Domestic High Frequency | Divergent Production Trends (Shenwan Hongyuan Macro · Zhao Wei Team)

Report Body High-frequency tracking of production: Divergence in industrial and construction production trends In industrial production, the operation of blast furnaces remains stable, and the apparent consumption of steel continues to recover. In the fifth week after the holiday, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.2% month-on-month and remained at 1.5% year-on-year; the apparent consumption of steel increased by 2.2% month-on-month, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.1%. The social inventory of steel has decreased, down 1.7% month-on-month. The operation of the petrochemical chain has increased, while the consumption chain has decreased. In the fifth week after the holiday, in the petrochemical chain, the operating rate of soda ash decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4%; the operating rate of PTA increased by 3.6% month-on-month, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year to 3%. In the downstream consumption chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to -5.3%; the operating rate of semi-steel tires for automobiles was weak, increasing by 0.1% month-on-month, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.5%. In the construction industry, cement production and demand have shown signs of recovery. In the fifth week after the holiday, the national grinding operating rate increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 2.6 percentage points year-on-year to 14.1%; the cement shipment rate increased by 7.3% month-on-month and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.8%. In terms of inventory, the cement inventory capacity ratio has increased, rising by 0.9% month-on-month and 3 percentage points year-on-year to 7.3%. Additionally, the average price of cement during the week increased by 0.9% month-on-month. Glass production continues to bottom out, and asphalt operations are generally weak. In the fifth week after the holiday, glass production remained flat compared to the previous week, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to -7.5%; apparent glass consumption decreased by 5.7% month-on-month and fell 5.7 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6%. The asphalt operating rate, which reflects infrastructure investment, increased by 0.7% month-on-month but decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -6.4%. High-frequency demand tracking: Real estate transactions continue to improve, and the intensity of foot traffic remains resilient The transaction volume of commercial housing nationwide has rebounded year-on-year. In the fifth week after the holiday, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.8% month-on-month and rebounded to 25.5% year-on-year. Looking at different tier cities, first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities increased by 9.1%, 15.5%, and 20.7% month-on-month, and year-on-year increases were 25.3%, 63%, and 33%, respectively. Freight volume remains resilient overall. In the fourth week after the holiday, railway freight volume related to domestic demand and highway truck traffic fell by 3.2 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Port cargo throughput related to exports fell by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, while container throughput rebounded by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year to 22.1%. The intensity of passenger travel remains high, and the number of executed flights has increased. In the fifth week after the holiday, the national migration scale index remained at 19.8% year-on-year. The number of executed domestic and international flights increased by 0.5% and 1.2% month-on-month, and year-on-year increases were 7.7 and 2.2 percentage points to 10.2% and 7.1%, respectively Movie consumption has rebounded year-on-year, while automobile sales remain weak. In the fourth week after the holiday, the number of moviegoers increased by 17.8 percentage points year-on-year to -62.6%, and box office revenue increased by 17 percentage points year-on-year to -64.8%. In terms of automobile sales, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 10.9% month-on-month, and year-on-year increased by 2.9 percentage points to -23.1%; wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 13.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year wholesale volume decreased by 9.8 percentage points to -33.6%. In terms of exports, shipping prices have rebounded, with significant price increases on Southeast Asia and West Coast US routes. In the fifth week after the holiday, the CCFI composite index increased by 1.6% month-on-month. Among them, the price increases on Southeast Asia and Mediterranean routes were significant, rising by 2.2% and 2.3% month-on-month, respectively. Additionally, the average BDI for the week decreased by 1.2% month-on-month. High-frequency tracking of prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, industrial product prices are differentiated Agricultural product prices are generally weak. In the fifth week after the holiday, prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits have declined, with month-on-month changes of -1.3%, -0.9%, and -0.7% respectively; egg prices have rebounded, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. The price trends of industrial products are differentiated. In the fifth week after the holiday, the South China industrial product price index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. Among them, the energy and chemical price index increased by 1.2%, while the metal price index decreased by 0.6%. Risk Warning Economic transformation faces short-term constraints. Changes in domestic and international situations have resulted in slow recovery of domestic demand and low inflation levels The implementation of policies has not met expectations. Fiscal and monetary policies have been intensified, but the transmission effect has declined. The progress of investment recovery is slower than expected. The repayment of corporate debts is not as anticipated, and investment willingness has somewhat declined