<div id="readability-page-1"><div>BOC Hong Kong (02388.HK) +0.120 (+0.275%) Short selling $85.79M; Ratio 21.393% will announce its 1Q26 results tomorrow (29th). M Stanley said 1Q26 HIBOR fell 66 bps QoQ, offsetting positive contributions from wealth management, markets business and cost control. Based on a survey of three brokers, 1Q26 pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) is forecast at between HKD14.898 billion and HKD15.765 billion, representing a YoY decline of 1.3% to 6.7% from the estimated HKD15.968 billion in 1Q25.Aggregating estimates from the three brokers, 1Q26 pre-provision net operating income is projected at HKD19.114 billion to HKD20.049 billion, compared with HKD20.087 billion in 1Q25, representing a YoY change of -4.8% to -0.2%. Investors will focus on BOC Hong Kongs exposure to commercial real estate in Hong Kong and Mainland China, the non-performing loan ratio, and managements latest guidance on credit costs and future shareholder return plans.HIBOR Falls QoQ; Focus on Shareholder ReturnsM Stanley expects 1Q26 operating income of HKD19.114 billion, down 4.8% YoY (down 4% QoQ). Core net interest income is forecast at HKD15.478 billion, up 5% YoY (down 12% QoQ). Net fee and commission income is estimated at HKD3.186 billion, down 7% YoY. PPoP is projected at HKD14.899 billion, down 6.7% YoY (up 5% QoQ) (market consensus: HKD15.949 billion). Pre-tax profit (excluding one-offs) is estimated at HKD13.642 billion, down 7% YoY (up 23% QoQ) (market consensus: HKD13.88 billion). The broker forecasts an adjusted NIM of 1.59% for 1Q26, widening 4 bps YoY but narrowing 11 bps QoQ, with a cost-to-income ratio of 22.05%. It expects a first interim dividend of HKD0.29.Citi said in a report earlier this month that 1Q26 operating profit would reach HKD14.5 billion, up 30% QoQ but down 2% YoY. Due to the decline in HIBOR (average one-month HIBOR fell 73 bps QoQ to 2.48%), NIM is expected to decline QoQ, while revenue is projected to rise 1% QoQ and remain flat YoY at HKD20 billion. Although uncertainties remain over commercial real estate asset quality, the broker expects new NPL formation in 1Q26 to remain manageable and asset quality to stay stable. It forecasts an adjusted NIM of 1.57% for 1Q26 (down 14 bps QoQ). Net fee income is estimated at HKD3.2 billion, down 8% YoY, mainly due to a high base in insurance brokerage income, while other wealth-related fee income is expected to perform well. Citi sets a TP of HKD50, equivalent to 1.4x forecast PB for this year, and expects DPS of HKD2.31 and HKD2.58 for 2026 and 2027, respectively.UBS noted that whether credit costs decline will determine the trajectory of operating profit. Commercial real estate exposure remains the key risk area. The broker expects credit costs to be significantly lower than the peak of 73 bps in 4Q25 but may still stay at a relatively high level for the full year. For 1Q26, its model assumes credit costs of 28 bps, down 2 bps YoY, and anticipates a decline in the NPL ratio due to charge-offs.----------------------------Based on estimates from three brokers, BOC Hong Kongs 1Q26 PPoP is forecast at HKD14.898 billion to HKD15.765 billion, representing a YoY decline of 1.3% to 6.7% from HKD15.968 billion in 1Q25.Broker 1Q26 PPoP Forecast YoY Change Citi HKD15.765 billion -1.3% UBS HKD15.748 billion -1.4% M Stanley HKD14.899 billion -6.7% Based on 1Q25 PPoP of HKD15.968 billion ----------------------------Aggregated forecasts from three brokers indicate 1Q26 pre-provision net operating income of HKD19.114 billion to HKD20.049 billion, representing a YoY change of -4.8% to -0.2% from HKD20.087 billion in 1Q25.Broker 1Q26 Pre-provision Net Operating Income Forecast YoY Change Citi HKD20.049 billion -0.2% UBS HKD19.991 billion -0.5% M Stanley HKD19.114 billion -4.8% Based on 1Q25 pre-provision net operating income of HKD20.087 billion (wl/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-27 16:25.)</div>This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.</div>

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Brokers forecast BOC Hong Kong's 1Q26 pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) to be between HKD14.898 billion and HKD15.765 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.3% to 6.7%. The bank's operating income is expected to decrease by 4.8% YoY, with a focus on its exposure to commercial real estate and management's guidance on credit costs and shareholder returns. Analysts predict a first interim dividend of HKD0.29 and highlight the importance of credit costs in determining future operating profit.

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Brokers Expect BOC Hong Kong  1Q26 PPoP to Exceed HKD14.8B-15.7B, Focus on Shareholder Return Guidance