I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October fell to 16%, from about 43% a week earlier; the probability the US announces an end to its blockade of Iran slipped to 10% on $522K of 24h volume.
On Polymarket, the implied probability on the $2,500 strike of the "Ethereum price (October 5-11)" market is 30%, up 19 percentage points in 24 hours, on $62K of 24h volume, with the contract settling on October 12. A week earlier the reading stood at about 30%; it then fell back to near 11% before returning to 30% within 24 hours.
Elsewhere in Prediction Markets
US Supreme Court: On Polymarket, the implied probability on "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement before December 31?" is 19%, up 12.5 percentage points in 24 hours, on $51K of 24h volume, with settlement on January 1, 2027.
US CPI: Kalshi prices "CPI above 0.5%" at 49%, down 12 percentage points in 24 hours, on $67K of 24h volume, settling on October 14 — down from 61%.
Iran blockade: On Polymarket, the probability that the US announces an end to its blockade of Iran is 10%, down 3 percentage points in 24 hours, on $522K of 24h volume, settling on October 16.
Fed October meeting: On Polymarket, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October is 16%, down 3 percentage points in 24 hours, on $100K of 24h volume, settling on October 29, down from about 43% a week earlier.
Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.
Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.