爱吃羊肉的耗子

$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) Buy on dips, an opportunity to increase positions, until the pre-launch phase.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Instead of betting on a rebound, it's better to buy some Eli Lilly. The earnings are absolutely explosive, and a target price above 1200 is completely fine.

$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) Bullish, very bullish! Eli Lilly is about to take off! Conservatively, it could start in half a month, or more aggressively, it might be within the next few trading days! This wave could surge all the way to $1300 before any small pullback!

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Friends who want to buy Novo Nordisk should consider Eli Lilly!

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) I'll throw out a number first, 35, welcome everyone to share your numbers in the comments 😉

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) is cheap, a value investment, a once-in-a-century opportunity, hurry up and bottom-fish! Since you've all already bottom-fished, then I won't, leaving the chips for those who truly need them.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Just finished my research, sharing what I've learned. Here's a brief description.

First, the conclusion: Lilly absolutely crushes Novo Nordisk in every dimension.

1. Lilly is currently researching a triple-target weight loss drug, expected to submit for approval by the end of 2026 or early 2027. The trial data shows an average weight loss of a staggering 28.7%! Once it hits the market, it will be a game-changer!

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2. Market share: Lilly has over 60% market share in the US and is still rising. Novo has 39% in the US (and is declining). This is very normal. Tirzepatide's dual-target mechanism is far superior to semaglutide's single-target, whether in terms of side effects or weight loss, it's a comprehensive advantage! Moreover, the GLP-1 patents in India and China expire this year, and many generic drugs are already stocked up. So, they can only treat the US and Europe as the main battleground.

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3. Price: After the Inflation Reduction Act, the prices of Lilly and Novo are basically the same. In this case, why wouldn't people choose Lilly, which has better efficacy? The market share gap with Lilly will only widen in 2026! Also, starting from January 2026, prices in China have dropped to one-fifth of the original. With similar prices for Lilly and Novo, this situation will only lead to exponential growth for Lilly!

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4. Oral drugs: Lilly's oral drug was approved in April and has ample supply ready, just waiting for approval. In terms of efficacy, Lilly's small molecule oral drug has no dietary restrictions. Novo's is a peptide and must be taken on an empty stomach 30 minutes before, with water limited to 120ml. Head-to-head comparison (ACHIEVE-3 trial, T2D patients, 52 weeks): Lilly's orforglipron 36mg achieved 9.2% weight loss vs. Novo's oral semaglutide 14mg at 5.3% (Lilly's relative advantage is 73.6%). Furthermore, the production cost of Lilly's small molecule is extremely low, while Novo's peptide is relatively complex and has a higher production cost.

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5. Novo Nordisk's only remaining advantage compared to Lilly is a seemingly "cheap valuation" trap. Honestly, there are no other highlights.

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Summary: Investing really is about making money within your circle of competence. When I initially bought this company, I didn't understand it well, I just thought it had fallen a lot and was relatively safe. But after some simple research, I found it's completely reasonable that the stock price has fallen so much and hasn't recovered. The market is indeed never wrong. I want to ask everyone here, do you really understand the issues I mentioned above? And I've only scratched the surface of the entire weight loss market.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Have you noticed? Those voices from before saying Novo Nordisk was cheap, a good company, and undervalued have already disappeared from the comment section. If you truly like a company, you should be happy when its stock price gets cheaper and cheaper. So, in reality, people don't actually like this company that much; they bought it simply because it had fallen a lot, thinking the downside was limited and the upside potential was huge. In that case, don't talk about value investing, good companies, or undervaluation.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) This pre-market movement, combined with yesterday's large single-day put option order, definitely means something is up, and it's probably not small.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) There were so many single-day put option buy orders before yesterday's market close. It seems like some major negative news is going to come out tonight, and it's quite possible it could drop 5 points tonight. This stock definitely has front-running activities, it's happened several times already.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) is most likely grinding against the 225-day moving average right now. Once the 5-day, 30-day, 120-day, and 225-day moving averages become extremely tightly converged, it will most likely start rising. I don't even want to talk about it; it's just a matter of enduring. I've calculated that late April or May is roughly the convergence time point.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) From my current perspective, Novo Nordisk is my biggest investment failure. I can give you ten thousand reasons why it shouldn't be this way, but the market is never wrong. The stock's performance can't be described as bad; it's downright terrible. With so many quality companies to choose from in the U.S. market, I just had to pick you. It seems you only learn the hard way by stepping into one pit after another.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) I want to ask, aren't you really afraid of the oral drug that Eli Lilly is expected to get approved in March-April? Is buying now really value investing, or is it just because there are many bearish views, thinking there's a large safe rebound potential?

