cactusnix

$Alibaba(BABA.US)$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Human hallucinations are more severe than AI hallucinations.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$Alibaba(BABA.US)

When AI stocks collectively rose, I felt no sense of participation at all. For the AI application layer, due to continuously rising hardware costs, the bubble is actually being squeezed out, and at this moment, the sense of participation is full.

The shareholders' mood must be sad or angry. Psychological comfort is useless, so if you are bullish, you can continue to hold; if you are bearish, cut your losses in time.

Everyone is responsible for their own operations and should honestly face their inner feelings. If you are still bullish, then average down or lie flat according to your trading strategy. If you are not bullish, then just operate according to your own trading strategy. Continuous emotional output has no effect. Face your inner self, face the market, and face the company's basic factors. For those who do not hold Chinese concept stocks but tirelessly mock them every day, it's a bit obsessive. You can express your views, but pure emotional output is quite boring.

Personally, I am still bullish on the Xiaomi and Alibaba I hold. The market is unpredictable, and the trading strategy provides a safety net. What I value in Xiaomi is its integrated ecosystem, somewhat comparable to Apple, but its system ecosystem is still relatively poor, and profits are also low. From a shareholder's perspective, it's quite disappointing. From a consumer's perspective, the cost-performance ratio and experience are relatively balanced. In a way, it is indeed a consumer stock. At the same time, the 'traffic holy grail' is indeed backfiring, but this is caused by the current internet's pure traffic-oriented approach. Those repetitive negative comments keep appearing, partly because the company is a Chinese company. The factors are too complex, and I haven't seen a good solution, except for improving the ecosystem and product strength. What I value in Alibaba is its cloud service and AI niche. Cloud service can reduce some costs and thus increase profits through its own chips, but the entire AI application layer is still in an exploratory stage. Ultimately, humans will definitely harness multiple AIs to work together, efficiency will definitely improve, and labor costs will be reduced. Cloud services serve their own niche, serve enterprises, and serve small and medium-sized developers. Large enterprises will definitely build their own AI in the end due to privacy concerns. If they can provide some technical support solutions, they can also make some money. However, from a personal perspective, it's still mainly about serving the AI transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises' applications, and even more so for small and medium-sized developers. Even if the self-build cost is low, it still requires the high availability of the cloud ecosystem. Regarding the e-commerce part, I personally think the subsidy strategy is fine, but the investment is indeed too much, with a sense of unwillingness and pettiness. The increase in e-commerce entry points will definitely erode market share. The low-price strategy is not feasible. The wool comes from the sheep's back. In the end, either the product cost itself is low, or it is passed on to consumers, or it's product quality fraud. Instead of over-investing in subsidies, it's better to improve the shopping experience, enhance the synergy of your own ecosystem, and increase profits through other means. Based on all of the above, I decided to continue holding, with the trading strategy as a safety net.

This is a normal expression of my thoughts and feelings, with no emotional output, and does not constitute investment advice.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$Alibaba(BABA.US)

Carbon-based life ultimately lost to silicon-based life.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)

It fell ten points in three days; the market is just so unpredictable.

The most expensive thing is always having a choice.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Still bullish, continuing to average down.

This does not constitute investment advice, only a retrospective record.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

The entire Hong Kong stock market feels like the tone for this year has already been set.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Continue to add a bit more.

Not investment advice, only for retrospective record.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)

Adding to the position from before the New Year.

This does not constitute investment advice, only for record-keeping purposes.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)

Open a position and observe for a bit.

This does not constitute investment advice, it's just for record-keeping purposes.

In my personal opinion, AI currently still relies on stacking hardware to increase computing power, thereby improving model performance. The role of algorithms in this process is not yet very significant, after all, everyone is racing to develop, and stacking hardware is the fastest way.

But if this continues, when computing power and electricity become even bigger bottlenecks, there will be a renewed focus on algorithms and the energy efficiency of the hardware itself. Therefore, I believe and hope that one day AI will be like an operating system, easily deployable on ordinary hardware. At that time, there might also be various versions like AI, AI Pro, AI Ultra, etc. The AI operating system mentioned here is not a form like OpenClaw that still relies on a base operating system and large model capabilities at its core, but rather a fully localized AI operating system, which could even be said to be the brain of a robot.

I wonder if I'll live to see such a future.

$Intel(INTC.US)

Short a bit.

Not investment advice, just for record keeping.

Personally, I think this year the U.S. stock market is likely to be a year of correction. I've decided to hold a small amount of stocks and mainly use LEAPS for other options.

This is not investment advice, just a retrospective record.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

I have to admit, this was an extremely failed investment.

There's no panic in the current mood, more confusion and frustration, not understanding the reason for the nearly 20% plunge (originally estimated at -5%~-10%), and even more puzzled by the sudden pre-market expectation hike to facilitate selling, which felt like deception.

But winners are kings and losers are bandits; if an investment fails, you have to accept it. I don’t regret buying this stock in this operation, but I regret two things: first, my strategy at the end of 2025 was to stay in cash, but I wanted to try this stock; second, the additional buying violated my basic strategy, as the rise driven by OpenAI at that time emotionally influenced my buying.

A stock that has lost expectations and trust will need more time and more changes to reverse, and I don’t want to give my trust and time to this company anymore.

Of course, scenarios like a big player pulling a few strong bullish candles or a direct acquisition are beyond predictable considerations.

In summary, liquidate.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

Looking at the financial report and the trend after the report, if it still remains the same, then I admit defeat and sell. I still think there is no problem with the company itself, but the market tells me that my understanding is wrong, so I need to accept it.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

Is there a huge bomb? I can't understand this trend, it can't even stabilize.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

Update: PayPal has officially launched individual seller accounts.

Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MStyTjpUzNuZiHIiOp76FQ

PS: Just sharing the information

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

To the hell.

Never to the moon.

Painpal.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

Originally expected to start a steady rise in 2026, but now the expectation has fallen through, completely becoming PainPal. The safety line at the bottom seems to be disappearing, and $60 has become a distant hope.

The subsequent trend has already started to deviate from the predictable range, and the retrievable information is getting less and less. A stock's reversal heavily relies on future expectations—this is the power of the "pie." But the market has no expectations for it, no big "pie," not even technical updates, let alone product-level improvements.

As an ordinary retail investor, the short-term expectations might be Q4 earnings, a physical banking license, or the push for stablecoins. But in reality, the market seems to have already priced in these expectations. It's unclear whether the negatives have been priced in early or the positives have already been priced in. All we can do is wait and see. If the time cost increases further, consider adjusting positions or hedging with options, replacing the underlying stock.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

No reason, just have to accept the market's behavior.

$Paypal(PYPL.US)

It's too quiet here, no one cares, like a slow death.