CITIC International downgraded POP MART to sell due to disappointing performance and doubts about profit visibility

Zhaoyin International published a report stating that it has downgraded the investment rating of POP MART (09992.HK) from "Buy" to "Sell," with the target price significantly reduced from HKD 380 to HKD 127, which corresponds to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times by the end of this year (previously 21 times). The firm indicated that the company's performance in the second half of last year and its guidance for this year both fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the sustainability of the company's growth and profitability visibility.

Due to anticipated sales slowdowns in the U.S. and Thai markets, the firm has lowered its overseas revenue forecasts for POP MART for 2026 and 2027 by 52% and 60%, respectively, and has reduced its gross margin forecasts by 6 and 10 percentage points to reflect the declining proportion of overseas sales. Correspondingly, the net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 32% and 43%