"Forecast" Securities expect POP MART's net profit to surge over 3 times last year, focusing on operational strategies and shareholder return guidance
POP MART (09992.HK) will announce its 2025 results next Wednesday (25th), benefiting from the popularity of last year's fourth quarter new products such as Starry People Delicious Moments, and a rich variety of Halloween and Christmas themed products. The company indicated last month that global sales of all IP and all product categories exceeded 400 million units last year (THE MONSTERS global sales exceeded 100 million units). According to a comprehensive forecast from 15 brokerages, POP MART's net profit for 2025 is expected to be between RMB 10.81 billion and RMB 14.09 billion, a significant increase of 2.46 times to 3.51 times compared to RMB 3.125 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 13.023 billion, an annual increase of 3.17 times.
According to the forecasts from 15 brokerages, POP MART's revenue is expected to be between RMB 32.828 billion and RMB 40.235 billion in 2025, a substantial increase of 1.52 times to 2.09 times compared to RMB 13.038 billion in 2024, with a median of RMB 38.02 billion, an annual increase of 1.9 times.
Investors will focus on POP MART's management's latest operational strategies and guidance, including the expansion of overseas markets, the company's IP diversification, product innovation, and monetization capabilities in various fields. Whether its iconic IP products, such as SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY, will continue to become new growth drivers and tools for creating evergreen IP is a key point of interest. The company has actively engaged in co-branding collaborations in recent years, including with celebrities, well-known brands, artists, IPs, and collaborations with leading Netflix series. The gradual layout of diverse business formats such as animated content, theme parks, accessories, and desserts is also attracting market attention regarding the company's shareholder return guidance.
【Benefiting from soaring revenue, focusing on platform capabilities】
JP Morgan expects POP MART's revenue in 2025 to reach RMB 40.235 billion, an annual increase of 208.6%. It estimates that revenue from mainland operations will be RMB 21.1 billion, an annual increase of 1.6 times, and revenue from overseas operations will be RMB 19.135 billion, an annual increase of nearly 2.8 times. It anticipates that net profit for 2025 will be RMB 14.092 billion, an annual increase of 351%, with an estimated net profit margin of 35% (compared to 24% in 2024).
Morgan Stanley reported last month that POP MART's share buyback could serve as a catalyst. Morgan Stanley believes that POP MART will see more surprises in product design this year, and that the group's IP products Labubu and Moynat are collaborating, with reports that a Labubu movie will be produced by Sony Pictures. Additionally, the inclusion of the CEO of LVMH's China region on the company's board shows that POP MART's cultural influence is increasingly recognized by top industry leaders. It believes the company has secured more effective marketing resources for its upcoming new products, which is crucial for enhancing the popularity of its IP. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of RMB 325 for POP MART, based on a forecasted 26 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026; it rates the stock as "Overweight," believing that as its position in mainland China and Asia solidifies, it will become the cornerstone of the group's growth in 2026, with sustained sales momentum in overseas markets, good product line expansion, and new IP-centered initiatives potentially leading to a valuation reassessment However, more investment is needed in the North American market to unleash long-term potential.
HSBC Global Research published a report last month, projecting that by 2026, the growth of POP MART will transition from an acceleration driven by Labubu to a more normalized retail and product-driven model. The expansion of ARPU for repeat members (those who purchase more than twice a year) contributes nearly half, reflecting a "buying frenzy" mentality under the supply constraints during Labubu's global outbreak period. As supply expands and product availability improves, this "urgent buying" dynamic will fade, and the ARPU for repeat purchasing members will return to normal. Although POP MART can partially offset this through ongoing global retail expansion, new member acquisition, and the launch of diverse IP new products, overall growth will slow down. The bank is confident in POP MART's mature IP incubation and globalization capabilities, expecting to create blockbuster IPs beyond Labubu in the future.
HSBC Global Research estimates that POP MART's revenue will reach RMB 38.588 billion in 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, with revenue from THE MONSTERS expected to be RMB 18.022 billion and estimated revenue from other IPs at RMB 20.566 billion. The bank estimates that POP MART's mainland member count reached 71 million last year (up 54% year-on-year), with an ARPU of RMB 241 per member (up 50% year-on-year), compared to RMB 160 in the second half of 2024, while the ARPU for repeat purchasing members is expected to be RMB 810, up 84% year-on-year.
-----------------------------------------------------
According to a comprehensive analysis of 15 brokerage firms, POP MART's net profit in 2025 is expected to range from RMB 10.81 billion to RMB 14.092 billion, a significant increase of 2.46 to 3.51 times compared to RMB 3.125 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 13.023 billion, up 3.17 times year-on-year.
Brokerage│2025 Net Profit Forecast (RMB)│Year-on-Year Change
JP Morgan│RMB 14.092 billion│+351%
Jefferies│RMB 13.745 billion│+339.8%
Goldman Sachs│RMB 13.642 billion│+336.5%
Citigroup│RMB 13.549 billion│+333.6%
CICC│RMB 13.122 billion│+320%
BOCI│RMB 13.107 billion │+319.4%
HSBC Global Research│RMB 13.053 billion│+318%
Bank of America Securities│RMB 13.023 billion│+316.7%
CMB International│RMB 12.897 billion│+312.7%
Morgan Stanley│RMB 12.618 billion│+303.8%
Citi│RMB 11.650 billion│+272.8%
Guotai Junan Securities│RMB 11.617 billion│+271.7%
Nomura│RMB 11.529 billion│+268.9% UBS │ CNY 11.035 billion │ +253.1%
Huatai Securities │ CNY 10.810 billion │ +246%
Based on POP MART's 2024 net profit of CNY 3.125 billion
-----------------------------------------------------
According to the forecasts of 15 brokerages, POP MART's 2025 revenue is expected to range from CNY 32.828 billion to CNY 40.235 billion, a significant increase of 152% to 209% compared to CNY 13.038 billion in 2024, with a median of CNY 38.02 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 192%.
Brokerage │ 2025 Revenue Forecast (CNY) │ Year-on-Year Change
JP Morgan │ CNY 40.235 billion │ +208.6%
BOC International │ CNY 39.802 billion │ +205.3%
Friedrich │ CNY 39.537 billion │ +203.2%
Goldman Sachs │ CNY 39.104 billion │ +200%
CMB International │ CNY 38.901 billion │ +198.4%
Citigroup │ CNY 38.846 billion │ +197.9%
HSBC Global Research │ CNY 38.588 billion │ +196%
CICC │ CNY 38.020 billion │ +191.6%
Morgan Stanley │ CNY 37.890 billion │ +190.6%
Bank of America Securities │ CNY 37.082 billion │ +184.4%
Citi │ CNY 35.460 billion │ +172%
Guotai Junan Securities │ CNY 35.289 billion │ +170.7%
Nomura │ CNY 33.843 billion │ +159.6%
Huatai Securities │ CNY 33.100 billion │ +153.9%
UBS │ CNY 32.828 billion │ +151.8%
Based on POP MART's 2024 revenue of CNY 13.038 billion
