Polymarket Predicts Low Probability for Trump Mobile Launch by Mid-2026

Polymarket has introduced a new prediction event regarding the potential launch of Trump Mobile phones by the end of April or June. According to Odaily, the probability of a phone release by April 30 is currently 6%, while the likelihood of a launch by June 30 stands at 22%. The market will consider the event successful if Trump Mobile officially releases a phone, including the T1 model or any other, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified dates. The product must be available for public purchase within the timeframe to qualify as released; announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders do not meet the criteria. The primary basis for judgment will be information from Trump Mobile, supplemented by consensus from other reliable reports. In December 2025, Trump Mobile, a subsidiary of the Trump Organization, postponed its plan to deliver its gold-colored smartphone by the end of 2025. On January 24, 2026, technology media outlet The Verge reported that the initial T1 phone had yet to be shipped. Similar to previous brand licensing practices by the Trump Organization, the T1 phone and services are not directly designed, developed, or sold by the Trump Organization but are operated by third-party companies through brand licensing.