The adjustment in the U.S. stock market has not yet bottomed out, and mechanical selling pressure continues to accumulate. Goldman Sachs' derivatives and trading team recently assessed that although the internal positioning of the market has undergone significant resetting, the process of deleveraging in systematic strategies has not yet ended. Coupled with the ongoing deterioration of the macroeconomic backdrop, the market is in a state of &#34;more balanced but still fragile.&#34;
According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, CTA and trend-following strategies have sold approximately $50 billion in global stocks over the past week, but the selling pressure is far from being fully released—there is still about $69 billion to $70 billion in selling pressure to be released in the coming week, and about $98 billion to $100 billion in the coming month, which will put significant pressure on the U.S. stock market.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' Global Financial Conditions Index (GS Global FCI) has tightened by over 50 basis points in the past two weeks, marking the strongest tightening since August 2023. Several previously theoretical downside risks are accelerating towards realization.
Lee Coppersmith, Managing Director of Goldman Sachs' sales and trading team, pointed out that the surge in oil prices, disappointing non-farm payroll data, a roughly 5% drop in the stock market, and localized pressure signals in the private credit market—each of these shocks alone may not be enough to end the current cycle, but their cumulative effect is pushing the market into a more fragile operating range.
Brian Garrett, Goldman Sachs' chief derivatives trader, also warned that in a negative gamma-dominated environment, the market faces a tail scenario of &#34;spot declines and soaring volatility,&#34; and the margin of safety cannot be overestimated.
<h2>CTA Selling Pressure Remains, Systematic Deleveraging is Ongoing</h2>
Over the past month, systematic strategies have collectively sold approximately $80 billion in global stocks, with CTA and trend-following funds being the main sellers in the past week.
Goldman Sachs estimates that in just the past week, the net selling scale of CTAs reached about $50 billion, but according to their model estimates, subsequent selling pressure remains considerable: about $69 billion to $70 billion in the coming week, and about $98 billion to $100 billion in the coming month. The U.S. stock market, due to the negative trend signals, will bear the brunt of this selling pressure.
At the same time, non-dealer-held U.S. stock futures positions fell by about $29 billion last week, cumulatively dropping from about $300 billion at the beginning of the year to about $240 billion. Overall, investors still maintain a long position, but the rapid pace of deleveraging indicates that a significant amount of proactive risk reduction has already occurred.
Short positions in U.S.-listed ETFs rose by another 12.4% last week, marking the third-largest weekly increase recorded by Goldman Sachs since 2016, second only to the period of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025 and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Measured by the total market value of Prime accounts, macro product short exposure has risen to its highest level since September 2022, sitting at the 97th percentile of the past five years.
<h2>Quantifiable Downside Scenarios Amidst Macro Shocks</h2>
Coppersmith pointed out that the most significant market development in the past two weeks is not the geopolitical events themselves, but the rapid tightening of global financial conditions. Goldman Sachs' GS Global FCI has risen by over 50 basis points in two weeks, marking the strongest tightening since August 2023, a rare magnitude during non-crisis periods
Goldman Sachs' research team continues to emphasize that the distribution of stock outcomes has increasingly skewed downward. High valuations, rising geopolitical risks, and tightening financial conditions have collectively increased the probability of significant pullbacks. If the market begins to price in a substantial deterioration in economic prospects, the S&amp;P 500 could further decline by about 5% to around 6,300 points, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio compression to about 19 times.
The historical references of oil price shocks are also worth noting. Looking back at significant oil supply shocks in 1974, 1980, 1990, and 2022, the median decline of the S&amp;P 500 during periods of soaring oil prices was about 12%, with a median maximum drawdown of about 23%.
Goldman Sachs also points out that the current energy economic sensitivity in the U.S. is lower than in the historical periods mentioned above, and domestic energy production has significantly increased, reducing structural vulnerabilities.
<h2>Options Expiration and OPEX as Key Time Nodes</h2>
This week, the market faces multiple technical events related to options. According to SpotGamma analysis, this Friday (March 20), the triple expiration day (Triple Witching OPEX) will have a nominal delta exposure of about $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 30% of the total market exposure. How traders reposition after expiration will have a significant impact on market direction.
Another key structural factor is the JPM Collar position. This quarter, the collar strategy consists of 35,000 SPX contracts, specifically a put spread of 5470/6475 combined with covered calls at a strike price of 7155, which will expire on March 31.
SpotGamma expects that the re-hedging operations by traders after the JPM Collar expiration will have a noticeable market impact, making March 31 a key date to watch for options-driven abnormal volatility.
Meanwhile, the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (March 18) also serves as an independent market catalyst. Garrett summarizes that in the context of negative gamma dominance, high skewness, and the approach of multiple expiration events, the previously narrow market pattern is no longer in place, making this week one of the most technically complex periods in recent months.
<h2>Strategy Adjustment: Defensive Shift, Betting on Stagflation Portfolio</h2>
At the sector rotation level, Goldman Sachs observes that fund flows and hedge fund positions are concentrating on historically dominant sectors during oil price shocks and stagflation environments.
Energy and healthcare are favored, while Goldman Sachs' hedge fund VIP basket has recently declined by about 6%, with U.S. hedge funds averaging a return of about -3% year-to-date.
Based on the above judgments, Goldman Sachs' sales trading team is focusing on promoting its newly adjusted stagflation hedge portfolio (GSPUSTAG Index):
<blockquote>
The long basket (GSXUSTGL) consists of commodity stocks and defensive compound growth stocks that have historically performed well in stagflation environments;
The short basket (GSXUSTGS) includes low-quality discretionary consumer stocks, semiconductors and hardware, consumer finance and regional banks, high oil price-sensitive cyclical stocks, and overvalued technology stocks
</blockquote>
<h2>Conclusion: Repricing is halfway through, macro trends determine the future market</h2>
Goldman Sachs team's comprehensive judgment is that the current round of positioning reset has progressed to a considerable extent— overall leverage has decreased, macro shorts have surged, systemic longs have been reduced, futures positions have contracted, and volatility buying has re-emerged, with multiple adjustments occurring simultaneously.
However, whether the macro shocks that triggered this round of reset have stabilized remains a key unknown.
If oil prices stabilize and credit market pressures remain controllable, recent de-risking operations may create space for the market to build a bottom. However, if high oil prices continue to permeate inflation, credit, and growth expectations, the current discussed downward scenario will gradually shift from tail risks to the baseline scenario.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk

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Goldman Sachs warns that the adjustment in the U.S. stock market is not yet over, with approximately $98 billion to $100 billion in selling pressure expected in the coming month. Although market positioning has been reset, the process of systemic deleveraging continues, and the deteriorating macro environment has left the market in a fragile state. Goldman Sachs points out that the combination of rising oil prices, poor employment data, and declining stock prices may lead to increased market volatility

- The U.S. stock market has not yet hit its bottom, with mechanical selling pressure continuing to accumulate.  
- Goldman Sachs reports that systematic strategies have sold approximately $80 billion in global stocks over the past month, with a further $69 billion to $70 billion expected in the next week.  
- The tightening of global financial conditions coupled with significant oil price impacts may lead to further market vulnerabilities and declines.

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Goldman Sachs traders warn: The market adjustment is not at its endpoint, and CTA strategies still have nearly $100 billion in selling pressure to be released in the coming month