Nomura lowers Meituan's target price to 92 yuan, competitive landscape remains unclear

Nomura published a research report, updating its forecast for Meituan-W (03690.HK). The firm believes that the recovery path remains volatile, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, with the target price lowered from HKD 107 to HKD 92.

The firm expects that the operating loss of the takeaway business will narrow by over 40% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 7.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with a loss per order of RMB 1.3, compared to a loss per order of RMB 1.94 in the last quarter of last year. The firm pointed out that although Chinese authorities have recently hinted at opposing "involution," the actual implementation measures remain to be seen, and it is expected that Alibaba's subsidy budget will continue to affect the competitive landscape and the recovery pace of Meituan's takeaway business in the short term