Global oil prices are experiencing a rare dual-track split. Brent and WTI are still hovering around $100, while the spot prices for Dubai and Oman crude have soared to $155 per barrel.
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According to news from the trading desk, on March 17, a report from Natasha Kaneva's team at JP Morgan's commodities division pointed out that the relative stability of Brent and WTI does not indicate an abundance of global supply, but rather a &#34;false impression&#34; created by regional inventory buffers, deviations in benchmark pricing structures, and policy interventions.
JP Morgan warned that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, this price divergence is unlikely to persist. As inventories in the Atlantic Basin gradually deplete, Brent and WTI will ultimately be forced to reprice upwards, aligning with Middle Eastern spot prices.
<h2>Atlantic inventories mask Middle Eastern shortages</h2>
JP Morgan emphasized that the stability of Brent and WTI prices is primarily due to the fact that they belong to the &#34;Atlantic Basin benchmark.&#34; This means their pricing is more determined by local supply and demand in Europe and the U.S., rather than the global situation as a whole.
The current supply disruption is centered in the Strait of Hormuz, located in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Europe have ample commercial crude oil inventories as of early 2026, and market expectations have even partially realized the release of strategic petroleum reserves, which have temporarily alleviated tensions along the Atlantic coast.
Therefore, these two benchmarks reflect a regional, buffered loosening rather than a global shortage.
In contrast, Dubai and Oman crude, as Middle Eastern benchmarks, are directly exposed to the shocks of export disruptions and can more effectively capture marginal scarcity. Both spot prices have currently reached $155 per barrel.
This price directly reflects the extreme difficulties of exporting crude oil from the Gulf region. Brent and WTI are unable to fully capture the marginal supply shortages occurring in the Middle East.
<h2>Asia bears the brunt, time lag provides a buffer for Europe and the U.S.</h2>
The geopolitical trade pattern further amplifies this divergence. The Strait of Hormuz is the most important oil transport chokepoint in the world, with the vast majority of transit crude flowing to Asian markets.
Data from JP Morgan shows that India, Japan, and South Korea are the main buyers of Gulf crude, with Asia importing about 11.2 million barrels per day from the Strait and approximately 1.4 million barrels per day of refined products.
This means that the immediate physical shortages and price surges from this supply disruption are most concentrated in the Asian market. JP Morgan noted that early signs of demand destruction have emerged in Asia, as refined oil prices surge and spot procurement costs remain high, leading some demand to exit the market.
The time logic of transportation further widens the price gap. The typical shipping route from the Gulf region to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while shipping to Europe via the Suez Canal takes about 25 to 30 days. If circumventing the Cape of Good Hope, it can take as long as 35 to 45 days
This means that Asia will bear the impact of the Gulf crude oil supply disruption earlier and more severely, while the Atlantic basin markets represented by Brent and WTI will have a longer buffer time due to existing inventory backlogs and slow supply adjustments.
<h2>The buffer will eventually run out, and Brent and WTI face upward adjustment pressure</h2>
JP Morgan clearly indicates that the current apparent stability of Brent and WTI is temporary.
The three main factors supporting this stability—regional inventory surplus, benchmark pricing structure, and policy intervention—are essentially short-term buffers and do not reflect the true tightness of global supply. Once commercial inventories in the Atlantic basin are rapidly depleted, the global market will be forced to clear under tighter supply conditions.
In JP Morgan's scenario assessment, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Brent and WTI will ultimately be repriced upward, aligning with Middle Eastern spot prices. At that time, the current price difference of over $55/barrel between Brent and Dubai will become the largest risk premium hanging over global oil prices.

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JP Morgan warns that the massive price difference of $55 is due to regional inventory surplus, benchmark pricing structure, and policy interventions, which are essentially short-term buffers and do not reflect the true tightness of global supply. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Brent and WTI will ultimately be repriced upwards, aligning with Middle Eastern spot prices

- Global oil prices are experiencing a rare dual track split, with Brent and WTI hovering around $100, while Dubai and Oman crude spot prices surged to $155 per barrel.  
- JPMorgan's report highlights that the stability of Brent and WTI is an illusion created by regional stock buffers and price structure deviations, warning that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a price adjustment aligning with Middle Eastern spot prices.  
- The current overstock in the Atlantic Basin serves as a temporary buffer, but once inventories deplete, Brent and WTI will face upward pressure to realign with the actual global supply situation.

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"The false oil price" is still hovering around 100 dollars, while "the real oil price" has already reached 155 dollars