<p>The last batch of LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf to Asian and European importing countries is about to dock, and the cliff effect of supply disruption is becoming apparent, with natural gas prices doubling. Countries heavily reliant on imports, such as Pakistan, are facing a &#34;supply cut&#34; dilemma.</p>
<p>As Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and launches missile attacks on Qatar's largest liquefied natural gas facility, the global LNG supply pattern is undergoing structural shocks. According to analysis by independent shipbroker Affinity, LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf that were already en route before the outbreak of war will arrive at ports in the next 10 days, after which some importing countries will lose all supplies from the region.</p>
<p>The market has reacted ahead of time. The Asian LNG benchmark price, Platts JKM, has doubled to about $23 per million British thermal units since the outbreak of war, and shipping costs have also surged due to higher charter rates and longer alternative routes. Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi stated this week that 17% of Qatar's LNG production capacity will remain offline for the next three to five years due to the attacks, and &#34;force majeure&#34; may be declared on some long-term contracts.</p>
<p>This situation will force global importing countries to make difficult choices between scrambling for alternative supply sources like the U.S., switching fuels, and implementing demand rationing. Many resource-scarce Asian countries have begun to implement energy-saving measures, with some even adopting a four-day workweek.</p>
<h2>Supply Cliff Approaches, Countdown for Last Shipments</h2>
<p>According to vessel tracking data, there is still a batch of LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf scheduled to arrive in Asia—this region typically consumes about 90% of the LNG exports from this area; another six batches are still en route to Europe. Once this batch of shipments is delivered, supplies from the Persian Gulf will be completely cut off.</p>
<p>Qatar produces about one-fifth of the world's LNG and has been forced to halt exports after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This week, Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant was further attacked by Iranian missiles, and this facility accounts for the vast majority of Qatar's LNG production capacity. Al-Kaabi pointed out that this damage will lead to long-term impairment of the country's LNG production capacity and clearly stated that &#34;force majeure&#34; will be declared on some long-term contracts, with a maximum duration of five years. This means that the structural supply gap in the global LNG market will persist for years rather than months.</p>
<h2>Pakistan Faces Deepest Crisis, Risk of Supply Cut by Month-End</h2>
<p>Among all the affected countries, Pakistan is in the most vulnerable position. Last year, about 99% of the country's LNG imports came from Qatar, and the last batch of shipments from Ras Laffan arrived on the second and third days after the outbreak of war.</p>
<p>Currently, the throughput of Pakistan's two LNG import terminals has dropped to one-sixth of normal levels, and according to two informed sources, both terminals will completely stop distributing natural gas by the end of this month. One terminal, operated by Pakistan GasPort, has its chairman and CEO Iqbal Ahmed stating that the terminal will exhaust its LNG inventory in the coming days. &#34;After that, we will be completely cut off,&#34; he said, &#34;We don't know when the next batch of shipments will arrive.&#34;
Iqbal Ahmed expects that if the conflict continues, Pakistan will heavily turn to more expensive and more polluting fuel oil for power generation. &#34;I foresee a very tough year ahead, followed by two to three years of difficult times,&#34; he said. Bangladesh is in a similar situation, but slightly better off as some LNG comes from regions outside the Persian Gulf, and the local government has initiated gas rationing measures, including closing universities.</p>
<p>Japan, although the world's second-largest LNG importer, has a supply through the Strait of Hormuz that accounts for only about 6%, which is relatively low. A Japanese LNG trader stated, &#34;Our plan is to procure from the JKM spot market to fill the gap.&#34; However, another trader revealed that Japanese buyers are generally taking a wait-and-see approach and plan to return to coal, &#34;only a few buyers are considering spot purchases.&#34; Japan also plans to expand the use of coal and nuclear power, having partially restarted the world's largest nuclear power plant located in Niigata Prefecture earlier this year.</p>
<h2>Supply Tightness May Last for Years, Market Structure Under Pressure</h2>
<p>Before more ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, global LNG market supply will remain tight. Even if the strait reopens, due to damage to the Ras Laffan facility, about 17% of Qatar's LNG production capacity will still be unable to recover within three to five years, keeping market supply below pre-war levels for a long time.</p>
<p>The force majeure clause announced by Qatar's Energy Minister Al-Kaabi means that buyers holding long-term contracts with Qatar globally will have to rely on the spot market for a long time to fill the gap, while Asian JKM spot prices have doubled compared to pre-war levels, further increasing the energy cost pressure on importing countries. For financially vulnerable developing countries, the contradiction between high spot prices and limited foreign exchange reserves will be a core challenge for energy security in the coming years</p>

TPYP

<p>The last batch of LNG cargoes from the Persian Gulf will arrive at the port within ten days and will immediately cease supply. Asian spot prices have doubled to $23, Pakistan will completely run out of gas by the end of the month, and Qatar's 17% production capacity will be difficult to restore within three to five years—this energy crisis is far more than a temporary shock; it is a structural disaster that will last for several years</p>

- The global LNG supply is facing a structural disruption due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Qatar's facilities, leading to a potential complete halt in supplies.  
- Prices have surged, with Asia's LNG benchmark reaching about $23 per million Btu, while Pakistan, heavily reliant on Qatari LNG, is expected to face severe shortages and transit interruptions.  
- This crisis could compel countries to seek alternative energy sources, as Qatar's 17% LNG production capacity may remain offline for several years, straining global energy security and raising costs for developing nations.

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The last LNG tanker from the Persian Gulf is about to arrive at the port, and the global natural gas supply is nearing the edge of a cliff