Data Commentary | PPI Rises: It's Not Just Crude Oil (Shenwan Hongyuan Macro · Zhao Wei Team)

On April 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the inflation data for March, with the CPI year-on-year at 1%, previous value at 1.3%, expected at 1.3%, and month-on-month at -0.7%; the PPI year-on-year at 0.5%, previous value at -0.9%, expected at 0.5%, and month-on-month at 1%. The rebound in PPI was mainly influenced by the contraction of supply in the mid and downstream sectors and the surge in oil prices, with the supply shock in the downstream of the petrochemical chain increasing the PPI growth rate. Despite the decline in copper prices, the prices of non-ferrous metals such as rare earths and aluminum rose, driving PPI upward. The performance of CPI in March was weaker than in previous years' February, mainly due to a significant decline in food and service prices