Macquarie lowers the target price for J&T EXPRESS to 13.9 yuan, removing it from the key list

Macquarie published a research report indicating that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) showed strong operational data in the first quarter of this year, with year-on-year growth rates in ASEAN and new market volumes accelerating to 80% and 100%, respectively, while the Chinese market also recorded an 8% year-on-year growth, outperforming the industry level. The firm believes that the strong momentum in the ASEAN market is still driven by the robust growth of TikTok Shop.

However, Macquarie pointed out that J&T EXPRESS has a higher risk exposure in countries with significant oil price fluctuations, such as Vietnam, and its pricing power with major customers is relatively weak, which may put pressure on its cost structure and profitability. The firm has removed J&T from its key buy list.

The firm has lowered its earnings forecasts for J&T EXPRESS for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 4% and 5%, respectively, to reflect market growth and profitability prospects, and has reduced its target price by 5%, from HKD 14.6 to HKD 13.9; the rating is "outperform."