Interview with Cathie Wood: The Next Bull Market is Coming

Compiled & Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlowGuest: Cathie Wood, CEO & CIO of ARK InvestHost: RobbiePodcast Source: The RollupOriginal Title: Cathie Wood: The Next Bull Market Is HereBroadcast Date: April 28, 2026Editor's NoteARK Invest founder Cathie Wood recently appeared on The Rollup, where she gave a clear Bitcoin price prediction: $730,000 in the baseline scenario of 2030, $1.5 million in the bull market scenario, and currently in the bottoming phase, with on-chain analysis showing an absolute bottom between $50,000 and $1.5 million. The target price is in the $55,000 range. She also offered a macroeconomic prediction overlooked by the market: AI training costs are decreasing by 75% annually, and inference costs by 85%-95% annually, triggering a round of "good deflation." Trueflation (a blockchain-based real-time inflation indicator) has already seen its core inflation rate drop to 1.3%, likely forcing the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing, which will be a catalyst for the next wave of growth in digital assets. Furthermore, she revealed that ARK's crypto research team has reduced quarterly report production time by 75% using Claude Co-work, and believes that the payment layer for Agentic AI will inevitably be built on the blockchain. Key QuotesBitcoin Pricing and Cycle Judgment"Our baseline forecast is that Bitcoin will reach $730,000 in 2030, and $1.5 million in a bull market scenario.""A 50% drop doesn't count as a bear market; compared to previous drops of 85% or 95%, this is child's play.""Our on-chain analyst, David Puell, says the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. But I doubt it will reach that.""The correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is only... 0.14. In the past two cycles, gold started before Bitcoin, and this time is no exception. "Stablecoins and the Evolution of DeFi" "CZ and I agree that the biggest surprise from Bitcoin's early days to now has been the rise of stablecoins." "Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to enjoy network effects." "We originally thought Bitcoin would take on the role that stablecoins are now playing, especially in emerging markets. But stablecoins have become a bridge from traditional finance to DeFi." "The Turning Point in Institutional Adoption" "Larry Fink's shift is too radical. He finally understands that the internet has never had a financial layer, and tokenization can fill that gap. His shift has given the entire industry permission, and if he says it's important, I'd better look into it too. "When we first bought Bitcoin in 2015, we were ridiculed; many thought it was just a marketing gimmick. That collective mockery only made me more convinced that we had made the right bet." "Macroeconomics and the Logic of Deflation" "The federal funds rate has already fallen by 175 basis points, but the market narrative is still that the Fed is too hawkish." "AI training costs are decreasing by 75% annually, and inference costs are decreasing by 85% to 95% annually. We will see a huge wave of benign deflation." "Agentic AI" Intersection with Blockchain"In the future, we'll have a bunch of chatbots working for us. We'll have to pay Claude, pay the bots that provide the data. It's all machine-to-machine, and the blockchain payment system is the only reasonable infrastructure.""Our crypto team uses Claude Co-work for quarterly reports, cutting production time by 75%. All that saved time is freed up for in-depth research."ARK's Five Innovation PlatformsRobbie: You have five innovation platforms, which have spawned 15 technologies, and these technologies are now converging. Before we delve into the digital asset and public chain fields, could you give us a macro perspective? How do you view the topic of disruptive innovation?Cathie Wood: The seeds for everything we have today were sown early in my career. I watched those seeds being planted in the 80s and 90s. But cloud computing didn't really emerge until AWS launched in 2006. Back then, when I tried to explain cloud computing to investors and advisors, it was complete fantasy to them. The major breakthrough in AI didn't come until deep learning in 2012 and the Transformer architecture in 2017 (which later spawned ChatGPT and natural language programming). In the late 90s, too much capital chased too few opportunities, too early. But today, the situation is completely reversed. Five innovative platforms and 15 technologies are all ready, yet investors are filled with fear. As a fund manager, I prefer operating in this environment to the crazy bubble period of the past. Today's valuations are much lower than during the bubble era, the technology is ready, and most importantly, costs are falling at an astonishing rate, meaning these technologies can reach more industries and individuals. I founded ARK in 2014 because institutional investors became extremely risk-averse after the dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis. The entire industry shifted to passive investing, which fueled the ETF boom. Even in active management, fund managers heavily rely on benchmark indices to select targets. But we don't do that; our selection criteria are original research. Traditional financial research teams are divided by industry, for example, five consumer analysts, five healthcare analysts, etc. But we believe that to properly grasp innovation, research teams must be organized around those 15 technologies because these technologies will cut across all industries. Robbie: Why are investors so afraid? Is it because they haven't figured out the organizational structure to understand these technological convergences? Cathie Wood: This convergence is indeed confusing. Tesla is the best example. Most research