The United States and Iran recently announced a two-week ceasefire and began negotiations. The Hang Seng Index briefly rose above the 26,000 level last Friday but failed to stabilize. Zhuang Tailiang, Executive Director of the Global Economic and Financial Research Institute at Chinese University, believes that Hong Kong stocks are expected to fluctuate between 24,500 and 26,500 points in the short term. Investors need to be wary of Trump potentially manipulating the market through the war negotiation process and are advised to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude. If there is 1 million yuan for deployment, he would use about two-thirds of the funds to buy stocks that are crucial to the market, such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388), AIA (1299), Tencent (700), and Alibaba (9988).
Reporter: Ye Zhuowei
Zhuang Tailiang admitted that after reaching 28,000 points at the end of January, Hong Kong stocks have undergone adjustments. &#34;The war is just a continuation of the adjustment. The level of around 26,400 points in late February and early March is only 500 points different from the current 25,900 points. Basically, the war this month has just been a sideways consolidation.&#34; He expects that even if the ceasefire negotiations go smoothly, it will still be difficult for Hong Kong stocks to rebound to the early-year highs in the short term, predicting that they will fluctuate between 24,500 and 26,500 points in the coming month, mainly because energy supply cannot be restored immediately. &#34;The destroyed oil and natural gas facilities cannot be restored to supply immediately, and energy shortages and price fluctuations will continue for some time.&#34;
<h2>Trump May Manipulate the Market Through Negotiations</h2>
He anticipates that the chances of a successful ceasefire negotiation between the U.S. and Iran are high, as both sides need to de-escalate, but the negotiation process will be repetitive. The situation is similar to the &#34;reciprocal tariffs&#34; model initiated by Trump last April, repeating the process of &#34;extreme pressure, setting deadlines, and then extending.&#34; He believes that the 14-day ceasefire period may be extended one or two times, and as each ceasefire deadline approaches, the market will fluctuate again. Trump may use this to manipulate the market, &#34;For the whole country, war may not bring any significant benefits, but it can cause oil prices and market fluctuations, which is beneficial for Trump. If it ends so quickly, then there may be nothing to play with,&#34; so investors still need to remain cautious.
<h2>Follow Foreign Capital to Buy Large Blue-Chip Stocks</h2>
When discussing how to allocate 1 million yuan, Zhuang Tailiang said he would invest 50% in stable blue-chip stocks, such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing and AIA; 10% in technology stocks. He pointed out that when foreign capital enters the Hong Kong stock market, it will first choose large stocks like Hong Kong Exchanges, AIA, Tencent, and Alibaba. &#34;If you buy now, you are buying these few,&#34; he noted that most funds are currently passive investments, &#34;using computer programs for trading, they will definitely follow the crowd,&#34; therefore, even if some small and medium-sized stocks have good fundamentals, they are difficult to attract capital. Another 20% of the funds will be allocated to income-generating assets. Zhuang Tailiang mentioned that in the past, he would consider Hong Kong dollar fixed deposits when the rate was 4%, but now he chooses domestic bank stocks, utility stocks, or HSBC (005) as alternatives.
He would also allocate 10% of the funds to non-U.S. currencies like the Australian dollar, &#34;The Australian dollar is relatively strong; even if the U.S. dollar rises, it does not fall much, and the interest rate is high.&#34; More importantly, &#34;Australia does not have any particularly large economic problems,&#34; making it more stable compared to Europe and the UK; finally, he retains 10% in cash for emergencies.
<h2>Teach Young People Financial Management: First Distinguish Between Income and Wealth</h2>
&#34;Everyone is their own economist,&#34; Zhuang Tailiang revealed that since childhood, from choosing university subjects to deciding on a career path, he has weighed the pros and cons with an economic mindset, encouraging young people to plan their careers and retirement preparations early
He achieved excellent results in his A-Level exams, obtaining A(01) in both Mathematics and Economics, and he has an interest in both subjects. Ultimately, his choice to study Economics was very practical: &#34;Facing reality, which subject is likely to earn more money? Everyone thinks Economics earns more, so I studied Economics.&#34; During university, he faced another decision of whether to become a secondary school teacher or a university lecturer. He recalled that at that time, the starting salary for secondary school teachers was at point 17, while university lecturers started at point 34. If a secondary school teacher were to &#34;jump points&#34; every year, it would take 17 years to reach the same salary. Therefore, he decided to teach at the university level. To achieve this goal, he prepared for various exams to study abroad for his doctorate in his third year of university, ultimately completing his PhD in four years and returning to Chinese University to teach at the age of 26.
In 2012, Zhuang Tai Liang published a book to teach young people how to plan their lives, and he often shares financial management wisdom. He emphasizes that young people must first learn to distinguish between income and wealth, convert income into wealth, and then use it to generate passive income. At the same time, they should set clear goals as a direction for their efforts, such as accumulating 10 million by the age of 40. &#34;Don't be afraid of setting high goals; if you set a goal of 10 million, achieving 5 million is also good.&#34; He also shared a personal financial habit—he established an Excel file to update his asset levels every month to understand his personal financial situation. &#34;If it drops, you'll be shocked and need to be more careful.&#34;
If young people successfully accumulate their first pot of gold, he suggests using it to accomplish major life events, such as marriage. &#34;You need to know that some decisions in life have a time factor; partners will age. You can't say, I'll invest this money in stocks first, and marry you in ten years; that partner might leave.&#34;
<h2>Simple Formula for Retirement Savings: 100 Times Monthly Salary Before Retirement</h2>
At the same time, retirement planning should start early. &#34;Thinking about retirement in your 40s is too late; you should plan early, starting in your 20s when you begin working.&#34; For investors who do not know how to pick stocks, he recommends regularly investing in index funds, such as the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800) or U.S. index funds. He continued, saying that long-term investment in U.S. stocks is more suitable because, firstly, U.S. stocks have a history of steady long-term growth, and secondly, &#34;the U.S. system is relatively open, with more innovation, and the market is large, with no issues in population growth.&#34; In contrast, many developed economies face challenges of declining birth rates. &#34;As the economy develops, women's time costs rise, leading to fewer births, which reduces the labor force and gradually shrinks capital.&#34;
As for how much &#34;capital&#34; is enough for retirement, he provided a simple calculation formula—100 times the monthly salary at retirement. If the monthly salary before retirement is about 100,000, then typically, 10 million in liquid assets is needed to maintain the original standard of living.
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Zhuang Tailiang believes that Hong Kong stocks will fluctuate between 24,500 and 26,500 points in the short term, and investors should maintain a cautious attitude. He suggests investing about two-thirds of the funds in blue-chip stocks such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, AIA, Tencent, and Alibaba. Although the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may succeed, the market will still fluctuate due to energy supply issues and manipulation by Trump

- The U.S. and Iran have announced a two-week ceasefire to facilitate negotiations, with Hong Kong's stock index fluctuating between 24,500 and 26,500 points.  
- Economist Zhuang Tailiang suggests that while negotiations may succeed, volatility will continue due to potential market manipulation by Trump and ongoing energy shortages.  
- He advises a cautious investment strategy, allocating funds primarily to stable blue-chip stocks and suggesting a long-term focus on diversified investments, particularly in index funds.

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Zhuang Tai-liang teaches young people the way of financial management, with a plan for retirement "capital" and four blue-chip investment choices｜Million Warehouse｜Million Warehouse