On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for the first quarter, showing a GDP growth rate of 5%. Among the economic indicators, two have drawn significant public attention: first, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate rebound in the first quarter; second, real estate investment continued to decline in the first quarter, although some cities experienced a &#34;minor spring&#34; in the housing market.
Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, both domestic and international oil prices have risen. Is this moderate rebound in CPI related to that? At the same time, there have been frequent reports about the &#34;minor spring&#34; in the housing market in the first quarter, but why is real estate investment declining? Can the &#34;minor spring&#34; in the housing market be sustained? To understand the economic data for the first quarter, Nandu N Video reporters interviewed industry experts.
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On April 7, staff refuel a car at a gas station in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Liu Zhenrui)
The impact of the Middle East situation on domestic prices is limited; March PPI turns positive for the first time in three years
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year.
In recent years, China's CPI has been operating at a low level, with last year's CPI at only 0%. Regarding this rebound in CPI, there is speculation that it is related to the situation in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices.
Is this really the case? At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on April 16, Mao Shengyong, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, responded to this. He stated that from the main components of CPI, food is a significant part. In the first quarter of this year, food prices rose by 0.4%, compared to a decline of 1.5% for the entire previous year. The second component is industrial consumer goods, where prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 2.5% in the first quarter, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. In the first quarter, energy prices (including gasoline) fell by 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous year. In the first quarter, service prices rose by 0.8%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year. All four components share a common characteristic: compared to the previous year, the increase has rebounded or the decline has narrowed, but the extent is not significant, indicating a moderate rebound in CPI. Moreover, it can be seen that the changes in gasoline and crude oil prices have a relatively small impact on CPI.
Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, also told Nandu reporters that the weight of fuel in the CPI basket is relatively low, and the domestic refined oil price control mechanism has suppressed the actual burden of oil price fluctuations on residents. Therefore, the impact of the Middle East situation and rising oil prices on domestic CPI is not significant.
&#34;In the Asian economies that have released March CPI data, China is the only one where this indicator has shown a month-on-month decline. This not only proves that the impact of the Iran conflict on China's inflation is limited but also indicates that China's efforts for 're-inflation' have a long way to go. Generally speaking, it is internationally recognized that a CPI increase of 2% is reasonable, and China still has some distance to cover.&#34;
&#34;Xu Tianchen said.
Xu Tianchen also stated that compared to CPI, the situation in the Middle East and oil prices have a greater impact on PPI (Producer Price Index, an important economic indicator reflecting price changes in the production sector during a certain period). It can be seen that the PPI turned positive for the first time in three years in March. By industry, the oil and gas extraction, oil and gas processing, and chemical industries saw significant increases, directly reflecting the impact of rising oil prices.
However, Mao Shengyong stated at the press conference that the situation in the Middle East and oil prices are not the main factors leading to the rise in domestic PPI. On one hand, the supply and demand relationship in the domestic market has further improved, which is the main reason. In particular, the intelligent and green upgrades in industries have driven the expansion of demand for related products, leading to price increases. On the other hand, the market competition order is gradually optimizing. The capacity governance in key industries is being solidly and orderly advanced, and the deep rectification of &#34;involution&#34; competition has achieved positive results, promoting the improvement of supply and demand relationships in some industries and driving the price rebound in related industries.
In addition, a reporter from Nandu noted that pork prices fell by 11.3% in the first quarter, a significant decline. Xu Tianchen stated that pork prices actually reflect that the pig cycle is still bottoming out. Currently, there is a situation of oversupply in pork, but why has this phenomenon not alleviated? This is because the supply pattern of pork in China has changed in recent years, shifting from being dominated by small farmers to being led by large enterprises. During the decline in pork prices, large enterprises have not reduced production, hoping to first &#34;outlast&#34; other competitors to gain further control over market share.
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In a real estate project in Guangzhou, citizens are viewing houses.
When will the real estate market hit bottom? Experts estimate the possibility of a full rebound is low.
Recently, information about the warming of the real estate market and a &#34;small spring&#34; in the market has been frequent.
On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities for March 2026. The data shows that in the 70 cities, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in commercial residential sales prices, while the month-on-month decline in second and third-tier cities narrowed or remained the same. Among them, Shanghai and Guangzhou led the new housing market with a 0.3% increase, while Beijing led the second-hand housing market with a 0.6% increase.
In stark contrast to the data of the &#34;small spring&#34; in the real estate market are the investment and sales data for new homes. Official data shows that real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 19.525 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the sales amount of newly built commercial housing was 1.7262 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.7%.
How should we view these sets of data? Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate, told Nandu reporters that this is not contradictory. The performance of the &#34;small spring&#34; is mainly concentrated in a few cities and is primarily reflected in the transactions of second-hand houses. In the first quarter, second-hand houses in first-tier and core cities warmed up first, and the pace of price decline slowed; however, nationwide investment and new construction have deeply declined, and sales and prices in second and third-tier cities are still under pressure, presenting a pattern of &#34;first-tier recovery, nationwide bottoming out, and increasing differentiation.&#34;
Why is the recovery of the second-hand housing market faster than that of new homes? Zhang Dawei analyzes that the core reason lies in the better supply structure of second-hand homes, lower transaction costs, and stronger liquidity. The price increase of second-hand homes in first-tier cities is significantly higher than that of new homes, reflecting the market's pursuit of irreplaceable resources such as prime locations, quality school districts, and mature facilities.
Zhang Dawei also stated that the &#34;small spring&#34; is centered on second-hand homes and first-tier cities, and has not yet led to a comprehensive reversal nationwide. The &#34;small spring&#34; occurs every year, and the key is to continuously monitor the sustainability of investment and sales data, as well as the effectiveness of policy implementation; otherwise, it will be difficult for the market to maintain a &#34;small spring.&#34;
Regarding the widely concerned topic of whether the real estate market has hit bottom, Zhang Dawei expressed that, in the long run, the likelihood of a comprehensive rebound in national housing prices is low. The differentiated pattern determined by city levels, regional resources, and product quality will continue. First-tier cities, with their quality education, healthcare, and employment resources, will maintain relatively stable housing prices, highlighting the value of core assets. The housing prices in second- and third-tier cities will differentiate according to regional economic development and population flow; cities with a strong economic foundation and net population inflow are expected to stabilize and rebound in housing prices, while cities experiencing population outflow will still face adjustment pressures.
In addition, the recent verdict in the Xu Jiayin case and the false news about Vanke founder Wang Shi being arrested have sparked widespread public attention. What changes in the real estate market do these reflect? Zhang Dawei said that the Xu Jiayin case sends a strong signal of industry regulation and risk clearance, while the rumors about &#34;Wang Shi being arrested&#34; reflect the public opinion ecology during a sensitive period in the industry.
Written by: Nandu N Video reporters Yang Wenjun and Mo Qianru from Beijing

On April 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic data for the first quarter, with GDP growth at 5%. CPI showed a moderate rebound, mainly influenced by rising prices of food and industrial consumer goods, while the impact of rising oil prices on CPI was relatively small. Although real estate investment has declined, some cities have experienced a "mini spring" in the housing market. Experts analyze that whether the housing market can continue to warm up still requires attention

腾讯新闻 - 财经

Is the rise in prices related to the situation in the Middle East? Has the real estate market hit bottom? Understanding the economic data for the first quarter