directors assign Tesla to automotive analysts, but it should actually be assigned to at least technology analysts, or more precisely, to a collaborative analysis team of three: a robotics analyst, an energy storage analyst, and an AI analyst. Assigning it to experts studying internal combustion engines and autonomous vehicles is misguided; we are moving from the old world towards electrification and autonomous driving. AI is developing too fast and impacting too many industries at once, which is itself a disruptive experience. Research directors need time to figure out how to reorganize. They need to allocate people by technology direction and build a collaborative culture. In traditional institutions, if a stock is assigned to an automotive analyst, no one else can touch it. This model must change because technologies are converging, and analysts must collaborate to understand the potential of these companies. Robbie: We've seen a lot of tribalism in the crypto industry, and the story of digital assets clearly started with Bitcoin. When you founded ARK in 2014, Bitcoin was still finding its footing. What were your thoughts on Bitcoin at that time? Was it ready for institutional allocation? Cathie Wood: Not yet. I had actually been following and discussing Bitcoin at my previous company, purely out of curiosity. I brought the most passionate Bitcoin analyst to ARK, who is now our Chief Futurist, Brett Winton. When we founded ARK in 2014, we only had four innovation platforms, merging AI and blockchain into a category called "Next Generation Internet." That's where our fund, ARK, got its name. At that time, AI had just made a breakthrough in deep learning and was still very new. Blockchain excited us, but we weren't sure if it deserved to be a separate entity. In 2015, we collaborated with Art Laffer (the originator of the Laffer Curve and a monetary economist who studied under Nobel laureate Robert Mundell) to publish the first Bitcoin white paper. The core question was: Can Bitcoin fulfill the three functions of money: medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account? Art told me at the time, "This is what I've been waiting for since the US closed the gold window in 1971." I asked him how ambitious this idea was, and he countered, "How large is the US monetary base?" At the time, it was $4.5 trillion, while the Bitcoin network value was only $6 billion. He was talking about trillions. I immediately made a personal investment. To find the best exposure for our clients, we needed approval from the NYSE and the SEC. We eventually found GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). Bitcoin was worth $250 at the time. In the summer of 2015, when Greece threatened to leave the EU, we established our first position because we noticed that Bitcoin would rise whenever there was such geopolitical news. It can act as both a risk-averse and a safe-haven asset, playing different roles at different times. Robbie: Looking back at that era, the mainstream narrative was "Institutions are coming to buy our Bitcoin." Now it's 2026, and we are indeed seeing the adoption of ETFs and stablecoins, the explosion of tokenized assets, permissioned blockchains, large institutions launching actual products, and the integration of traditional institutional adoption with crypto-native culture and infrastructure—this is the biggest integration in the digital asset space. But an interesting phenomenon is that crypto natives, those who should be the most committed, are now experiencing a sense of apathy and internal disappointment. Meanwhile, newly entered large institutions and companies are more optimistic. How do you interpret this situation? Cathie Wood: Several things are happening simultaneously. When we bought Bitcoin in 2015, we were really ridiculed. Many people thought it was just a marketing gimmick. But when so many people laugh at you or dismiss it, I become even more interested. The current landscape is this: Bitcoin has the global monetary system track. In DeFi, Ethereum and Solana are leading the way, and Hyperliquid (a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform) is also establishing itself. Regarding institutional adoption, I think Larry Fink's transformation was a key turning point. He was once a vocal critic of Bitcoin, but his transformation was extremely thorough. His transformation stemmed from a vision: the tokenization of everything. He finally understood that the internet was built without a financial layer because no one imagined e-commerce and online investment; it was initially just information exchange, and some even thought it was just gambling and illegal activities. Fink's awakening gave the entire industry permission. Before, we had to fight him and Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan Chase). But when Fink changed his tune, the industry's reaction was that if he said it was important, we had to learn it too. And BlackRock has Aladdin (a technology platform serving the asset management industry); if Fink says tokenization is important, then asset management companies using Aladdin have to follow suit. Another crucial development for DeFi is the evolution of stablecoins. I just did a podcast with CZ (Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance) yesterday. We both agreed that the biggest surprise from Bitcoin's early days to now has been the rise of fiat-backed stablecoins. This was quite unconventional in the early crypto ecosystem. But now even Bitcoin OGs are fully supporting them; Tether's Giancarlo and Paolo were among the earliest OGs. Stablecoins have become a bridge from traditional finance to DeFi. We originally thought Bitcoin would take on this role, especially in emerging markets. Even in emerging markets, the Bitcoin community sees stablecoins as a humanitarian "stepping