万山红

Now the market has adjusted, many people may still think it was brought down by SpaceX, but actually it's not. The real reason is still because the market is betting on interest rate hikes this year, and not just once.

The first step after Walsh's appointment, as it now appears, is to rebuild the credibility of the US dollar system. So, they need to shrink the balance sheet first before discussing interest rate cuts. Logically, with the strait opening up, the US dollar index should weaken further, but the timing just happened to coincide with his first speech, so the US dollar index strengthened further.

At the same time, the US is also suppressing the gold rally. The trader for the past few months should have been personally deployed by Besant. They must make capital flow back to the US dollar to ensure its hegemony.

So, this year, Trump is frantically drawing k-lines to create volatility in the stock market, hoping that the first choice for subsequent capital seeking refuge will still be the US dollar.

The Federal Reserve will likely find it difficult to cut rates this year, but the task for Walsh after taking office is that Trump wants him to cut rates. So, what he should do is first strengthen US dollar credibility (balance sheet reduction), and the second step must be to follow with rate cuts. It now looks like that will be next year.

But people aren't afraid. He still reiterated the theory of AI prosperity in the market, which is not contradictory to what he is doing now.

Micron's earnings report is approaching, coinciding with a critical moment of market reversal. Bet less, watch more. The market's demand for Micron is no longer just a single earnings report, but future long-term high-price contract orders.

Personal opinion, for reference only.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Intel(INTC.US)

Hello everyone, Micron's earnings report will be announced after market close on June 24th.

In the past week, over ten Wall Street firms have already raised their target prices, with the highest even reaching around $1500. The stock price has already surged to a new all-time high. The market is no longer debating how much money will be made this quarter, but rather:

Is Micron still a traditional cyclical stock?

According to company guidance, revenue for this quarter is approximately $33.5 billion, with a gross margin of about 81% and EPS around $19. Wall Street generally expects revenue to be between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion, and the market largely assumes this earnings report will be very strong.

But what we need to look at are two words:

Orders

Currently available information shows that Micron's HBM capacity for 2026 is already completely sold out, while also advancing multi-year strategic agreements with customers. The market is most focused on order status for 2027 and even 2028.

Why is this so important?

Because AI giants are still investing like crazy.

Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and the NVIDIA supply chain continue to expand AI data centers. Oracle's latest earnings report also raised capital expenditures again. AI infrastructure investment is still accelerating.

At the same time, DRAM and NAND prices continue to rise, HBM supply can't meet demand, and Micron's profitability has far exceeded the traditional memory cycle.

So for this earnings report, don't just focus on revenue and EPS.

Pay close attention to the news accompanying the report and whether management will reveal on the earnings call:

How much of the 2027 HBM capacity is locked in?

Are long-term contracts continuing to increase?

Are strategic orders for 3 to 5 years still fully booked?

Are HBM4 orders exceeding expectations?

If the answers to these questions are yes, then the market may further redefine Micron from a cyclical stock to an AI-beneficiary growth stock.

But if management starts to become cautious about 2027 orders, then the market will start to worry again:

Is 2026 the peak, or the beginning of an AI supercycle? The result goes without saying.

So for this earnings report, we're not looking at the past, but at future long-term orders. Post-earnings volatility might only allow the market to reprice after the earnings call.

Therefore, this earnings report will definitely see intense bullish and bearish battles. I'm optimistic that Micron can secure more long-term orders, but I still won't go all-in betting on the earnings report, regardless of whether it goes up or down.

Finally, as Micron's earnings report approaches, I think there's a high probability that Micron will ignore fluctuations related to US-Iran issues in intraday trading before the report.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Dell Tech(DELL.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

$Micron Tech(MU.US) can be entered below the moving average (around 1060). Those who want to average down or open a position can consider it.

Personal opinion, not investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.

Is Nvidia short of 20 billion?

This is actually not a good signal. Why announce it now, of all times? It's really something else.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Let me talk about my strategy for this week, for reference only. This week, I have only one goal, which is to keep buying Micron.

Why? Because it's about to release its earnings report. There will definitely be funds entering the market a few days before the earnings to speculate. As for how much it can be hyped, that's up to fate. I will sell at least half of my position before the earnings report next Wednesday. I don't gamble on earnings; I prefer to see the results directly before making a decision.

As for SpaceX, I personally sold it during the night market. I won't participate in trading this stock again in the short term. Its fundraising ability on the first day of listing was good, but after the hype, it often ends up in chaos. On Friday, it probably sucked about 20 billion from Micron. It's expected to remain a hot trade this week, but the valuation is too high, so I'm not very interested.

The above are my personal views, for your reference only.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Intel(INTC.US)

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) If it opens at 175, that would be beyond expectations. I really don't know if buying during the session can make money. I'll observe for an hour first. I don't know how crazy institutions and retail investors are. It's about to open, time to watch the market seriously.

