Global stock markets rose for the third consecutive day amid uncertainty, as investors attempted to see through the recent geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, oil prices fell due to a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and Iraq opening alternative export channels, temporarily alleviating the market's worst expectations regarding energy supply.
On the 18th, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) broke through 5900 points, rising more than 4.6% during the day. The South Korean financial regulator stated that it would expand the 100 trillion won market stabilization plan if necessary. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.3%, marking the longest consecutive increase in over a month. Stocks in the memory chip sector, such as Samsung Electronics, which are considered less affected by the Middle East conflict, performed well. U.S. and European stock index futures rose in tandem, indicating that the upward trend may extend to more markets.
In terms of oil prices, Brent crude fell about 2.3%, trading around $101 per barrel. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.56 million barrels for the week ending March 13, far exceeding the Reuters survey expectation of 380,000 barrels. Meanwhile, Iraq signed an agreement to resume crude oil exports via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, further pressuring oil prices.
The decline in oil prices supported a rise in U.S. Treasury bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 2 basis points to 4.18%. Gold dropped 0.4% to below $5000 per ounce. Market focus will shift later on Wednesday to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with particular attention on the wording of Powell's press conference.
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) broke through 5900 points, rising more than 4.6% during the day.</li>
<li>S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.7%.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.06% on Wednesday.</li>
<li>The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 158.74 USD.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasury bonds rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 2 basis points to 4.18%.</li>
<li>Brent crude fell about 2.3%, trading around $101 per barrel. WTI crude fell 3.37% to $92.</li>
<li>Gold dropped 0.4% to below $5000 per ounce.</li>
<li>Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $74,025.23.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<h2>Inventory Surprises and Alternative Exports Pressure Oil Prices</h2>
Oil prices have recently retreated due to multiple factors. According to Reuters, API data showed that the weekly increase in U.S. crude oil inventories significantly exceeded expectations, dampening market sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. military used bunker buster bombs to destroy Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz, which oil market analyst Andy Lipow stated, &#34;brought some optimism to the market, making it feel like the days of tankers safely returning to that waterway are approaching.&#34;
The alternative export agreement signed between Iraq and Turkey provides a new route for global oil supply to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, further alleviating some supply disruption risks.
However, the risk of supply disruptions has not dissipated. Recent attacks on UAE energy infrastructure have occurred, including a drone attack on the world's largest ultra-sour gas facility, a fire in the Fujairah oil industrial zone, and damage to a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. The Shah gas field remains offline due to a fire caused by a drone attack; this field is jointly operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Western Oil Company, with a daily production capacity of over 1.28 billion standard cubic feet
Citigroup warns that the oil market still faces downward pressure in the short term, while upward risks cannot be ignored. The bank's baseline scenario shows that in the next four to six weeks, the flow through the Strait of Hormuz could be interrupted, potentially reaching 11 to 16 million barrels per day, at which point Brent crude oil is expected to rise to $110 to $120 per barrel.
Brent crude oil fell about 2.3%, trading around $101 per barrel. WTI crude oil dropped 3.37% to $92.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5b850daa-bf59-41bc-8109-82095263a6b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5b850daa-bf59-41bc-8109-82095263a6b9.png"/>
<h2>Federal Reserve Decision Becomes Market's Next Focus</h2>
As geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations continue to intertwine, market attention is shifting to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged this time, the wording of Powell's press conference will be a key signal—investors are eager to understand how the Fed will respond once the war creates conflicting pressures on the labor market and inflation targets.
Bond traders have gradually reduced their previously aggressive positions betting on no rate cuts this year, but expectations for the rate cut path remain highly divided. IG Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a report:
<blockquote>
&#34;If the conflict continues to push energy prices higher and thus elevate inflation, it will strengthen expectations for a stronger dollar and further compress the Fed's room for easing.&#34;
</blockquote>
The dollar index fell slightly by 0.06% on Wednesday. Bloomberg macro strategist Brendan Fagan pointed out that the temporary stabilization of oil prices provides some support for government bonds, but until price pressures have not eased sustainably, market direction will still be driven more by geopolitical factors rather than monetary policy itself.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9bf397cb-efa0-43fa-a8be-480e626c44f5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9bf397cb-efa0-43fa-a8be-480e626c44f5.png"/>
<h2>Analysts: Volatility Difficult to Dissipate Before Energy Situation Stabilizes</h2>
Although overall market sentiment has improved, strategists generally warn that high volatility is unlikely to dissipate before the energy market truly stabilizes. Senior strategist Louis Navellier stated that U.S. stocks can still rise against the backdrop of rising oil prices, mainly reflecting the market's robust expectations for corporate earnings and economic growth, but he emphasized, &#34;Investors should expect that market volatility will persist until the energy situation stabilizes.&#34;
Invesco strategist David Chao reminded that historical data shows that oil prices and the stock market take &#34;an average of about four to five months&#34; to recover from supply-side shocks. This means that even if the current situation has eased somewhat, it will still take time for the market to fully digest this shock.
More news will be updated continuously

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has surpassed 5,900 points, rising over 4.6% during the day. South Korea's financial regulatory agency stated that it will expand the KRW 100 trillion market stabilization plan if necessary. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.3%, marking the longest consecutive increase in over a month. Brent crude oil fell about 2.3%, trading around USD 101 per barrel. Gold dropped 0.4% to below USD 5,000 per ounce. Market focus will shift later on Wednesday to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with particular attention on the wording of Powell's press conference

- Global stock markets rose for the third consecutive day as investors navigated geopolitical tensions, with South Korea's KOSPI surging over 4.6%.  
- Oil prices declined due to higher-than-expected U.S. crude inventories and Iraq's alternative export routes, providing temporary relief from supply concerns.  
- The market's focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision amidst ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.

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Global stock markets rise for three consecutive days, South Korean stocks break through 5900 points, oil prices decline, and the market awaits the Federal Reserve's decision