Why did Trump’s airstrike on Hark Island only target military facilities and deliberately avoid oil facilities?

The United States launched precise strikes on Iran's Khark Island but deliberately avoided targeting this oil hub, which accounts for 90% of Iran's oil exports. What is behind this choice? According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 14th, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that during the enemy airstrike on Khark Island, more than 15 explosions occurred on the island. The enemy attempted to destroy the island's defensive works, military bases, and helicopter hangars, but the oil facilities were not damaged. On the evening of the 13th, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the U.S. military had heavily bombed the Iranian oil export hub Khark Island but chose not to destroy the island's oil infrastructure. "If Iran or any other country interferes in any way with the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision." This statement was interpreted by the market as a deliberate "warning shot." Due to rising geopolitical risks, international oil prices broke $100 per barrel on Monday, with Brent crude reported at $104. According to CNBC on Monday, the reason the U.S. deliberately avoided the oil lifeline is that the integrity of the oil facilities remains a card that the U.S. has yet to play. Vandana Hari, founder of energy consulting firm Vanda Insights, stated that the purpose of targeting military facilities is to send a warning signal to Tehran—if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, the oil infrastructure on Khark Island will become the next target. 90% of Exports Depend on One Island, Cost of Attack Too High Khark Island is a key hub for Iran's crude oil exports, and its strategic value means that any attack on the island's oil facilities would trigger uncontrollable chain reactions. This coral island, located about 25 kilometers off the Iranian coast in the northern Persian Gulf, covers only a few square kilometers but accounts for approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, with a daily loading capacity of up to 7 million barrels. The facilities on the island are highly concentrated, with numerous oil storage tanks in the south, and long embankments extending into deep water for supertankers to dock, with underwater pipelines directly connected to several major oil fields in Iran. Richard Nephew, a former deputy envoy and current researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, stated that without Khark Island, Iran's economy would face severe structural challenges. This would also lead to a significant supply gap in the global crude oil market. According to data from JP Morgan, if the island's export terminal were directly attacked, Iran's daily crude oil exports of about 1.5 million barrels would be immediately interrupted. For this reason, analysts believe that the current U.S. actions aim to avoid triggering uncontrollable turmoil in the international energy market. While trying to pressure Iran, all parties are striving to avoid triggering irreversible market shocks. Analysts believe that maintaining global oil prices within a controllable range also aligns with U.S. economic and political interests. In other words, oil prices can rise, but they cannot go out of control. Iran Has Certain Countermeasures, Risk of Regional Conflict Escalation Must Be Heeded Despite the critical importance of Khark Island, Iran has already diversified its infrastructure to enhance the resilience of its energy export network, but an attack on the island would still trigger severe regional repercussions. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, pointed out that Iran has the Goreh-Jask pipeline, which can bypass Khark Island and the Strait of Hormuz, with a daily delivery capacity of about 1.5 million barrels. Josh Young, chief investment officer of Bison Interests, stated that while Iran has other ports, it is not impossible for the U.S. to exert similar pressure on other export facilities if it controls or destroys Khark Island. However, analysts warn that an actual strike on the oil facilities at Khark Island would represent a significant escalation. Edward Fishman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Tehran has corresponding countermeasures, and once core facilities are attacked, it may take reciprocal actions, potentially affecting other critical energy infrastructure in the region and pushing the intensity of the conflict to a new level. The energy supply chain is being permanently repriced Even if the oil facilities at Khark Island are currently unaffected, this conflict has already reshaped the risk pricing logic of the global energy market at a structural level. Jeff Currie, chief strategist for energy pathways at Carlyle Group and former head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, noted in a research report that the damaged infrastructure at Khark Island cannot be repaired under fire, and that "war risk insurance premiums will remain high for a long time after the last missile is fired." He further warned that behaviors such as stockpiling, renegotiating contracts, and competing for alternative suppliers will permanently reprice the entire supply chain. Currie believes that the world is moving towards a new energy paradigm—security risks will be embedded in commodity prices. "Every commodity that must pass through a chokepoint will carry a security premium for the long term." This means that for the oil market, the threat of an attack on Khark Island is almost as significant as the actual attack itself. An executive in the energy industry told the media that what is truly concerning is that this trend of making core energy hubs the focal point of geopolitical gamesmanship could pose a severe challenge to the long-term stability of the global energy system. "Once the line of not attacking civilian energy facilities is crossed, all restrictions may be lifted."