I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Uber expanded its Costco partnership to 47 states, testing delivery ambitions amid a recent stock pullback. Despite short-term declines, investors view UBER as undervalued, with fair value estimates around $116-$159 versus the current price of ~$69. The core debate centers on Uber's ability to capture economics in an autonomous vehicle future while maintaining profitability.
Uber Technologies (UBER) expanded its partnership with Costco, increasing Uber Eats access from 17 to 47 states and turning wholesale grocery delivery into a much larger test of Uber’s delivery ambitions.
For investors watching Uber Technologies through 2026, the Costco expansion lands at a time when the 30 day share price return is down 12% and the year to date share price return is down 16.3%, even though the 3 year total shareholder return is up 55.8%. This suggests longer term holders have still seen meaningful gains while recent momentum has cooled around big moves like the US$14.8b Delivery Hero offer and ongoing legal scrutiny.
See how Uber Technologies compares with other large platform operators expanding into grocery and bulk delivery using our curated list of 17 high quality undiscovered gems.
After a sharp pullback, Uber Technologies is being priced as if legal risk, big-ticket deals and grocery delivery expansion might not all pay off. Does that gap between share price and implied value still skew in favour of buyers?
Most Popular Narrative: 40% Undervalued
Uber Technologies closed at $69.36, while the most followed narrative on the stock, according to Ivoed, pegs fair value at $116. That gap frames the Costco expansion and recent share price pullback as part of a much larger debate about what this platform could be worth if the core thesis plays out.
The market is no longer debating whether Uber can become profitable. It is debating who owns the economics of transportation when the driver disappears.
That distinction matters because Uber is generating more cash than at any point in its history just as investors are becoming increasingly nervous that autonomous vehicles could disrupt the marketplace responsible for producing that cash.
See why 29 investors see Uber Technologies as 40% undervalued.
In that narrative, the key swing factor is who captures the value pool once human drivers are removed from the equation. Uber Technologies is framed as either the distribution layer that channels demand to autonomous fleets or a middleman that spends heavily on vehicles and partnerships while AV operators tighten their grip on margins.
The author values the business using an 8.38% discount rate and arrives at a fair value of $116 per share, which is well above the current quote. That is paired with the view that the stock is undervalued, with the Costco rollout, Delivery Hero bid and AV commitments all feeding into how much of the future transport profit pool Uber can hold on to.
On this logic, the recent 1 year total shareholder return decline of 29.2% and the 16.3% year to date slide are framed less as a verdict on the business and more as a pricing dispute over autonomous economics. The same narrative highlights that Uber has become profitable over the past 5 years and has grown earnings quickly over that span, even though earnings contracted 24.1% in the most recent year and net margins moved from 26.7% to 17.3%.
These mixed signals feed directly into the valuation debate. The Simply Wall St DCF output for Uber suggests a future cash flow value of $159.40 per share, and Uber is described as trading 56.5% below that estimate. The most popular story around the stock, anchored on a fair value of $116 with an 8.38% discount rate, lands in the same camp of the shares being below assessed worth even after factoring in execution, regulatory and AV risks.
For readers weighing the Costco partnership against those AV commitments and the current share price pullback, the central question is whether Uber can keep enough economics from a more capital-intensive model to justify the narrative valuation. **Result: Fair Value of $116 (UNDERVALUED)**
Still, the Uber Technologies story can shift quickly if autonomous partners keep more of the profit pool than expected, or if regulatory pushback raises costs and slows AV deployment.
Find out about the key risks to this Uber Technologies narrative.
Next Steps
Uber Technologies now has a mix of concerns and bright spots on the table, and the clock is ticking for you to weigh both sides. To see the full picture of what the market is worried about and what could still go right, take a close look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.