Event: On March 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released the March PMI index. The Manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, previous value 49%; Non-Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, previous value 49.5%.
<h2>1. Core View: Influenced by the fading of holiday disruptions and accelerated demand recovery, the March PMI rebounded significantly.</h2>
Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI in March rebounded significantly, partly due to a &#34;natural&#34; recovery after the fading of holiday disruptions. PMI is a month-on-month indicator reflecting the marginal change in manufacturing prosperity this month compared to last month. The PMI in January-February was affected by the Lunar New Year holiday and declined, while the March PMI rebounded above 50% due to the resumption of work and production. In terms of magnitude, the March PMI increased by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month to 50.4%, basically in line with the typical month after the Lunar New Year holiday (month-on-month increase of 1.3%). After excluding the supplier delivery index, which is significantly affected by weather, the actual PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 50.3%.
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The second reason is the accelerated recovery of domestic and external demand, which boosted the new orders index, while the production orders index showed weakness due to slower resumption of work. In March, the new orders index rose by 3 percentage points from the previous month to 51.6%, a larger increase than in the typical month after the Lunar New Year holiday (month-on-month increase of 2.1%). Structurally, the domestic demand orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 52%. The new export orders index increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, indicating that exports in March likely remained at a high level of prosperity. High-frequency indicators also confirm this: aligning with the post-Lunar New Year period, the year-on-year growth of foreign trade freight volume at ports in March remained at a high level of 26.6%. In contrast, the production orders index in March increased by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month to 51.4%, a smaller rebound than in the typical month after the Lunar New Year holiday (2.9%), possibly reflecting the impact of slower resumption of work after the holiday. In terms of population flow, the intensity of cross-regional population mobility across society during the resumption of work was 1.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the return-home period.
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From an industry perspective, the PMI rebound in the consumer goods sector was larger than in other sectors, which may also reflect the characteristic of faster demand recovery. According to the four major industry PMIs published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI for the consumer goods sector in March increased by 2 percentage points from the previous month to 50.8%. The PMI for the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw smaller rebounds, increasing by 1.7 and 0.6 percentage points to 51.5% and 52.1% respectively. Decomposing production and demand, the new orders index in both sectors increased by more than 2 percentage points, while the production index showed weakness. Among them, the production index for the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the production index for the high-tech manufacturing sector decreased by 1.7 percentage points.
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Non-Manufacturing PMI: The prosperity of the construction industry in March rebounded less than in the same period last year, possibly reflecting the impact of slower resumption of work after the holiday. The construction industry PMI in March rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 49.3%, a weaker rebound than in the typical month after the Lunar New Year holiday (month-on-month increase of 2.8%), also potentially affected by slower resumption of work after the holiday. Data shows that in the fourth week after the holiday, the resumption rate of construction sites nationwide was 62%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2025. Among them, real estate projects and non-real estate projects decreased by 4.9% and 1.6% to 59% and 63.2% respectively. The labor participation rate for all projects remained flat compared to the same period last year (61.7%), with non-real estate projects decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 62.4%.
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With the fading of the holiday effect, the supporting factors for the PMI have shifted from lifestyle services to production services. In March, the services PMI rebounded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 50.2%. Structurally, business activity indices related to resident travel and consumption, such as retail, accommodation, and catering, were below the critical point after the Lunar New Year. However, PMIs for production services such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television, and satellite transmission services, monetary finance, and insurance were all above 55.0%.
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Outlook: With increased policies to expand domestic demand, the &#34;expectation gap&#34; for domestic demand recovery may be greater than for external demand, but attention should still be paid to the negative impact of soaring oil prices on subsequent manufacturing. With the fading of short-term disruptions such as the Lunar New Year holiday, the manufacturing PMI in March showed some recovery, and the production and operation expectation index further increased. In the first year of the &#34;15th Five-Year Plan,&#34; against the backdrop of frequent &#34;good start&#34; actions by central ministries, the economy achieved a &#34;good start.&#34; Looking ahead, policy deployments since the beginning of the year have focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, and their effectiveness is gradually improving. The &#34;expectation gap&#34; for domestic demand recovery may be greater than for external demand, and within domestic demand, consumption expectations may have a larger gap than other areas. However, amidst the continuous escalation of geopolitical risks recently, soaring oil prices could put pressure on industrial enterprise profits, with a transmission lag of about 3-4 months. In the future, attention should be paid to the negative impact of soaring oil prices on manufacturing.
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<h2>2. Regular Tracking: Manufacturing prosperity rebounds, Non-Manufacturing PMI also rises.</h2>
Manufacturing: The Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with a significant increase in the new orders index month-on-month. In March, the Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month to 50.4%. Among them, the new orders index saw a large increase, rising by 3.0 percentage points month-on-month to 51.6%; the production index rose by 1.8 percentage points month-on-month to 51.4%. Among other sub-items, raw material inventories also increased slightly, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 47.7%; the employment index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%.
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Manufacturing demand and production strengthen, with the purchasing volume index rising. In March, the new export orders and import indices both saw significant increases, rising by 4.1 and 4.2 percentage points month-on-month to 49.1% and 49.8% respectively. With improving demand, companies' willingness to purchase also increased, with the purchasing volume index rising by 2.7 percentage points month-on-month to 50.9%.
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Non-Manufacturing: The Non-Manufacturing PMI rebounded, with improvements in both construction and service sector prosperity. In March, the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 50.1%. Among them, the PMI for the construction and service sectors both rebounded, increasing by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 49.3% and 50.2% respectively.
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In the service sector, the new orders index has slightly declined. In March, among the main sub-items of the service sector, the new orders index fell by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month to 45.3%, and the employment index decreased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month to 46.2%. In contrast, the price index has risen, with the input price index increasing by 1.0 percentage point from the previous month to 52.2%, and the sales price index increasing by 1.0 percentage point to 50.0%.
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In the construction sector, the new orders index has rebounded month-on-month. In March, among the construction sector sub-items, the new orders index increased by 1.3 percentage points to 43.5%. The employment index saw a larger decline, falling by 3.4 percentage points to 39.1%. Additionally, the price indices have also improved significantly, with the input price index rising by 3.6 percentage points to 52.7%, and the sales price index increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 49.3%.
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On March 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released the March PMI index. The Manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%. The reasons for the significant rebound in the March PMI include the fading of holiday disruptions and accelerated demand recovery. The rebound in the Manufacturing PMI was mainly driven by the resumption of work and production, with the new orders index rising to 51.6%. The PMI for the consumer goods sector rebounded more than other sectors, reflecting faster demand recovery

- On March 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released the March PMI figures, showing a manufacturing PMI of 50.4% and a non-manufacturing PMI of 50.1%.  
- The significant rebound in March’s PMI is attributed to the fading impact of the Spring Festival and accelerated demand recovery, with new orders index increasing notably.  
- Despite this recovery, concerns remain regarding the potential negative impact of rising oil prices on manufacturing profitability.

Why Did the March PMI Rebound Significantly?