stone" into the crypto world, as most emerging market residents cannot afford Bitcoin's volatility and live off their daily income. As their wealth grows, they will naturally shift from stablecoins to other investment options within the crypto ecosystem. Another big question is whether stablecoins will be a winner-takes-all scenario? Network effects suggest so. Ironically, the delay in the Clarity Act gave Tether and Circle more time to build network effects. CZ believes there will be a stablecoin boom, and our team members Lorenzo, David, and Ray agree. But regardless of whether a boom occurs, everyone agrees that it will ultimately consolidate in the hands of a few winners. Why is tokenization the core narrative? Robbie: We've been discussing on the show that the tokenization wave started with non-speculative assets, then moved along the risk curve to government bonds, and now we're discussing tokenized stocks. In your Big Ideas 2026 report, you wrote that the global tokenized asset market could exceed $11 trillion by 2030. My question is, as these assets go on-chain, will they eventually end up in DeFi protocols? Where do you think value will primarily accumulate? Cathie Wood: We tend to agree with you. In the innovation field, there's often a divergence: purely new players act faster, more flexibly, and are more creative; traditional players embrace new technologies to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and improve productivity. Within the traditional camp, the most aggressive and visionary companies will use this to consolidate the traditional market. The best examples are Walmart and Amazon. During the dot-com bubble, everyone thought traditional retail would be destroyed, and indeed many boutiques were eliminated. But Walmart built its online business (acquiring Jet), thus consolidating traditional retail space. Amazon is a rapidly growing giant, but the two coexist. Now, Walmart is actually more aggressive than Amazon in drone delivery because it has better relationships with its partners and regulators. Amazon was several generations ahead of Walmart in drone technology, but some regulatory mistakes slowed it down. The same applies to the crypto world. Traditional players are embracing the technology. JP Morgan is particularly interesting; Jamie Dimon remains one of the biggest Bitcoin opponents in many respects, but he's letting his technical team and customer needs override his personal judgment. As for pure DeFi players, we're betting on Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid. We've bought some DATs (Digital Asset Tokens) for ETFs, including Bitmine Immersion and Soulmate from the Solana ecosystem. We know there's been too much DAT being created, and there will inevitably be a large-scale elimination. We publish our trades daily, and you can see we're gradually adding back to our positions while moving towards pure exposure to Ethereum and Solana within permissible limits. Some platform providers don't allow flagship funds to hold Bitcoin ETFs or Ethereum/Solana ETFs, so we can only operate within those restrictions. DeFi will experience explosive growth. The distribution of economic value between Layer 1 and Layer 2 is still in a game, and we are closely monitoring it. However, we remain bullish on the "Big Four," and with WBTC now available for migration to other platforms, Bitcoin is also included. "Benevolent Deflation" and the Current State of Macro Liquidity Robbie: People will say we heard Cathie say she's bullish in the long term. But we are in the midst of geopolitical turmoil. Stocks hit new highs yesterday, while Bitcoin is still hovering around $75,000. Raoul Pal tweeted that global liquidity is rising; what's your view on the lag of the crypto market relative to stocks and commodities? What is your assessment of macro liquidity? Cathie Wood: I wrote a letter at the beginning of the year with an asset class correlation matrix. Many people assume that because we call Bitcoin "digital gold," it is highly correlated with gold, but that's not the case. From 2019 (when institutional interest began to rise significantly) to now, the correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.14. However, looking at the past two cycles, gold started before Bitcoin, and we believe this time will be no different. Bitcoin has indeed experienced a significant pullback relative to gold, but along the long-term trend line, the lows are rising. The Bitcoin bull market remains intact. A 50% drop? Compared to previous drops of 85% or 95%, this is a victory. We believe Bitcoin will reach new highs in the next cycle. Many people don't believe it, but we've clearly stated in our public records that the baseline scenario for 2030 is $730,000, and the bull market scenario is $1.5 million. I've been criticized for saying that stablecoins have eroded some of Bitcoin's role. This has indeed happened in emerging markets, but people are ignoring the other side: gold is rising, indicating that Bitcoin's role as a store of value is simultaneously strengthening. The two effects offset each other, but the positive impact on gold is actually stronger. On-chain analysis shows the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. I don't think it will get there; just look at the current performance of Bitcoin and other assets. Regarding liquidity, many people are only focused on the news that the Fed is unwilling to cut rates, but the federal funds rate has already been lowered by 175 basis points. The market narrative says the Fed is too hawkish, but they are already easing. I think inflation will be significantly lower than expected. For example, Frito-Lay (a snack brand under PepsiCo) cut prices by 15% about three months ago and announced today that sales far exceeded expectations. That's how a low-inflation world works: