Regarding whether the market is being held hostage by sentiment:
In the short term, definitely yes. AI panic + macroeconomic data fluctuations make capital prone to seeking safe havens. However, in the long run, AI's enhancement of productivity is a real trend. It's just that the market has now overhyped the "expectations," making it prone to stampedes at the slightest disturbance.
Investment ranking (personal view):
1️⃣ Hardware (NVDA): Currently AI's "shovel seller," with the most certain performance. As long as capital expenditure continues, demand exists. But valuation is high, volatility is significant, suitable for swing trading or dollar-cost averaging.
2️⃣ Cloud computing (MSFT): Has both the hardware foundation (Azure) and the application layer (Office Copilot), with a wide moat and stronger resilience against downturns, suitable for stable allocation.
3️⃣ Software (CRM): Faces the greatest impact from AI. If it fails to transform successfully, it's easily disrupted, hence ranked last. But a significant drop may present a rebound opportunity.