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)This time I see that no one in the discussion group is saying Novo Nordisk is cheap anymore😂 Some even say its valuation is expensive now. That's indeed the case, as a fundamental change has completely taken place.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) This stock currently has no institutional involvement and can be considered abandoned by capital. Retail investors hold over 80%, surpassing Tesla. Currently, trapped positions account for about 70%-90%, with an average cost of $75-83. The stock price decline is not due to heavy short selling but rather low liquidity combined with quantitative trading, resulting in larger fluctuations. The low-level consolidation is expected to persist for another half a year before the trend changes. Currently, it's experiencing a minor rebound in valuation recovery.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Is there anyone who didn't exit when it broke even again?

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Exciting, still the original formula😂

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Everyone should be happy because the long-awaited opportunity to add positions has come😂

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Now Novo Nordisk doesn't even play the half-time champagne game, they directly pull a scam on you, dropped 7 points on Tuesday, see you at 58, already used to it😂

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)

😂😂Buffett once said, "Even excellent companies may be worth selling due to valuation bubbles, industry changes, or opportunity costs." Here are major practical examples of Buffett's stock sales of "excellent companies":

😁😁Selling airline stocks (2020): At the beginning of the pandemic, Buffett completely liquidated all U.S. major airline stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway, including Southwest Airlines (widely regarded as a well-managed and operationally efficient "excellent company"), Delta, American, and United. The total value exceeded $4 billion. Reasons included the capital-intensive nature of the industry, low profit margins, pandemic-induced debt surges and equity dilution, and his judgment about the uncertainty of the airline industry's future, believing that "the world has changed." Although these companies (e.g., Southwest Airlines) had performed well historically, selling them avoided greater potential losses—airline stocks plummeted further in 2020. Although the stocks partially recovered later, Buffett's decision was seen as a timely stop-loss, avoiding continued holding in an uncertain environment.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)Come on, you'll be jailed if you come in

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)Charlie Munger has repeatedly pointed out in speeches and interviews:

Instead of spending time and energy buying cheap companies, it's better to invest in good businesses at reasonable prices.

If a company's growth is strong enough, even if the price is a bit high, it's still worth buying.

He influenced Buffett to shift from early "cigar-butt" investing (buying cheap companies) to purchasing high-quality businesses, even if the price wasn't the cheapest.

For example, in the early days of Berkshire, they climbed out of bad businesses and turned to buying good ones; Munger believed the real risk was quality risk, not price risk.

This reflects Munger's investment philosophy: good companies are more important than good prices, and in the long run, the compounding effect of excellent businesses far outweighs short-term bargains.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Charlie Munger said buy good companies, not cheap companies

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) is hopeless. The world's first oral weight-loss drug was approved, but the stock only rose a little, which shows how little the market thinks of Novo Nordisk. If it drags on until March-June 2026 when Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss drug is approved, NVO will be completely finished.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) is too weak, the market is never wrong. Last year it was neck and neck with Eli Lilly, one at 60 million and the other at 70 million, but now the difference is like heaven and earth. Cheap? Munger was absolutely right—buy good companies, not cheap companies.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)They say people really laugh when they're speechless, truly laughed at by the drop, from firmly bullish to having to accept the facts, completely convinced by the drop, impressive😂😂

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)This is the difference between biological and adopted children, still think it's cheap?