Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran. Subsequently, Iranian state media reported receiving signals that the US is preparing to lift sanctions. These dual positives have boosted market risk sentiment.
International oil prices faced further pressure, safe-haven asset gold strengthened, the US dollar weakened, and US stock futures rose.
According to Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian official told local media that Iran has received &#34;some signals&#34; indicating the US is prepared to lift sanctions, though details were not disclosed. Following the news, global crude benchmark Brent fell 1.8%, breaking below $97 per barrel; spot gold surged over 1% intraday to approximately $4,760 per ounce; the US Dollar Index fell about 0.15% intraday.
In equity markets, S&amp;P 500 Index Futures advanced 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 Index Futures rose 0.7%; European index futures erased earlier losses and turned up 0.1%.
However, market sentiment remains divided between hope and concern. The shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. Analysts warn that the rapid rebound in asset prices may have already priced in expectations of de-escalation, and substantial risks have not yet dissipated.
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>
The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.4% at 59,585.86 points. The Tokyo Stock Price Index closed down 0.7% at 3,744.99 points.
</li>
<li>
S&amp;P 500 Index Futures advanced 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 Index Futures rose 0.7%. European index futures erased earlier losses and turned up 0.1%.
</li>
<li>
The US Dollar Index weakened, falling 0.15% intraday.
</li>
<li>
US Treasuries continued their decline; the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond remained flat at 4.29%; bond prices for similar maturities in Japan and Australia also fell;
</li>
<li>
International crude prices dipped short-term, with both Brent and WTI falling over 1% intraday;
</li>
<li>
Spot gold surged short-term, rising over 1% intraday;
</li>
<li>
Silver rose 1.8% to $78.15 per ounce.
</li>
<li>
Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $77,473.71
</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<h2>US-Iran Stalemate Breakthrough: Sanctions Lift Signals Reshape Global Risk Appetite</h2>
Trump's recent remarks stand in stark contrast to his previous stance. Just last Monday, Trump stated in a phone interview that extending the ceasefire would be &#34;highly unlikely&#34; if no agreement was reached. However, days later, he announced an indefinite extension of the truce, blaming Tehran's &#34;severely fractured&#34; leadership structure for the breakdown in negotiations.
According to semi-official Tasnim News Agency, Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, stated, &#34;We have received some signals indicating they are ready to break the blockade. Once they lift it, I believe the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad.&#34; He added, &#34;If they are willing to sit down and negotiate for a political solution, we are ready. If they insist on war, Iran is also ready.&#34; Iravani did not provide further details on the nature or timing of these &#34;signals.&#34;
Following the news, commodity and foreign exchange markets reacted swiftly—international oil prices dropped short-term, with both Brent and WTI falling over 1% intraday; spot gold surged short-term, rising over 1% intraday; and the US Dollar Index declined slightly by 0.15%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/90fdbf41-403b-4d1b-8c5b-a98e31a526fb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/90fdbf41-403b-4d1b-8c5b-a98e31a526fb.png"/>
<h2>Market Rebound May Be Excessive: Shadow of Hormuz Blockade Lingers</h2>
Although global equities have recovered losses caused by the war and oil prices have partially absorbed risk premiums, Bloomberg strategist Garfield Reynolds warns that the market may be too optimistic. He pointed out that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is causing ongoing shortages of fuel, fertilizer, and other critical supplies. Current pricing in futures markets reflects an expectation that these gaps will disappear quickly, but this assumption may not hold, suggesting the V-shaped rebound in stocks could be coming &#34;too fast and too hard.&#34;
Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a research report that while the ceasefire provides overall support for risk assets, the situation in Asia may differ: &#34;Many Asian economies are highly dependent on energy imports, so the damage caused by a prolonged standoff is actually greater, especially compared to the US which has higher energy self-sufficiency.&#34;
Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis CIB stated, &#34;The market hopes to pressure Trump into making concessions,&#34; implying that the duration of the conflict with Iran will be constrained by market pressures.
William Blair fund manager Vivian Lin Thurston told Bloomberg Television, &#34;The initial shock of the war may have passed; we are entering an uncertain period of back-and-forth stalemate. If you believe fundamentals remain supportive, the market will navigate through the recent uncertainties and noise related to the war.&#34;
<h2>Fed Nominee: Will Maintain Independence</h2>
On monetary policy, Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, stated that the Fed needs to establish a new framework to address persistent inflation, though he provided no specific details. He emphasized that Trump did not ask him to make any commitments regarding future interest rate decisions.
&#34;The President nominated me, and if confirmed as Fed Chair, I will act as an independent actor,&#34; Warsh said.
In other markets, US Treasuries continued their decline; the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond remained flat at 4.29%; bond prices for similar maturities in Japan and Australia also fell; silver rose 1.8% to $78.15 per ounce.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/968af4cf-6342-4b3d-8e1c-ee949762e110.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/968af4cf-6342-4b3d-8e1c-ee949762e110.png"/>

600547

GOLD

Global crude benchmark Brent fell 1.8%, dropping below $97 per barrel; spot gold gained over 1% intraday to around $4,760 per ounce; the US Dollar Index declined about 0.15%. S&P 500 Index Futures advanced 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 Index Futures rose 0.7%; Asian equities narrowed losses, while European index futures erased earlier losses and turned up 0.1%

- Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, positively impacting market risk sentiment amid signals from Iran that the U.S. may lift sanctions.  
- Following the announcements, Brent oil prices fell by 1.8%, while gold rose over 1%, and the U.S. dollar weakened by 0.15%.  
- However, analysts warn that the swift market rebound may be overly optimistic given ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to create supply challenges.

Wallstreetcn

SD-GOLD

Gold.com

Newmont

Agnico Eagle Mines

ZHONGJIN GOLD

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X

GLOBAL X Gold Explorers

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

EFUND GOLD MI ETF

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN

Sprott GLD Miners Etf

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 2X

EFUND GOLD MI-U

ChinaAMC Gold ETF

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF

Us Gbl GLD & Met

US-Iran Stalemate Shows Signs of Thaw; Oil Prices Drop Nearly 2%, Gold Surges Over 1%, Global Equity Markets Narrow Losses