Deep affection is not as good as long-term companionship. Personal advice on SpaceX: don't chase the price during the trading session. If you want to participate, remember one sure-win strategy: a market-on-close order, sell it during the night session, and you should be able to get about a 10% gain. This stock is a large-cap, I don't think it will have the same high gains as those volatile meme penny stocks.

$Intel(INTC.US)$Dell Tech(DELL.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)

I might really have to say goodbye. After the 12th, Longbridge won't allow placing orders anymore. According to my inquiry, it roughly means that if you want to buy in the next two years, you must be physically present in Hong Kong. Once you get to Hong Kong, find a KFC, connect to the WiFi, and you can place an order. For others, you can only place orders in advance and then sell them at an appropriate time.

It's still okay for us living in Shenzhen, but friends in other places basically can't operate. Currently, we can only go to other brokerages that haven't imposed restrictions yet. According to the summary of information, the ones that have been clearly restricted so far are Eddid, Longbridge, and Tiger Brokers. Others haven't been notified yet, and there might be notifications in the next few days.

At that time, based on the unrestricted ones, we'll transfer positions to the corresponding brokerages. Cherish the last two years and wish everyone prosperity and success.

We'll never encounter such a good communication platform community again. Finally, I hope everyone goes smoothly and achieves the good results they want.

$AMD(AMD.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Dell Tech(DELL.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) trend has turned bad. Those looking to add to positions, don't rush. Short-term traders, wait for it to V up before exiting. Those trapped in positions, don't panic, don't rush to add, it hasn't stabilized yet.

This is my portfolio. I only added to my position in SK Hynix today and didn't touch any other stocks.

Dell: Normal adjustment, still bullish afterwards, the uptrend in my view hasn't ended in the short term.

Micron: No action.

Himax: I've mentioned it before, bought at 6000, holding it like a lottery ticket (originally said I was bullish it would definitely hit thirty, but the volatility is too high, treating it like a scratch card).

Above, currently no bearish factors observed in the broader market. Actually, those who like Google can also watch for buying opportunities on dips. Next week's Oracle earnings report is also an opportunity. After Broadcom's earnings come out, I will refocus on Oracle stock in the short term.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Dell Tech(DELL.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Himax Tech(HIMX.US)

Brothers who followed me in buying Dell can appropriately reduce some of their positions tonight, especially if the positions are heavy. However, based on the current situation, I feel there should still be new highs in the next few days.

Micron, I'm not moving.

$Dell Tech(DELL.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

I. What exactly does ARM do?

Many people think ARM is a chip company, but that's not entirely correct. It doesn't manufacture chips itself; it only sells blueprints and technology licenses, somewhat like a real estate developer selling blueprints instead of building the houses.

ARM mainly sells:

1. CPU Architecture Licenses

For example:

Apple A-series chips

Apple M-series chips

Qualcomm Snapdragon

MediaTek Dimensity

Some of NVIDIA's AI chips

Amazon Graviton

Many of these chips are developed based on the ARM architecture (ARM sets the rules, and chip companies design their own CPUs according to those rules).

2. License Fees + Royalties

ARM's revenue model is very simple:

Step 1:

Sell design licenses.

Step 2:

Continue to take a cut after the client's chips are sold (a core and highly profitable revenue stream, taking a 1-2% commission per chip).

Therefore, ARM has an excellent business model: the more chips sold globally, the more money ARM makes.

ARM's strongest market is mobile.

Currently, globally:

Smartphones

Tablets

Smartwatches

Over 90% of processors are based on the ARM architecture.

It can be said:

The phone in your hand is very likely making money for ARM.

In recent years, ARM has also begun entering:

AI servers

Data centers

Automotive chips

Robotics

Edge computing

II. What is ARM's moat?

First layer: Ecosystem

Millions of developers worldwide are developing software within the ARM ecosystem.

Second layer: Customer lock-in

ARM's customers are almost all tech giants (Apple, Qualcomm, and the latest, NVIDIA).

These companies have invested heavily in developing ARM-based products and are unlikely to switch easily.

Third layer: Low-power advantage

ARM's biggest technical advantage is:

An excellent balance between performance and power consumption.

Phones chose ARM in the past because it saved power.

Now AI servers choose ARM also to save on electricity costs.

As global data center power costs rise, this advantage becomes increasingly significant.

Especially in the last two years:

AI server demand has grown rapidly.

Revenue growth related to data centers is significantly higher than traditional mobile business.

This is also the part the capital market is most focused on.

III. Why is the market so enamored with ARM?

Because the market has realized ARM's story is no longer just about mobile phone companies.

ARM's old logic was:

The more phones sold, the more money ARM makes.

Now it's become:

The more AI servers, the more money ARM makes.

And the future AI data center market could be larger than the mobile phone market.

So the market has started revaluing ARM.

