25号观察

From the initial "Dream Seeker," to the mid-term "Sea of Light/Whale," to the current "Pinmu/Hongqiao/Pudong"$PDD(PDD.US)  I think no one can resist complaining about Pinduoduo's new name "New Pinmu." I was really idle, so I went through a series of domestic and foreign entity company names established by Pinduoduo from 2014 to the present. Surprisingly, I found that one can clearly see a trajectory of Pinduoduo's development: from pragmatic entrepreneurship and sprinting for IPO, to determined overseas expansion and building a global empire, then to low-key concealment and risk isolation. These shifts in naming style are also a direct reflection of Pinduoduo's development stages and commercial considerations...

Among the criticisms of flash sales, there is an implicit assumption that is wrong: as if Alibaba could preserve profits and stock prices by not engaging in the fight.$Alibaba(BABA.US) really got hammered this week. Tencent dropped 7% after its earnings, and Alibaba also fell 7% after its results. To say it was far below expectations isn't really accurate. Tencent has already been on a massive hiring spree, restructuring, and giving out red packets via Yuanbao since early this year. Even without waiting for the earnings call, you knew it would inevitably increase AI investment. Alibaba's performance was also clearly explained in the Preview: e-commerce, instant retail, cloud services...

Tencent 4Q25 Review: The market no longer rewards stability alone, but is starting to ask what the AI story is? $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$ Tencent's earnings are of course stable, so stable that they match market expectations exactly, with no surprises. Fourth-quarter revenue was 194.4 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, adjusted operating profit was 69.5 billion, up 17%, advertising and gaming were not bad, even slightly strong. But the most important focus has long been not whether the earnings are good, but whether Tencent has transformed from a high-quality cash cow into an AI-revalued asset? So since you want an AI story, let me tell you...

Uploading... Add image description, no more than 50 words (optional) Plunged 25%, the market killed the valuation logic for Tencent Music for the next two years. $Tencent Music(TME.US)$Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$ Tencent Music's Q4 earnings report actually wasn't a bomb. Revenue exceeded expectations, profit margins held up, and other revenue like advertising and live performances within the online music business was even significantly stronger than market expectations. But a big bearish candlestick plunging 25% clearly indicates: what the market killed last night wasn't Q4 performance, but Tencent Music's valuation logic for the next two years...

$PDD(PDD.US) This is the first positive public statement from Pinduoduo since August 2024. Today is Pinduoduo's shareholders' meeting, and it is rare for the company to release information about the meeting. Although the content is not much, the information is sufficient. There are three main points: Zhao Jiazhen and Chen Lei serve as co-chairmen and co-CEOs, promoting Mr. Zhao; affirming Zhao Jiazhen's achievements since becoming co-CEO; and announcing TEMU's next three-year goal for the first time, which is to create another Pinduoduo. This is the first positive public statement from Pinduoduo since August 2024...

Pure war. $Alibaba(BABA.US) $JD.com(JD.US) $MEITUAN(03690.HK)  Meituan's earnings report was delayed. Q3 revenue was 95.5 billion, up 2%, with an operating loss of 19.8 billion, compared to a profit of 13.7 billion last year—a net swing of 33.5 billion. Core local commerce (food delivery + flash sales + in-store) revenue was 67.4 billion, down 2.8% YoY; loss of 14.1 billion, compared to a profit of 14.6 billion last year. Without the food delivery war, revenue growth this year would have been at least 10%...

Differences in data structures, algorithmic goals, and organizational methods. $PDD(PDD.US) $Alibaba(BABA.US) $JD.com(JD.US)  The incident started a few days ago when I bought a keyboard. Following my research habits, I searched for the same Logitech keyboard on Pinduoduo, Taobao, and JD.com apps and compared the prices. Then something strange happened—during subsequent usage, the recommendations in these three apps showed different results. Pinduoduo: displayed many related products...

Nothing new. 3Q25 revenue was 108.27 billion, up 9% year-on-year, compared to the 7% growth in the previous quarter, starting to climb out of the pit. Adjusted operating profit was 27 billion, up 1.2% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to the over 20% decline in the previous two quarters, with a margin of 25%, which has returned to normal levels. Adjusted net profit, due to 8.5 billion in interest, reached 31.4 billion, up 14% year-on-year. The deviation between revenue, operating profit, and my forecast was within 3%, so no surprises. The low base effect officially starts from the third quarter...

Price wars are everywhere, and they are not the end but a catalyst for business evolution.$PDD(PDD.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Wolf Energy Services Inc.(WOEN.US)  In the fall of 2009, a seemingly insignificant move shook the U.S. online retail market: Walmart Online reduced the pre-order price of ten popular new books to $10. Amazon and Target followed suit, with prices dropping in rounds: "10 → 9 → 8.99 → 8.98"...

Online bookstores, cloud services, Kindle, and the flywheel effect—none of these ideas originally came from Bezos. $Amazon(AMZN.US) $PDD(PDD.US) $Alibaba(BABA.US)  Recently, while researching Amazon, I was surprised to find that the origins of several of Amazon's core businesses—including its initial online bookstore, cloud services, Kindle, and even the famous flywheel effect—did not originally come from Bezos. However, Bezos' traits determined Amazon's success in these businesses: first, he was inherently capable enough...

A veteran entrepreneur with over 10 years of experience, after diving into the agricultural sector, disbanded his team and invested the funds into Pinduoduo stocks. — Series 2 of "Re-evaluating Pinduoduo's Agricultural Value"$PDD(PDD.US)   Mr. Z is the most unique Pinduoduo shareholder I know. Coming from the internet industry, he bought Pinduoduo stocks at the low point in mid-2022, when TEMU didn’t even exist, and has kept them until now. He doesn’t scrutinize financial reports, chase high-frequency data, or bother with valuation models—his confidence in Pinduoduo is...

Great seclusion lies in the city. $PDD(PDD.US) As everyone knows, Pinduoduo is an agricultural company. Unlike other e-commerce platforms, Pinduoduo's brand promotion has always focused on agricultural support projects such as Duoduo Farm, Cloud Farming, and Duoduo Specialty Products. The company's official website also repeatedly emphasizes: We are deeply rooted in agriculture and are the world's largest online retail platform for agricultural and sideline products. At Pinduoduo's quarterly earnings meetings, investors are concerned about AI deployment, user needs, business strategies, financial outlooks... But no matter what you ask, the management's answers always circle back to supporting agriculture. When agriculture is repeatedly mentioned...

At yesterday's 8th Catering Industry Conference, two sets of data revealed new industry trends: 75% of new takeout orders this year came from the low-price segment below 15 yuan, while dine-in average spending per customer nearly returned to 2015 levels. This isn't just numerical change - it signifies a fundamental reshaping of the catering industry's operational logic. $Alibaba(BABA.US) $JD.com(JD.US) $MEITUAN(03690.HK) 1. During this decade of consumption TS evolution, despite continuous rises in commodity prices, labor costs and rents, dine-in spending per customer has regressed to 2015 levels...

The United States is the core profit zone of Temu and the most important factor affecting its valuation.$PDD(PDD.US)  Temu's UK subsidiary disclosed its 2024 annual report two days ago, which included detailed income statements and balance sheets. Through this, we can get a glimpse of Temu's actual profitability. Temu's UK subsidiary is whaleco UK, registered in London, UK. whaleco UK is 100% controlled by Pinduoduo, and its financial statements are consolidated into the listed company. Income statement: Revenue of $63.27 million...