Macquarie expects ZTO Express to benefit from anti-involution measures that promote profitability improvement, raising the target price to $30.4

Macquarie's research report indicates that ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057.HK) will achieve performance at the high end of forecasts in the fourth quarter of 2025. Under the anti-involution policy and the growth of reverse logistics volume, the average revenue per package (ASP) maintains positive growth. The firm believes that ZTO will benefit from anti-involution measures, driving growth in 2026 to outpace the industry and improve profitability.

Looking ahead, Macquarie states that as the industry transitions to high-quality growth under the anti-involution policy entering 2026, ZTO, with its value positioning, will hold the best advantage and continue to outperform the market, further expanding its market share. It is expected that the average revenue per package will further increase by 6 cents RMB, while sales volume will grow by 13% year-on-year, translating to an adjusted net profit increase of 17% year-on-year to 11 billion RMB.

Macquarie has raised its net profit forecasts for ZTO for the next two years by 8% and 12%, respectively, to reflect updated business volume growth and profitability outlook. The target price for ZTO (ZTO.US) in the U.S. stock market has been raised from $26.6 to $30.4, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for 2026; the rating is "Outperform."