上山喝茶r

I don't want to chase after any China concept stocks anymore.

I've done multiple analyses, and Pinduoduo's fundamentals are excellent in themselves.

But policy risks are impossible to determine; as soon as tail risks are triggered, it's over, just like futu Longbridge the other day, and the education/training and gaming sectors in 2021. It's a long road with no hope in sight.

Targeted demolition by A4 paper isn't a one-time or two-time thing. How many times has reality taught us a lesson now?

Aren't US stocks, Korean stocks, the Nikkei, and gold good enough? Why go head-to-head with A4 paper?

Just venting a bit, but I must remember market discipline.

Q1 Reading 📖

Recommend this book

"Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital"

Spent some time using this cycle model and Claude to discuss AI technology

The stages of different sub-sectors

Such as large models/data centers/intelligent driving/biopharmaceuticals, etc.

Gained a deeper understanding of the cycle

When talking about the Turning Point

Claude sneaking in its own agenda was hilarious

Is it a lifelong rival of OpenAI?

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

$Amazon(AMZN.US)

$Fundrise Innovation Fund LLC(VCX.US)

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

I asked Claude if I could buy VCX, but it suggested I buy Google instead. LMAO🫣

It becomes very clear once you list out the proportions.

Today's fear index is 15.

When F&G is in extreme fear, historical patterns show two scenarios:

① Insufficient liquidity support → continued decline (2022 pattern); ② Oversold sentiment with decent capital conditions → rebound opportunity (late March 2020 pattern).

Current liquidity conditions: Tight in quantity but not a cliff, with RMP $10B/week still being injected, and SRF providing a floor. There's a slight divergence between sentiment and capital conditions—sentiment is extremely fearful, but the $3T reserve level hasn't seen the structural depletion seen at the end of QT in 2022 or 2018.

This divergence suggests that the extreme fear is more due to geopolitical (Hormuz) and stagflation narrative fears, rather than a depletion of liquidity itself. The structural conditions for an oversold rebound exist, but the trigger signal hasn't appeared yet.

The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Canada, and seven other countries issued a joint statement on the 19th, condemning Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

————

Iran has angered everyone.

Don't push your advantage too far; going too far is as bad as not going far enough.

At this current price, the valuation of tech stocks hasn't been brought down.

The prices of gold and silver have been pushed down.

It feels great to have cleared positions early and be holding cash.

This is the charm of studying macro liquidity.

Gradually building positions in gold and silver.

Claude's reasoning in the financial field is simply too clever

Below is part of the reasoning results

Compared to it, GeminiPRO3.1 is a bit clumsy

——————

Highest risk window: Today 3:00-4:00 PM ET (last 1 hour of trading)

Known pressures:

① FOMC hawkish expectations built-up positions need stop-loss

② GLD/SIVR deleveraging forced liquidation may continue

③ Massive options expiration triggers market maker Gamma rebalancing

Two possible extreme scenarios:

A) Pulse crash: Stop-loss triggered → market makers sell to hedge → SPY quickly probes below 650

B) Short squeeze rally: Short positions too heavy → market makers buy to hedge → SPY quickly rebounds to 660+

The current extreme panic with F&G=17 is often the breeding ground for a "short squeeze",

but technical anomalies like SOFR-EFFR=-2bps increase uncertainty

The dot plot shows 1 interest rate cut in 2026.

The median unchanged but the long-term rate raised from 3.0% to 3.1%.

It might be more difficult to cut rates in June.

The probability is higher in September.

Previously thought it should be 2 cuts; this speech is very hawkish.

The second half of the year is still far away, let's wait and see.

April's FOMC will be clearer.

The Iran situation should also be over.

Raising the long-term rate to 3.1% is bearish and puts pressure on gold and silver.

When the price is pushed down, it's an opportunity to find a good entry point.

CME data for April gold and May silver both indicate there will be significant volatility.

What creates the gap

isn't how much you make when the market is hot,

but not losing it back

at the critical turning point.

Patience, fewer mistakes, find the best pitch to hit.

Let's see at the end of the month if it will continue to drop.

Be patient when building a position.

Cleared out the silver position at 77 to avoid tail risk.

Currently 2/3 in cash.

1/3 in CRCL, a vertical call spread started around 70.

The spread is fully realized, deep in the money, but I can't close it.

Otherwise, I should be fully in cash right now.

It's best to resolve it within 40 to 70 days.

That means we need to see a consensus reached before the end of April.

Otherwise, the tail risk is a bit high.

Overall volatility will be very high next week.

The yen is approaching 160 again, which is also a risk point.

The BOJ definitely won't raise rates this time.

But they might intervene in the foreign exchange market.

There are too many bearish factors to count.

Compared the perspectives of Chinese media and English media on the Middle East. It feels like the pricing of oil and war risks seems a bit off.

Data basis

1. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 25% of global oil.

2. Over 85% of the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz has Asia as its final destination, with Europe and America accounting for a very low proportion, and the US accounting for less than 3%.

3. Asia accounts for a combined 86.4%, with China at 28.3% (the largest single buyer), India at 14.7%, and Japan and South Korea together accounting for over 20%.

