international geopolitical games has made the fluctuations in the Strait of Hormuz resemble a &#34;black swan,&#34; once again stirring the sensitive nerves of the global energy market.
In the face of the crisis of strait blockade and the threat of soaring oil prices, global inflation panic is quietly spreading. In this global energy test, can China's industry remain unscathed? How much longer must humanity walk to escape the fate of being &#34;choked&#34; by oil?
With these core questions in macroeconomics and energy transition, on March 13, a reporter from the &#34;Daily Economic News&#34; exclusively interviewed Lin Boqiang, a distinguished professor of the &#34;Changjiang Scholars&#34; program of the Ministry of Education and the director of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University.
As an authoritative expert who has long been engaged in low-carbon clean transition and energy economics and policy, Lin Boqiang believes that the sudden geopolitical crisis precisely confirms the correctness of China's adherence to the energy substitution path of &#34;wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and electric vehicles.&#34;
He pointed out that China's commercial and strategic oil reserves are currently sufficient, which gives China a strong &#34;immunity&#34; against short-term oil price fluctuations.
Looking ahead, with breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology and explosive growth in the energy storage industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to soar to 80% or even 90%. By then, China will truly build a highly resilient energy security defense line.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OH6j5NHQySdnuWwz_LQBHAz5_N7CY18aCYMcWJtmjRMnwAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OH6j5NHQySdnuWwz_LQBHAz5_N7CY18aCYMcWJtmjRMnwAA/641"/>
Lin Boqiang Image source: Provided by the interviewee
<h2>Strait Crisis? A Counterproof of China's Path</h2>
&#34;Up to now, oil is still the largest source of energy consumption globally, far exceeding other energy varieties.&#34; Lin Boqiang pointed out the current state of global energy consumption right at the beginning of the interview.
He emphasized that a crisis in critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz will directly impact the global economy. This impact is not only intuitively reflected in the violent fluctuations of crude oil prices but will also profoundly affect the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain. The impact of oil on the global economy is the largest among all energy varieties.
So, can humanity completely break free from dependence on oil?
Lin Boqiang, who holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and serves as the editor-in-chief of the top international energy economics journal &#34;Energy Economics,&#34; has a clear understanding of this. He candidly stated, &#34;It is currently difficult to completely stop using oil, but it is entirely possible to significantly reduce dependence on oil through the vigorous development of wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and electric vehicles.&#34;
Lin Boqiang pointed out that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has actually played a key proving role—it not only affirms the correctness of China's vigorous development of &#34;wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and electric vehicles&#34; as an alternative path but is also a significant boon for the new energy industry. For decades, the industry has generally assumed that the Strait of Hormuz would not close, but the emergence of this crisis undoubtedly serves as a wake-up call for countries around the world and will greatly accelerate the transition of various countries towards an &#34;energy localization&#34; strategy
However, energy localization is &#34;easier said than done.&#34;
Lin Boqiang analyzed that the premise of localization is having resource endowments. &#34;Many countries lack oil and gas resources, and some don't have any fossil energy at all. Without resource endowments, it is difficult to truly control energy supply in one's own hands.&#34; Fortunately, although the distribution of fossil energy is extremely uneven among countries, wind and solar energy are universally available. Therefore, for the vast majority of countries, the only feasible path towards energy localization is to vigorously develop wind power and photovoltaics.
In this transformation process, China has already taken the lead in the world. Lin Boqiang stated that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has now exceeded 50%. &#34;In southern regions, currently for every 10 cars sold, 6 to 7 are electric vehicles, which have already gained an absolute advantage.&#34;
Lin Boqiang believes that although there is still a long way to go to achieve the ultimate goal of completely eliminating fossil energy, and the overseas expansion of wind and solar power still faces complex geopolitical resistance, China's path to significantly reducing oil dependence has already been strongly validated in reality.
<h2>Inflation Panic? China is More &#34;Immune&#34; to Oil Price Fluctuations</h2>
With the fluctuations in global oil prices, market concerns about imported inflation are increasing. However, in Lin Boqiang's view, in the face of high international oil prices in the short term, China's macro economy has considerable resilience and &#34;immunity.&#34;
&#34;Because oil is globally priced, consumers will definitely feel that it is expensive when they go to refuel,&#34; Lin Boqiang explained. &#34;But China's oil supply is still very ample at present. Our commercial reserves combined with strategic reserves can support us for over 100 days without any problem.&#34; He believes that as long as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not prolonged, short-term fluctuations will not lead to a &#34;supply disruption&#34; crisis domestically.