price cuts for volume. This is even more true in the technology sector, where AI training costs are decreasing by 75% annually, and AI inference costs (such as the cost of ChatGPT answering a question) are decreasing by 85% to 95% annually. We will see a significant wave of benign deflation, with price reductions leading to a surge in sales, which is why we expect real GDP growth to accelerate. Data from Trueflation (an inflation indicator based on blockchain that tracks the prices of tens of thousands of goods in real time) shows that even including oil price fluctuations, the consumer price inflation rate is 1.8%, and the core inflation rate is only 1.3%. Over the past two or three years, various inflation indicators have fluctuated between 2% and 3%, and Trueflation data suggests these will all decline. If inflation does indeed decline, the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy. Another reason is that although the overall unemployment rate is low, looking at the breakdown, entry-level jobs are being impacted; companies are not laying off employees but also not hiring. The unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds is 8.5% (it peaked at 11%), indicating that there is room for easing in the labor market, wage growth is slowing, and productivity is accelerating. The Federal Reserve's rationale for easing is that the demand for money is rising relative to the supply, a result of accelerating real economic growth. The Federal Reserve's responsibility is to support real economic growth. Robbie: The new Fed Chair is about to take office, and recently someone discovered that his portfolio includes crypto funds. Are you generally bullish that the Fed will identify "benign deflation" and move towards easing? How much impact will this have on digital assets? Is the four-year cycle still in effect? Or could the Fed's dovish shift accelerate the market? Cathie Wood: It's worth watching the behavior of Bitcoin ETF holders. They've been quite resolute during this downturn. If you're an institutional investor just learning about this new asset class, and you've heard about the four-year cycle, and then you see Bitcoin drop 50%, as a traditional asset manager, this is a serious bear market, which is also an opportunity. We have indeed seen buying on dips. Weak hands exited, but were filled by institutions that are truly beginning to understand this asset class. As for whether the four-year cycle is in effect this time, I'm not sure. Because we experienced a flash crash, which triggered auto deleveraging. The cause was another round of tariff turmoil triggering a chain reaction. Binance experienced a software glitch, leading to automatic deleveraging. Those who thought they had hedged on two exchanges found their hedging completely ineffective, ultimately losing $28-30 billion. But we believe this has been washed away. Perhaps institutional intervention is accelerating the four-year cycle. But the bottom line is that we are in the process of bottoming out, and improved liquidity will drive the next big market move. Adding a more economic perspective: US money supply growth is currently at 4.9%, and nominal GDP is around 5%, basically in line. However, trade frictions may slow down the velocity of money, which will drag down the actual impact of money supply growth. This variable needs to be closely monitored in the coming months. Robbie: You mentioned that institutional holders haven't sold. At the same time, the Bitcoin block reward decreases with each halving, and its impact is getting smaller. We only have a few minutes left, but we can't ignore integration. It's a core topic you've been emphasizing. How do blockchain, cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets, and DeFi protocols integrate with broader disruptive technologies? Where are the intersections between blockchain and AI, and healthcare? Early on, everyone was excited about putting health records on-chain, but now the industry has become highly financialized. Is this direction still viable? Cathie Wood: You've heard of Agentic AI. In the future, we'll all have a bunch of chatbots doing our jobs. Our crypto team is a good example. We use Claude Co-work (Anthropic's desktop AI collaboration tool) for reporting. We produce a Bitcoin report and a DeFi report quarterly. The Bitcoin report is released today. We've reduced the time spent producing these long reports (with lots of charts) by 75%. And it's only going to get better. This freed-up productivity allows us to do deeper research instead of spending time on administrative tasks. Taking a step forward, we'll eventually have robots automate these reports. At that point, we'll need a payment system like Claude's, paying other companies' robots that provide the data. It's all machine-to-machine transactions, and what could be more suitable than an internet finance system (blockchain)? Eliminating intermediaries in traditional finance is the only way to truly unleash this productivity. The same applies to Agentic Commerce. I hate shopping, but in the future, I'll have an AI shopping agent that understands my style and will be trained by my personal shopping advisor, Lillian, but the payment process must be built on the blockchain. Changes are also happening in the healthcare field. In drug discovery and clinical trials, we're seeing labs without human involvement, relying on DeFi and blockchain technology for peer-to-peer collaboration. These are called Self-driving Labs, and they're becoming a trend. In the future, Agentic AI combined with a blockchain payment ecosystem will become mainstream. Robbie: Okay. Cathie, thank you for taking the time to talk to us today. We agree on many points, thank you so much. Have a great day and continue to spread your beliefs about innovation, digital assets, and convergence.