SG Morning Brief｜STI Near 5,700 Into Fed Decision, $100 Oil

Key Points

STI snapshot: The Straits Times Index closed Friday at 5,695.93, up 0.11%, as $DBS (D05.SG)$ (S$77.00), $OCBC (O39.SG)$ (S$31.60) and $UOB (U11.SG)$ (S$41.26) all finished higher near record highs.

Local macro: MAS's September survey raised 2026 GDP growth to 5%, and 45% of economists now expect an October tightening — a call oil near US$100 keeps pushing on.

US overnight: The S&P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,656.98 Friday, snapping a four-day losing streak; the Nasdaq added 1% and the Dow 1%.

The week ahead: The Fed is seen delivering its first hike since 2023 (to 3.75%-4.00%) Thursday 2:00am SGT; August retail sales land Wednesday 8:30pm SGT.

Singapore Open

The STI added 6.18 points to close Friday at 5,695.93, within sight of its early-August record around 5,713. The banks carried the tape: $DBS (D05.SG)$ at S$77.00 (+0.27%), $OCBC (O39.SG)$ at S$31.60 (+0.67%) and $UOB (U11.SG)$ at S$41.26 (+0.66%). Elsewhere, $Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG)$ was flat at S$6.66, $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ slipped 0.4% to S$4.50, and $Keppel (BN4.SG)$ eased 0.4% to S$11.43.

Friday's SGX session closed before the US CPI print and Wall Street's late rebound, so local shares have yet to digest the firmer US tone. But with US futures now lower and crude near US$100, the open faces a tug-of-war: a Fed hike keeps global rates elevated — a NIM tailwind for banks — even as an oil-driven inflation scare weighs on REITs and consumer names.

Singapore Macro

MAS's September survey of professional forecasters lifted 2026 GDP growth to 5% (from 3.5% in June), while trimming headline inflation to 2.1% and core inflation to 1.9%. Notably, 45% of respondents now expect MAS to tighten in October by steepening the S$NEER policy band, up from 30% previously.

The transmission for SGX readers: crude above US$100 feeds Singapore's imported energy costs, which MAS has flagged as an inflation risk. A firmer Singapore dollar would cap imported inflation but lift domestic funding costs — supportive for bank margins, a headwind for REITs. Energy-linked names like $Sembcorp Industries (U96.SG)$ (S$6.10 Friday) stay in focus either way.

Weekend Wrap

Three threads carry into today. First, the Fed: with the FOMC meeting Tuesday-Wednesday, a 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% is fully priced, and President Trump said Sunday the US "should have the lowest rates in the world," while the White House pledged "100%" support for whatever Fed Chair Kevin Warsh decides. Second, oil: Trump said the US had struck Iranian ships, floated staying in Iran as in Venezuela, and asked Ukraine to stop hitting Russian diesel infrastructure — keeping Brent near US$104. Third, AI: Elon Musk, OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei all urged a slower pace of AI development, as reports said Nvidia is weighing up to US$10 billion for Anthropic's IPO.

US Overnight (Friday Close)

Wall Street rebounded after a four-session slide. The S&P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,656.98, the Nasdaq Composite added 1% to 26,333.04, and the Dow rose about 1% (509 points) to 52,573.29. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.98% after August CPI printed 0.4% month-on-month (core 0.3%), cementing hike bets; University of Michigan sentiment fell to 47.8. The indexes still finished the week lower.

Key Movers

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ +1.75% — Apple closed at $332.27, the megacap leader Friday, after unveiling the iPhone 18 Pro line and its first foldable, the "iPhone Duo," as Tim Cook steps down after 15 years as CEO in favor of John Ternus.

$NuScale Power (SMR.US)$ -15.7% — the small-modular-reactor play tumbled to $8.61 on heavy volume as rate-hike jitters hit long-duration AI-power names.

$Nvidia (NVDA.US)$ — the chip giant was roughly flat at $218.29 Friday but has slid five straight sessions to a one-month low, pressured by the "slow down AI" chorus; analysts still average a $324 target versus downside risk toward $200.

Asia Pre-Market

US equity futures point lower Monday morning Singapore time: S&P 500 futures are off about 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 1.1%, with Nvidia indicated down roughly 1.4%. WTI holds near US$100 a barrel, Brent near US$104, gold around US$4,348 an ounce and Bitcoin near US$77,140. The read-through: a softer SGX open looks likely, with energy and rates back at the center of the tape.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Earnings: $Dave & Buster's (PLAY.US)$ reports Monday after the close (consensus EPS $0.18); $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ reports Tuesday after the close (EPS $0.89 on $2.08B revenue); $Lennar (LEN.US)$ reports Wednesday after the close (EPS $1.29 on $8.37B revenue).

Data: August retail sales land Wednesday 8:30pm SGT (8:30am ET); the FOMC decision and dot plot arrive Thursday 2:00am SGT (2:00pm ET Wednesday), with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30am SGT; industrial production and capacity utilization close the week Friday 9:15pm SGT (9:15am ET).

Earnings Spotlight — $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$: the China travel platform reports Q2 after Tuesday's US close. Consensus is $0.89 EPS on $2.08 billion revenue, with the street watching international outbound demand and whether US$100 jet fuel squeezes margins. The most Asia-relevant print of the week, it lands just before the Fed decision — a double catalyst for travel and China-linked names.

One More Thing

Separate what's priced from what isn't. A 25bp Fed hike is already in the tape; the real variable is the dot plot and Warsh's tone — "one-and-done" versus "more to come." For Singapore that maps to a simple split: if the Fed signals restraint, bank strength and SGD assets can keep grinding; if it hints at further hikes, expect the rotation to hit REITs and long-duration growth first. Watch the dot plot, not the headline rate.

Sources: MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters (September 2026); WSJ and Yahoo Finance market data; Reuters, CNBC and Barron's weekend coverage.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.