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On April 13, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out that as the short-term factors driving the dollar's rise fade, the narrative of global monetary order reconstruction and the weakening of dollar hegemony may re-dominate market direction: the continuous accumulation of the U.S. net foreign liabilities strengthens its demand for dollar depreciation; the high uncertainty of Trump's policies has not alleviated the risks of &#34;weaponizing&#34; the dollar, which also suppresses market demand for U.S. assets. If the &#34;balance sheet reduction&#34; policy advocated by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Christopher Waller, can be implemented, it would objectively help restore the dollar's credibility. However, Waller's policies are constrained by the capacity of the real economy and financial markets, as well as political factors, and Trump's foreign, trade, and economic policies continue to negatively impact the dollar's credibility. Considering the overall impact of Waller's and Trump's policies, it cannot be concluded that the dollar's credibility will improve in the future. CICC expects that the global monetary order may continue to be reconstructed, pushing the dollar to maintain a long-term depreciation trend.
CICC stated that April is approaching the concentrated disclosure period for the first quarter reports. In conjunction with the first quarter report performance, the following investment themes should be focused on: the current market is significantly affected by external uncertainties, and grasping fundamental turning points and potential recovery may be important investment ideas at present. During the earnings disclosure phase, key areas to focus on include: 1) Highlight areas in the first quarter report performance, such as the upstream resource sector, TMT sector benefiting from high AI prosperity, export chains, and non-bank financials. 2) Growth in prosperity: the current rapid development of the AI industry continues to support demand growth, with attention to optical communication directly benefiting from AI technology implementation, as well as batteries and energy storage benefiting from energy security and industrial chain security. 3) Cyclical resource stocks: considering the capacity cycle position, focus on sub-sectors supported by supply-demand patterns that drive price increases and performance certainty, such as power grids and chemicals. 4) High dividends: in the phase where market risk appetite has not fully recovered, high-dividend sectors have relative yield advantages, but may show phase-specific and structural performance throughout the year.
In addition, CICC pointed out that under the trend of rising power density of global AI single cabinets, the transition from lead to lithium for data center backup power has become a strong consensus in the industry. Domestic lithium battery manufacturers are expected to break the foreign monopoly through private label processing, LFP going overseas to replace ternary batteries, and following Colo companies to go overseas by ship. It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality targets that lead in overseas channel layout and have high-multiplication lithium battery technology reserves

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CICC pointed out on April 13 that the narrative of a weakening dollar may re-dominate the market, as the increase in the United States' net foreign liabilities and policy uncertainty affect the credibility of the dollar. It is expected that the global monetary order will continue to be restructured, driving long-term depreciation of the dollar. Investors should pay attention to highlights in the first quarter reports, especially in sectors benefiting from AI, such as TMT, resource products, and non-bank financials. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on high-dividend sectors and quality targets with lithium battery technology reserves to cope with market volatility

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GLOBAL X Gold Explorers

Us Gbl GLD & Met

Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

Abrdn Gold ETF Trust

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Pro Ultr GLD

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

iShares Gold Trust

Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF

VanEck Gold Miners ETF

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

SPDR Gold Minishares

Sprott GLD Miners Etf

CICC's assessment: The narrative of a weaker dollar returns, focusing on performance inflection points and AI hardware upgrades