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<h2>Key Points</h2><ul><li>In the wake of the Iran war, major Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo slashed their S&amp;P 500 price targets -- but history suggests these forecasts often miss the mark.</li><li>In five of the past six years, Wall Street significantly underestimated where the market finished, missing by as much as 28% to the upside.</li><li>While the risks to the global economy are real, investors who stick it out usually come out ahead -- and in the long run, they always do.</li><li>10 stocks we like better than S&amp;P 500 Index ›</li></ul><p>While the market has reversed course in recent weeks, it remains to be seen where the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> <span class="ticker">(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)</span> will end up at year's end.</p><p>Wall Street's perfomance has been mixed, but in the wake of the Iran war, much of the Street has been slashing its price targets. <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> cut its forecast, saying the conflict means a &#34;more constrained&#34; upside. <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> followed a few days later, trimming its target from 7,800 to 7,300, and several other firms have dialed back expectations as well. </p><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »</em></p><img alt="An investor pressing the word invest. " src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTgyMS9pbnZlc3RpbmdfbWFya2V0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" height="496" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTgyMS9pbnZlc3RpbmdfbWFya2V0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/>
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<p>It makes sense, with oil prices elevated -- the effects of which are only beginning to be felt -- and consumer confidence hitting record lows, it's easy to believe the market will underperform this year. </p><p>But history has a lesson for investors who put too much stock in Wall Street's targets. Let's look at how accurate these forecasts have actually been -- and what patterns emerge.</p><h2>Wall Street's forecasting track record isn't great</h2><p>Here's the track record:</p><section><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Consensus Target</th>
<th>Actual Year-End Close</th>
<th>Difference</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>~3,300</td>
<td>3,756</td>
<td>14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>~4,100</td>
<td>4,766</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>~4,950</td>
<td>3,840</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>~4,050</td>
<td>4,770</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>~4,720</td>
<td>5,881</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>~6,600</td>
<td>6,846</td>
<td>4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></section><p></p><p>Data sources: macrotrends.net, Avantis Investors.</p><p>The pattern is striking: In five of the past six years, Wall Street significantly underestimated where the market actually finished -- in some cases by nearly 30%. The lone exception was 2022, when a bear market driven by a rapid rise in interest rates caught nearly everyone off guard.</p><p>So in general, Wall Street tends to miss on the low side. That's worth remembering when you see another downward revision.</p><h2>Why 2026 could be different</h2><p>The 2026 setup has echoes of April 2025, when the market reacted to massive tariffs from the Trump administration. These were significantly scaled back relatively quickly, and the market dip was short-lived.</p><p>Of course, there's plenty of reason to believe this might be different. While there has been diplomatic progress and a deal might soon be reached, the flow of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz could be affected for months to come, if not longer. Critical infrastructure throughout the area has already been destroyed, and shipping rates are likely to be elevated for some time, even if a peace deal is reached. Operators will be wary of a re-escalation.</p><p>If a deal isn't reached and the waterway remains shut for months, a global recession would be hard to avoid.</p><p>At the end of the day, you have to take any prediction with a heavy grain of salt, even if it is from Wall Street. And while the risks to the global economy are very real, investors who stick it out usually come out ahead in the short term. In the long run, they always do.</p><p>For those of us who lack a crystal ball, time in the market will always beat timing the market.</p><h2>Should you buy stock in S&amp;P 500 Index right now?</h2>
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<p style="color: #767676; text-align: left"><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of April 19, 2026. </em></p><p><em>Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
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<p>In response to the Iran war, major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have reduced their S&P 500 price targets, despite historically underestimating market performance in five of the last six years. The firms have cited elevated oil prices and low consumer confidence as reasons for their cautious outlook. However, history suggests that investors who remain patient typically see positive returns. The article emphasizes the unpredictability of market forecasts and advises caution when interpreting Wall Street predictions.</p>

- Following the Iran conflict, major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have lowered their S&P 500 price targets, despite a history of underestimating market performance.  
- In five of the past six years, forecasts missed actual market closings by as much as 28%, indicating a consistent trend of Wall Street's conservative estimates.  
- While risks remain, historical data suggests that long-term investors often regain their footing, emphasizing the importance of remaining invested rather than attempting to time the market.

nasdaq

JPMorgan Chase

Wells Fargo

S&P 500

VG Financial

iShares Core S&P 500

SPDR S&P 500

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long JPM ETF

VG S&P 500

NVIDIA

Intel

Netflix

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A DD

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 INT PER PFD SER Y A

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A CC

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 4.75% DEP SHS 1/1000 NCUM PFD CL A SR Z

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT PFD SR AA (CLA)

NVIDIA Corporation

Wall Street Is Slashing Stock Market Targets Over the Iran War. They've Been Wrong 5 of the Past 6 Years.