By Victor Reklaitis
There could eventually be payouts to individuals due to lawsuits, but the refunds will first go almost exclusively to companies
Tariff refunds have been in the works for about two months following a Supreme Court decision.
Tariff refunds are getting closer to flowing into bank accounts, with the U.S. government slated to start processing refund claims on Monday.
The refunds have been in the works for about two months, since the Supreme Court knocked down the bulk of President Donald Trump's tariffs in a Feb. 20 ruling.
A 6-3 majority of justices found that Trump exceeded his authority in using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to implement most of his tariffs. The president has responded with a new 10% global tariff, and his administration said on Tuesday that by the start of July, tariffs could be back at the levels in place before the ruling, as officials apply other authorities.
But for now, should you expect to see a refund in your bank account anytime soon? If you're a typical U.S. consumer, probably not, although some individuals could receive one, and others may eventually benefit from class-action lawsuits.
In the vast majority of cases, companies have served as &#34;importers of record&#34; and will get refunds after submitting their claims.
Below are key points about the big commotion over getting money back.
Why individuals shouldn't count on tariff refunds
A new government system for handling the tariff refunds is aimed at &#34;importers of record,&#34; which are the entities that paid duties at the border and brought in goods.
Those entities are &#34;overwhelmingly commercial importers and their customs brokers,&#34; Terence Lau, dean of Syracuse University's law school and a former trade attorney for Ford (F), said in an email to MarketWatch.
&#34;An individual consumer who bought a more expensive blender at Target (TGT) because the retailer passed along tariff costs has no standing in this process. There's no legal mechanism connecting a specific retail price increase to a specific tariff payment,&#34; Lau added.
There's likely a small number of individuals who were importers of record, but the share of refund dollars going to individuals probably will end up well under 1%, according to Lau. Congress is aware of the situation, and there's proposed legislation to create rebate mechanisms for consumers, but no such bill is close to becoming law.
How individual FedEx customers could see refunds
Individuals who try to claim a tariff refund could find the process &#34;a bit more complicated than they may expect,&#34; said Kimberly Daniels, a customs broker and chief executive of Mercantile Logistics &amp; International Trade Inc. But if they used a courier company like FedEx (FDX), that company &#34;should handle all refund requirements, and many of the courier services have already vowed to refund the tariffs to the customer,&#34; said Daniels, who is part of a new advocacy group called Small Businesses Against Tariffs.
FedEx has stated that it &#34;will issue refunds for IEEPA tariffs paid to the shippers and consumers who originally bore those charges.&#34; The company said it's &#34;committed to working expeditiously&#34; to send out the refunds for &#34;its customers for whom it served as customs broker as soon as it begins receiving refunds from CBP,&#34; referring to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
A class-action lawsuit against FedEx is asking U.S. courts to impose a legal obligation to provide full refunds, with the law firm behind the suit saying that &#34;a press release is not a legal obligation.&#34; The lead plaintiff in the suit is a Miami man who said he was billed $36 in tariffs and fees for tennis shoes that he ordered from an online retailer in Germany.
What to know about companies sharing their refunds
Whether companies will share refunds with customers &#34;is the $160 billion question,&#34; and the answer is probably &#34;not at any significant scale,&#34; said Syracuse's Lau. Estimates for the amount that will get refunded overall have ranged from $160 billion to $175 billion, with a key court recently putting the figure at $166 billion.
There's no legal obligation for an importer to pass refunds downstream, and it can be tough to work out how much to pay out, because tariff costs were embedded in prices alongside dozens of other variables like supply-chain disruptions, currency fluctuations and demand shifts, Lau said. But there could be pressure to share ultimately &#34;not from goodwill but from litigation risk,&#34; he added. Class-action lawsuits already are alleging unjust enrichment, as many companies that passed along tariffs to consumers through higher prices are now getting refunds.
One such lawsuit involves eyeglass giant EssilorLuxottica (FR:EL). The lead plaintiff is a New York man who says he bought Ray-Ban sunglasses that were priced higher than in the past due to tariffs.
Related: Shoppers seeking a tariff refund from retailers are likely out of luck
Some importers may give credits to their customers, but others could choose to keep the windfall from refunds in order &#34;to be prepared for the current added 10% tariffs&#34; and for future tariffs that the administration may impose through various authorities, said Daniels from Mercantile Logistics &amp; International Trade.
These companies and sectors are getting tariff refunds
PwC has offered estimates on which industries look set to get tariff refunds.
The technology, media and telecom sector and the industrial products and manufacturing sector appear to be among the most affected industries when it comes to the potential for refunds, according to PwC, which produced the chart above.
Consumer products and automotive are not far behind, followed by pharmaceuticals, said Kristin Bohl, a customs and international trade partner at PwC.
There are more than 3,000 cases now at the U.S. Court of International Trade that involve claims for IEEPA refunds, &#34;so the types of companies eligible are on the full spectrum,&#34; said Ashley Gifford, a senior attorney at law firm Clark Hill.
Costco Wholesale (COST) has gotten attention for seeking refunds, but plenty of other household names and publicly traded companies are doing the same thing. &#34;Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods, Toyota (TM), Conair, Lavazza North America, Xerox (XRX), Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber (GT), Smeg, Mars, Sears, Steve Madden (SHOO), Bissell, Bath &amp; Body Works (BBWI) are some other big names that have filed cases at the CIT for refunds,&#34; Clark Hill's Gifford told MarketWatch in an email.
What's involved in the refund process
Customs and Border Protection on Monday is expected to begin accepting big spreadsheet files from companies listing imports that were subject to IEEPA tariffs.
In the first phase of the refund process, &#34;unliquidated entries&#34; will get handled, meaning entries of goods where the tariff payment hasn't been finalized. The first phase also will handle refunds for goods that are within 80 days of having their tariff payments finalized. This approach is expected to cover about 63% of the IEEPA duties that have been paid.
CBP has promised to get payments out in 60 to 90 days, and they will come via electronic transfers, not paper checks.
Companies seeking refunds ought to be &#34;planning for the overall IEEPA impact on the business,&#34; said PwC's Bohl. &#34;While IEEPA is first and foremost a trade issue, it can have downstream impacts for tax, transfer pricing, accounting and commercial considerations.&#34;
-Victor Reklaitis
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Tariff refunds are set to begin as the U.S. government starts processing claims following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated many of Trump's tariffs. Refunds will primarily go to companies, as they are the "importers of record" who paid the duties. Individual consumers are unlikely to receive refunds directly, although some may benefit from class-action lawsuits. FedEx has committed to refunding tariffs to customers it served as a customs broker. The total refunds could range from $160 billion to $175 billion, but companies are not legally obligated to pass these refunds to consumers.

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