The Iran war has entered its third week, and the global crude oil market is experiencing a rare &#34;decoupling&#34; between futures and spot prices: Brent crude benchmark futures have surged over 50% to around $112 per barrel, but the real cost in the spot market is far higher—prices for refined products like jet fuel have already surpassed $200 per barrel.
Jeff Currie, Chief Strategist for Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group, stated:
<blockquote>
&#34;The futures market has completely decoupled from the physical market, and we are facing a massive supply shock.&#34;
</blockquote>
The reason futures have failed to reflect the full extent of the spot price increase is largely due to a series of policy tools that the U.S. has intensively employed to suppress oil prices.
However, these tools are quickly running out.
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<h2>Spot Market: The Impact on Consumers Far Exceeds What Futures Indicate</h2>
The Strait of Hormuz is nearly completely closed, compounded by attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities, leading to a severe contraction in physical crude oil supply. Asian refineries are forced to purchase cargoes from thousands of miles away at high premiums.
The transmission chain is becoming increasingly evident: jet fuel has surpassed $200 per barrel, and major European airlines have stated that additional costs will be passed on to passengers; trucking companies are beginning to feel the pressure; and some regions have already cut back on marine fuel purchases.
The IEA has characterized this event as the largest oil supply disruption in history.
Goldman Sachs estimates that approximately 17 million barrels per day of Gulf crude flow is affected by the conflict. The actual inflationary impact far exceeds what futures prices reflect, putting pressure on central banks and the Trump administration facing midterm elections in November.
<h2>U.S. &#34;Oil Price Stabilization&#34; Toolbox: Nearly Depleted</h2>
In the past two weeks, Brent crude has approached $120 twice—a level not seen since 2022—forcing Washington to take intensive measures:
Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)—a large-scale release has already been announced. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Fox Business on Thursday that another release is being considered, although its logistical feasibility has been questioned.
Lifting sanctions on Russian offshore oil—attempting to increase alternative supply sources.
Considering easing sanctions on Iranian oil—Yellen's subsequent statement shocked already fatigued traders: considering lifting oil sanctions while engaged in conflict with Tehran left global traders, who have long treaded carefully around Iranian transactions, in disbelief.
Suspected intervention in the futures market—there is widespread speculation that the U.S. is directly intervening in futures trading, which Yellen denied. Meanwhile, extreme volatility has raised holding costs, objectively limiting the size of traders' positions and exerting some pressure on futures—but the effect is limited compared to the impact of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
<h2>Price Shock May Further Intensify</h2>
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup warned this week that if the conflict continues, futures prices could surpass the historical record of $147.50 per barrel set in 2008 in the coming weeks.
It is worth noting that significant long-term deviations between futures and spot prices are historically uncommon, which means that the price gap between the two will eventually converge—though the direction may not necessarily be a retreat in spot prices

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup warned this week that if the conflict continues, futures prices could surpass the historical record of $147.50 per barrel set in 2008 in the coming weeks. The reason futures have not fully reflected the increase in spot prices is largely due to a series of policy tools that the United States has intensively employed to suppress oil prices. However, these tools are rapidly depleting

- The ongoing war in Iran has led to a significant disconnection between the futures and spot oil markets, with Brent crude futures surging over 50% to approximately $112 per barrel, while actual costs in the spot market, like jet fuel, surpass $200 per barrel.  
- Jeff Currie, Chief Strategist at the Carlyle Group, noted that the futures market is completely detached from the physical market, primarily due to U.S. policies aimed at suppressing oil prices, which are rapidly depleting.  
- With supply disruptions affecting approximately 17 million barrels per day and prices possibly rising further, firms like Goldman Sachs warn that futures could exceed the 2008 record of $147.50 per barrel if the conflict continues.

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The Iran war has lasted three weeks, and the U.S. "oil price stabilization" card is "almost played out," with the "futures and spot price spread" of crude oil widening