The market's concerns about the monetization potential of AI on the consumer side for Chinese internet giants may be a misjudgment.According to the Chase the Wind trading desk, HSBC stated in its latest report released on April 2 that Alibaba and Tencent's AI monetization capabilities are systematically underestimated by the market. The AI monetization potential that these two companies hold in core scenarios such as advertising, e-commerce commissions, and payments has not been fully reflected in their stock prices.Although Alibaba and Tencent have recently announced large-scale AI investment plans and raised their cloud revenue outlook—Alibaba even setting a target of $100 billion in cloud revenue within five years, implying a compound annual growth rate of over 40%—their stock prices have both pulled back after the earnings releases. This is not a signal of market pessimism towards AI prospects, but rather short-term investor concerns about the impact of consumer-facing (to-C) AI investments on increasing operating expense ratios.If Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance can capture 10% to 50% of advertising revenue share from transactional and search platforms, and divide this gain equally among themselves, this opportunity could bring a maximum upside of approximately 8% to 11% to Tencent's and Alibaba's 2027 revenues, respectively. Based on the above judgment, HSBC maintains its buy rating on Alibaba and Tencent, with target prices of $180 and HK$750, respectively, implying an upside potential of approximately 44% and 51% from their current stock prices.<h2>Market Misinterprets AI Investment Signals</h2>The sell-off in Alibaba and Tencent's stock prices stems from short-term concerns about rising operating expenses, rather than skepticism about the long-term returns of AI. The report believes that the market still has confidence in the long-term return on investment of these two companies' capital expenditures and the sustainability of their free cash flow and balance sheets. What truly raises concerns is the rise in operating expense ratios caused by consumer-facing AI investments.The biggest monetization opportunity for consumer-facing AI lies in advertising. The report predicts that the scale of China's online advertising market will reach RMB 1.91 trillion in 2027, with growth rates of 10% and 9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Based on this, it is estimated that transactional and search platforms (excluding Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance) will occupy about 30% of the advertising market share by then.If Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance can capture 10% to 50% of advertising revenue from these platforms, leveraging their larger user base, higher usage frequency, and stronger closed-loop transaction capabilities, and divide this share equally, then Tencent's total revenue upside would be 2.1% to 10.6%, and Alibaba's would be 1.5% to 7.5%.There is potential for further upside if AI can expand overall consumer demand, increase online penetration, or if platforms emulate overseas counterparts by introducing subscription-based models.<h2>Tencent: Ecosystem Moat Is Difficult to Replicate</h2>Tencent's advantage lies in the high stickiness and diverse monetization paths of its WeChat ecosystem.Data shows that WeChat's DAU/MAU ratio reached 82% in February 2026, significantly higher than Doubao's 30% and Qwen's 16%. The average daily usage frequency per user reached 40 times, also significantly higher than Doubao's and Qwen's 4 to 5 times. This high-quality, high-frequency user base forms an unreplicable network effect moat.In terms of monetization paths, Tencent is deeply integrating AI product functionalities similar to OpenClaw into WeChat, covering scenarios such as chat, search, Video Accounts, Official Accounts, Mini Programs, and Mini Stores, building the next generation of intelligent agent AI services. Tencent's monetization upside will come from three directions: First, advertising—improving advertiser ROI through AI-automated ad targeting, bidding, and placement, and increasing conversion rates under equivalent ad load; second, commissions—AI-driven shopping experiences will drive GMV growth in Mini Stores; third, payment fees—the increase in transaction volume of Mini Programs and Mini Stores will directly contribute to payment revenue.On the enterprise side (to-B), Tencent Cloud achieved an adjusted operating profit of RMB 5 billion in 2025, with revenue growth already showing signs of recovery. Tencent Cloud's upside will come from PaaS and SaaS layers, including proprietary AI agent products WorkBuddy and Qclaw, as well as AI empowerment of collaboration tools such as WeCom and Tencent Meeting.<h2>Alibaba: Dual-Driven by To-B and To-C</h2>Alibaba has clear AI monetization paths on both the enterprise and consumer sides.On the enterprise side, Alibaba Cloud's external cloud revenue achieved a year-on-year growth of 35% in the December 2025 quarter, and AI-related revenue has maintained triple-digit growth for 10 consecutive quarters. Alibaba ranks first in China's LLM token market share, accounting for 32% in the second half of 2025, with a six-fold increase in platform token consumption over the past three months. Its self-developed chip division, T-Head, had shipped a cumulative total of 470,000 AI chips by February 2026, with annual revenue exceeding RMB 10 billion. Over 60% of T-Head chips serve external customers, covering over 400 enterprise clients in sectors such as internet, financial services, and autonomous driving.On the consumer side, Alibaba's Qwen to-C monthly active users reached 300 million in February 2026, and it has been integrated into multiple platforms including Taobao, Tmall, Alipay, Fliggy, and Amap. As of the end of February 2026, 140 million users have completed their first AI-driven shopping experience through the intelligent agent functionality of Qwen applications, covering scenarios such as food delivery, fresh produce, ticketing, and travel bookings. With further increases in user scale, usage frequency, and stickiness, this will lay the foundation for monetization of commission and advertising revenue in transaction-related vertical domains.<h2>Platform Companies Superior to Pure Model Companies</h2>The report clearly expresses a preference for platform-based internet companies, considering them to have structural advantages over pure model companies.In China's foundation model ecosystem, participants are divided into four tiers: chips, infrastructure, models, and applications. Alibaba is the only company covering all four tiers, and ByteDance is accelerating its self-developed chip deployment. In contrast, pure model companies like Zhipu and MiniMax rely on cloud service providers (CSPs) for computing power. If CSPs prioritize their computing power for internal use or raise prices, their revenue and costs will both face risks.HSBC has assigned a hold rating to both Zhipu and MiniMax, with target prices of HK$920 and HK$1000, respectively. Since their IPOs, their year-to-date gains have been 542% and 687%, respectively (while the Hang Seng Index fell 1% over the same period). Their valuations largely reflect their modeling capabilities, and computing power bottlenecks may limit their revenue growth upside.In the to-B competitive landscape—which covers AI computing power (GPU reserves, cloud ecosystem, self-developed chips), MaaS (token market share, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index ranking, modality coverage), and coding capabilities—Alibaba and ByteDance are in a more favorable position for enterprise monetization, while Zhipu and MiniMax lead in coding capabilities.

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HSBC's latest report highlights a market misjudgment: the AI monetization capabilities of Alibaba and Tencent are systematically underestimated. The stock price corrections for both companies were not driven by pessimism regarding AI prospects, but by short-term concerns over operating expenses. If they can capture market share from the advertising market, their 2027 revenues could see an upside of up to 11%. HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating, with target prices implying upside potential of 44% and 51%, respectively

- The market may be misjudging the AI monetization potential of China's internet giants, Alibaba and Tencent, which a HSBC report states is systematically underestimated.  
- Despite significant AI investment plans and revenue forecasts, the companies' stock prices have dipped due to short-term concerns regarding increased operational costs rather than pessimism about AI's long-term returns.  
- The report suggests that by capturing 10% to 50% of advertising revenue from competitors, both Alibaba and Tencent could see substantial revenue growth by 2027, affirming HSBC's buy ratings with target prices of $180 and HK$750, respectively.

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HSBC's latest report: Alibaba and Tencent's AI Monetization Capabilities Are Underestimated by the Market