<div id="readability-page-1" class="page"><ul><li>Prior was +2.5% y/y</li><li>CPI ___% m/m vs +0.9% expected</li><li>Prior +0.3% m/m</li><li>Non-seasonally adjusted, unrounded ___% vs +0.47% prior</li><li>Core CPI ___% vs 2.7% y/y expected</li><li>Prior core 2.5%</li><li>Core CPI m/m ___% vs +0.9% expected</li><li>Prior core +0.2%</li><li>Real weekly earnings ___% vs +0.1% prior</li><li>CPI Supercore M/M ___% vs +0.350% prior</li><li>CPI Supercore Y/Y ___% vs 2.746% prior</li></ul>Consumer price inflation has been on a gradual but uneven path lower since peaking above 9% in mid-2022. The Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign — which brought the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50% — succeeded in pulling headline CPI back below 3% by late 2024, but the final stretch toward the 2% target has proven stubborn, particularly in services.Shelter costs, which make up roughly a third of the CPI basket, have been the single largest contributor to above-target inflation. Although private-sector rent measures have been cooling for over a year, the BLS methodology captures lease renewals with a significant lag, meaning the official data has been slow to reflect what landlords and tenants are seeing in real time. Most economists expect shelter disinflation to continue feeding through over the coming months, but the pace has repeatedly disappointed.Beyond housing, services inflation more broadly has remained sticky. Categories like auto insurance, medical care, and dining out have proven resistant to monetary policy, driven by labor costs and sector-specific supply dynamics rather than broad demand pressures.The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the target range to 5.00-5.25%, and markets are pricing in further easing this year. But policymakers have emphasized data dependence, and any upside surprise in today's report could push back expectations for the next move. The Iran conflict adds a wildcard — energy price shocks have historically complicated the Fed's task by lifting headline inflation while simultaneously threatening growth.</div>

.DJI

US March CPI rose 3.3% y/y, matching expectations, while core CPI was 2.7% y/y, slightly above the prior 2.5%. Inflation has been gradually decreasing since peaking above 9% in mid-2022, aided by the Fed's rate hikes to 5.25-5.50%. However, shelter costs remain a significant inflation driver, with economists predicting continued disinflation. Services inflation is also persistent, influenced by labor costs. The Fed's recent rate cut to 5.00-5.25% has led to market expectations for further easing, but data dependence remains crucial, especially amid potential energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions.

- Consumer price inflation has gradually decreased since exceeding 9% in mid-2022, aided by the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign, which reduced headline CPI below 3% by late 2024.  
- Despite this, the final push towards the 2% target remains challenging, mainly due to persistent shelter costs and services inflation, which have not responded as expected to monetary policy.  
- The Fed recently lowered rates to 5.00-5.25% while monitoring data closely, with potential surprises in inflation reports influencing future decisions, especially amidst uncertainties from the Iran conflict affecting energy prices.

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US March CPY 3.3% y/y vs 3.3% expected