Looking at it this way:

The US has its own oil supply and strategic reserves. With sufficient domestic oil supply, the impact on inflation doesn't seem as severe as media reports suggest. The short-term pricing in US stocks likely includes some inflation expectations and panic sentiment from war risks. The emotional reaction seems a bit overly panicked and intense.

Asia, which can't buy oil due to the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, is the actual party suffering losses.

It's reasonable to guess that rising unemployment will be the norm for a significant period in the future.

Inflation may appear to rise sharply in the short term, but oil is generally controllable within the US.

Compared to unemployment and inflation issues, unemployment will dominate in the second half of the year.

Among the two poor data points that the Fed is watching,

the worse one will be given more attention.

The path of interest rate cuts will likely be measured based on the worse employment data.

The frequent credit issues emerging during this period are actually due to adding too much leverage, causing problems in the capital chain.

After this portion of capital is cleared out, it should be a golden opportunity.

The bet is on the US's continued push for AI construction and the interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

Started to delve deeply into the history of oil from a hundred years ago

Reading the description of the Saudi King at that time is both funny and sad

As the leader and king of Saudi Arabia

He was a very poor monarch

His only sources of income were the annual salary paid by the British

And the offerings from Muslim pilgrims worldwide

The Sunni doctrine and culture also made the people xenophobic

Resulting in heavy resistance even when he wanted to progress

#TheOilEra

$Abrdn Silver ETF Trust(SIVR.US)

The March short squeeze is gone.

Checked the data on the official website.

March OI is down to 1585.

May OI is as high as 79105.

Contracts have been moved to May.

Not sure what the cost was.

According to the data, settlement pressure has decreased.

No wonder the silver price has fallen back.

The next important time point is the end of April.

Checked the registered inventory, only 88 million ounces.

If the inventory remains this low in May,

and there are currently 400 million ounces of contracts to be settled in May,

the conditions for a short squeeze are met.

Production increase achieved ☑️

An increase of 200,000 barrels per day is considered a moderate production hike.

It's also higher than expected.

The next thing to watch for is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Not sure how long it will take.

From the current war situation, Iran is indiscriminately attacking surrounding countries,

in a way that inflicts 800 casualties on the enemy while suffering 1000 themselves.

The Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

Iran's own oil can't get out either.

War costs money.

Their income relies on oil sales, and domestic politics are divided.

From this perspective, Iran can't hold out for much longer.

Continue to observe.

I've re-examined the battlefield situation.

April is absolutely a crucial turning point.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cannot last long.

Once a blitzkrieg turns into a war of attrition,

Donald Trump's chances in the midterm elections will decline.

If oil prices remain high in April,

the inflation hurdle won't be solved even by changing the Fed Chair.

The rate cut trade for the second half of the year will need to be repriced.

But I don't think it will be that bad.

The short-term surge in oil prices

can be countered by tapping into the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve,

or negotiating with countries like Saudi Arabia to exchange unlimited oil production for security guarantees.

The surging oil prices will be brought down.

The more troublesome issue is clearing the mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is controlled by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

This is news that requires close attention.

If the Middle East conflict doesn't spread,

oil prices can be brought down after a short-term surge.

The negative news during this period is an opportunity to pick up cheap chips.

Waiting for the rate cut trade in the second half of the year.

Before the midterm elections, Trump will definitely inject liquidity into the stock market.

Iran has further escalated the scale of the conflict.

Iran is indiscriminately attacking military facilities in Israel, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain.

Oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill.

There might be a gap-up opening on Monday.

Oil prices are set to rise.

Gold and silver are also set to rise.

I haven't paid attention to Middle East news for a while.

Instead, from the connections between major asset classes,

I detected changes in liquidity,

judged that we were entering a defensive state,

so I sold US stocks

and bought silver.

I've timed the recent moves quite well.

Continuing to test the logic.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

This round went from $150 to $330.

The decision to sell at $330 was made the day after the earnings report.

The earnings were very bright and excellent, with capital expenditures increasing.

Combined with the judgment of the macro situation,

the positive news has landed, and the narrative has new changes.

So, I'll withdraw the position first.

Switch to more explosive varieties.

I've analyzed before that February to April is what I consider the defensive period.

Allocating to gold and silver will be more comfortable than AI.

Watch the silver settlement in March first.

If Google returns to a suitable range below $300 in April,

I will switch the position back.

If it's very strong with no good pullback, it doesn't matter.

There are many opportunities this year.

Recently watching

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)

NVO has also returned to around 10x PE, with a dividend yield of 3.2%.

The board's latest share repurchase plan:

15 billion Danish kroner (approximately $2.4 billion).

After in-depth research, I found the company's problems aren't actually that big.

The current negative factors are more about technical and political suppression:

Denmark, Greenland, Donald Trump, Eli Lilly.

Sorting out these relationships will give a clearer answer.

It seems the return cycle might be longer for now.

But investing is a game for the patient.

Between short-term noise and long-term value,

find good entry and exit points.

The above is not investment advice, just a simple review of thinking logic.

$Abrdn Silver ETF Trust(SIVR.US)

New York registered inventory (88.1M oz)

Shanghai inventory is only about 1/4 of New York's

London inventory is okay but the Lease Rate of 8.2% is a bit high

After deducting the locked-up shares in trusts like SIVR, there's not much left to mobilize

Waiting for the big reckoning during the March settlement period

Feels like this situation repeats itself every so often