The deeper confidence comes from China's unique energy consumption structure. Lin Boqiang provided a set of highly contrasting data: in China's current energy structure, the combined proportion of oil and gas is only about 27%; in contrast, the proportion of oil and gas in the United States is as high as 72%, and in the European Union, it also exceeds 60%.
&#34;The high proportion of oil and gas in Europe and the United States means that the impact of rising oil prices on their economies is immediate,&#34; Lin Boqiang pointed out. &#34;But for China, the overall impact of oil price fluctuations on the macro economy and upstream and downstream is relatively small, because its proportion in the energy structure is relatively small.&#34;
In addition, Lin Boqiang stated that domestic oil price fluctuations are also subject to moderate government intervention, with state-owned enterprises playing an important buffering role. Therefore, as long as the crisis does not evolve into a long-term protracted battle, the impact on the Chinese economy will be very limited.
Although there are no immediate concerns, long-term vigilance cannot be reduced. Lin Boqiang reminded that China's dependence on foreign oil and gas imports is still at a high level of over 70%. To ensure energy security, China has established four major energy import channels to diversify risks. These four channels include: liquefied natural gas (LNG) channels (of which about 30% need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz), Middle Eastern oil channels (about 50% of the oil imported from the Middle East passes through the Strait of Hormuz), Russian oil channels, and the Central Asian oil and gas channels that cover the West-to-East gas transmission
&#34;In the face of a crisis, the best strategy is still to reduce the external dependence on oil and gas.&#34; Lin Boqiang provided his policy recommendations: the core strategy remains to steadfastly promote the combination of &#34;wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and electric vehicles.&#34;
<h2>Breakthrough Weapon? Solid-State Batteries and Energy Storage Will Explode</h2>
As the head of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, Lin Boqiang has identified the &#34;ultimate weapon&#34; for China's energy breakthrough in two key technologies: solid-state batteries and energy storage technology, backed by his extensive experience with hundreds of academic papers.
Lin Boqiang believes that, according to various statistics, the transportation sector consumes about 57% to 62% of China's oil. Therefore, the electric vehicle industry is undoubtedly key to solving oil dependence. Lin Boqiang predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will not only quickly surpass current levels but will ultimately reach 70% to 80% without any issues, and it may even be as high as 80% to 90%.
&#34;The trend of new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles in the south will be very rapid.&#34; Lin Boqiang also emphasized that the current northern market is still constrained by the pain point of battery endurance degradation in low-temperature environments, and the key to completely solving this problem lies in overcoming solid-state battery technology. Although the cost of solid-state batteries is still relatively high at present, &#34;it may still be tens of thousands of yuan more expensive for the common people,&#34; Lin Boqiang firmly believes that once the scale of solid-state batteries increases, costs will naturally decrease.
He predicts that by 2030 or even earlier, with the improvement of solid-state battery economics, new energy vehicles will be fully popularized.
In addition to the transportation sector, artificial intelligence also poses new challenges to the energy structure. Will the large-scale application of AI trigger a new energy crisis?
Lin Boqiang clearly stated that the massive computations of AI mainly consume electricity and do not pose a direct impact on oil and gas demand. In the face of surging electricity demand, future increments will mainly rely on coal power, wind power, photovoltaics, as well as nuclear and hydropower, which have longer development cycles. However, under strict constraints on carbon emissions, the development space for coal power is relatively limited. Although the stability of China's power grid still mainly relies on coal power, the utilization hours of coal power are gradually decreasing; coal power is cheap in the short term but expensive in the long term, and it is extremely uneconomical in the long run.
&#34;In order to maintain large-scale stable growth of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, energy storage is an absolutely critical hurdle that must be overcome during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.&#34; Lin Boqiang pointed out that the development of energy storage technology is a core strategy of &#34;short-term expensive, long-term cheap.&#34; Once energy storage technology significantly reduces costs through economies of scale, it will not only perfectly solve the volatility pain points of new energy grid connection but also reshape China's underlying energy structure.
&#34;I estimate that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's energy storage industry will definitely usher in explosive growth.&#34; Lin Boqiang concluded his interview with this confident prediction.
Daily Economic News

In the context of escalating global geopolitical tensions, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, emphasized in an interview that China's energy transition path, including wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and electric vehicles, is the right choice to address oil dependence. He pointed out that China's oil reserves are sufficient, giving it strong immunity against short-term oil price fluctuations. Looking ahead, with breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology and the rapid development of the energy storage industry, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 80% to 90%

腾讯新闻 - 财经

Exclusive interview with Lin Boqiang, Director of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University: Refusing to be "choked" by oil! What are the "trump cards" for China's energy transition?