Silver Leaving Even SOX Behind
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Silver is experiencing a significant price surge, up approximately 17% since early May, as market conditions shift towards aggressive buying. Despite this momentum, positioning among money managers and CTAs remains low, indicating potential for further growth if speculators begin to engage. The volatility in silver is increasing, with a notable demand for upside options, suggesting that the market is beginning to recognize previously mispriced convexity. Adjustments in options strategies may be beneficial as the market evolves.
Nobody Owns Enough Silver
Silver continues behaving exactly like a market where upside convexity was massively underpriced. What initially looked like a quiet breakout has now started turning into a much more aggressive squeeze, with price, momentum, and volatility all accelerating at the same time.
The interesting part is that positioning still does not look remotely euphoric. Money managers remain relatively underexposed, CTA positioning still has room to expand aggressively, and upside option demand is starting to accelerate again as momentum keeps building.
Super silver
Silver continues exploding higher. On May 6 we argued silver was quietly setting up for another major breakout as positioning stayed light and momentum chasers remained absent.
Silver is up around 17% since then. We are well above the massive triangle formation as well as the 50 day. Note the 21 day is crossing the 50 day today.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Silver and SOX
In case you missed it last week: you still need silver to power the AI boom. The performance gap between silver and SOX has started narrowing again, even as semis continue surging higher.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Wake up
Things have really started heating up in silver over the past week, yet speculative positioning still remains surprisingly subdued. What happens if speculators finally wake up and start chasing?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Money managers
This cohort is running low silver exposure.
Source: DB
CTAs in silver
CTA silver exposure still remains surprisingly subdued. That could expand aggressively if momentum continues accelerating.
Source: DB
Silver volatility exploding
Silver volatility is playing out just as we outlined last week: "...precious metals tend to carry an upside skew. If silver starts squeezing again, volatility could reprice aggressively higher."
We haven't seen such a grab for silver upside options in a long time.
Source: LSEG Workspace
In the money
Our silver thesis was largely built around the idea that upside convexity was being badly mispriced. The sharp move higher, combined with the massive pickup in volatility, has caused the SLV June 72/82 call spread to explode in value.
The structure is now deep in the money, so rolling into higher strikes while booking some profits may make sense in order to keep maximizing convex upside exposure. The chart shows the SLV June 82/92 call spread as one possible way of adjusting strikes higher.
Convexity was badly mispriced. The market is starting to realize it.