Many institutions believe:

ARM has the potential to become one of the most important infrastructure companies in the AI era.

What institutions value most isn't its current revenue, but its future position.

ARM is somewhat like a "toll highway" in the chip industry.

It might not be the most profitable chip company, but it's likely one of the most stable revenue collectors.

III. Summary and Viewpoint

It can be said that subsequent self-developed AI chips, both domestic and international, will basically use ARM architecture design, such as previous ones from Xiaomi, Alibaba, and recent ones from ByteDance, etc. This news will further boost its stock price and institutional outlook for its future.

I think it will definitely rise significantly later, possibly even breaking 500, because NVIDIA's June chips are a collaboration with it.

The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Arm(ARM.US)$Dell Tech(DELL.US)

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) Looking at Dell's earnings report, in my personal opinion, given the current stock price, doubling is a conservative estimate, it must double. If you're afraid of heights now, then remember to set a market order at the close tonight and go all in. If you don't make money on Monday, I'll wash my hair upside down (haha, just kidding for fun, bros). Tonight, a 50% gain is expected to be on the low side, with extreme heat possibly reaching a 60% increase.

$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

$Arm(ARM.US) You're too awesome. I'll definitely spend a whole day this weekend studying your industry thoroughly. I wouldn't dare to invest without careful research, watching you rise all the way.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) is hot, the support is unbeatable, you can buy in batches. The areas around 910 and 900 are currently seen as strong support levels. I don't dare to go all-in now, I'll start with one-third. If it keeps falling tonight, I'll continue to add to my position.

I personally chose to liquidate my Micron position during its crazy surge in the night market, and I'll also liquidate SK Hynix at an opportune moment during the session. It's not that I'm not bullish, it's just too crazy. I think I need to cool down a bit. The money has been coming in too fast these past two days, and I need to quietly think about my next move. Wishing everyone continued prosperity.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Intel(INTC.US)

I'm considering a problem. I sold what I bought after hours. Should I clear my position and leave now? I'm a bit conflicted.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

I don't have any good ideas right now. All I know is that I can still hold on, just like I've been saying since Micron was at 800: not selling a single share, helping Micron reach one trillion. During this period, I truly didn't sell a single share; instead, I kept adding to my position along the way.

As for whether the brothers can hold on, I don't know. I don't have any good advice either, because in my understanding, the memory sector's expectations for this year aren't over yet. That's why I called for 800 when the stock price was still 300 at the beginning of the year.

But now that it has really reached 800, it feels like a dream (too fast). After selling too early many times, the lesson is: no matter if it goes up or down, don't sell a single share. Since I'm not using leverage anyway, I'll just tough it out.

Let me edit and explain why everyone now knows SanDisk can't compete with Micron. I already told the brothers in the comments before, and I'll say it again here. The main reason was the initial worry that HBM could only be sold this year, that capacity and actual revenue were exaggerated, and whether the demand was as crazy as they said? The earnings reports from every major tech company have been the best response.

Finally, I'll say one thing to myself: if you can't hold on, go work in a factory tightening screws.

Wishing the brothers who have persisted all along get what they wish for. When you're making money, leaving at any time is the right move. Just do it according to your own expectations.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) I even sold this one too early, sigh, still misjudged it.

The domestic authorities are eyeing regulation with envy. I believe everyone has already seen the news. Don't panic. Even if it's implemented, it will take time. It won't be sorted out and enforced that quickly.

But what I want to say is, those holding heavy positions in stocks should escape quickly, be careful of a Chinese concept stock explosion.

$AMD(AMD.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

IBM, strongly recommend buying, target price: 300!

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$AMD(AMD.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) This data + buyback + guidance still can't satisfy Wall Street's appetite, I can only say: so greedy!

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

Hold on, I'm holding on too. Brothers who can't hold on should just not watch the market. I haven't heard any rumors of industry headwinds. The recent pullback over the past few days is normal. NVIDIA's earnings report is about to be released, so we have to hold on for these days. As long as you don't use leverage, there's no need to panic. I've already topped up my position to the max anyway, and now I'm just waiting for time to pass.

Brothers who are short recently can actually start positioning for World Cup-related plays. This edition is being held in the US, so there's bound to be a wave of speculation. You can look at some betting companies and the like.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)

$Cerebras(CBRS.US) I liquidated this position during the night market. It still feels too weak and lacks cost-effectiveness. I'll take another look later.

$Cerebras(CBRS.US) Based on my feeling, this stock is a bit weaker than expected, lacking the momentum of a big rally over a few days. I don't recommend playing with a large position. Watch the intraday reaction tonight. If it doesn't break the previous high, just clear the position and leave, don't participate. I feel the IPO pricing was probably too high, exhausting the upside potential. Otherwise, the after-hours price shouldn't be this low. Keep an eye on the pre-market action tonight.