In "The Big Banks," China International Capital Corporation predicts JD's first-quarter Non-GAAP net profit to be RMB 5.97 billion and raises the target price to $36

CICC released a report predicting that JD.com (09618.HK) will see a year-on-year revenue increase of 4.5% to RMB 314.6 billion in the first quarter, while non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline by 53% year-on-year to RMB 5.97 billion, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%. The firm expects JD Retail's first-quarter performance to generally align with its previous expectations, with sales of powered products under pressure, but daily necessities maintaining a double-digit growth rate.

The firm anticipates that significant reductions in losses from food delivery will likely drive a quarterly narrowing of losses from new businesses. Starting this year, the revenue from food delivery and instant retail fulfillment will be directly contracted between JD Logistics and merchants, thus related revenue will be fully attributed to JD Logistics from new businesses. On the profit side, it is expected that the scale of losses from new businesses will narrow from RMB 14.8 billion in Q4 2025 to RMB 10.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, mainly considering the easing of competition in food delivery, the first quarter being a low season for food delivery, optimization of subsidy deployment, and an increase in commission revenue, all contributing to the reduction of JD's food delivery losses; additionally, the investment scale in new businesses such as Jingxi and internationalization is expected to remain relatively stable quarter-on-quarter.

Driven by the reduction in food delivery losses, the firm expects JD Group's non-GAAP net profit in the first quarter to be RMB 5.97 billion. Considering the pace of loss reduction in food delivery may exceed expectations, the adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 has been raised by 16.6% to RMB 38.9 billion, while the 2027 forecast has been lowered by 3.2% to RMB 41.4 billion, mainly considering that the revenue side still needs to recover; maintaining an "outperform industry" rating, and given market sentiment, the target price for JD (JD.US) in US stocks has been raised by 9% to $36