A清风$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) breaking 30 is 100% certain, don't hold any illusions, the short interest is as high as 40%! Don't listen to others saying there are no shares to borrow for shorting, and don't listen to others talking about long-term value investing; that's just helpless self-comfort after being trapped. Besides, it's not their money that's being lost. You must have the discipline to set stop-loss orders! Wishing everyone well～
XIAOMI-W
HK01810
$Sandisk(SNDK.US) I haven't really participated in trading this stock, but I've been watching it. I found that most people got in around 1000, made some money, got hooked, and then went all in with heavy positions around 1500, using margin and heavy leverage. A large portion of these traders were using unrealized gains to add to their positions. Very few, almost none, actually held from the bottom and cashed out at over 2000.
Since entering July, the Korean memory sector showed signs of weakness first. Then Meta announced it would rent out idle computing power. Combined with institutions and leveraged positions taking profits, a large-scale decline occurred. In the past two days, many friends have seen their profits massively evaporate and their principal cut in half.
Finally, a bit of insight: Sometimes the rise and fall of a stock has nothing to do with the company or its products. It's about sector rotation. Where the money flows, that's where the rise happens.
Sandisk
USSNDK
$Sandisk(SNDK.US) 1200 to be friends?
Sandisk
USSNDK
$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) Don't want to buy China concept stocks anymore, want to stand in the light, wonder if we can be friends at 120?
SK Hynix
USSKHY
The comment section is so lively...
$Sandisk(SNDK.US) From the perspective of a bystander who never participated, let me say a few words: storage has risen too much in the past six months, it wouldn't be an exaggeration for it to fall a few hundred more points. Within the grand narrative, it seems the expected returns for the next year have already been overdrawn. AI is great, but so far, there haven't been any major results. No major results, no major returns.
After Tesla spun off its rocket and Starlink businesses, it's also on a downward trend now. I read the news saying they've even converted factories to produce robots. If it mainly relies on cars, $300, in my view, is already high.
SpaceX is about to break its issue price soon. Although the reusable value is high, so far, no other greater value has been seen. As for Elon talking about going to the moon and Mars immigration, I still think it's overly mythologized. Even if they really get there, no value can be seen in the short term. It's not bad to treat it as a kind of faith, at least this goal can't be achieved in the next few years or even over a decade.
Marvell soared because of a single sentence from Jensen Huang. I think it can rise, but the possibility of hype is greater. Executives are continuously cashing out. The stock price will come down the same way it went up.
SK Hynix, Micron, same logic as SanDisk.
The above are all good companies, but they all share a common point: big bubbles, big valuations.
One last thing: capital might flow back to Hong Kong stocks. This wave of Xiaomi might really take off.
$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) I thought of a big shot who appeared briefly. His catchphrase was: 'The original me, wahaha,' giving off a vibe of being rich and willful, not caring at all, with daily wins or losses in the millions. His asset size is in the top 1% tier. How is he doing now?
Marvell Tech
USMRVL
$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)Storage market crash, U.S. stock bear market, capital return, Hong Kong stocks warming up, Xiaomi is about to rise
XL2CSOPHYNIX
HK07709
$Sandisk(SNDK.US) From the perspective of a bystander who never participated, let me say a few words: storage has risen too much in the past six months, it wouldn't be an exaggeration for it to fall a few hundred more points. Within the grand narrative, it seems the expected returns for the next year have already been overdrawn. AI is great, but so far, there haven't been any major results. No major results, no major returns.
After Tesla spun off its rocket and Starlink businesses, it's also on a downward trend now. I read the news saying they've even converted factories to produce robots. If it mainly relies on cars, $300, in my view, is already high.
SpaceX is about to break its issue price soon. Although the reusable value is high, so far, no other greater value has been seen. As for Elon talking about going to the moon and Mars immigration, I still think it's overly mythologized. Even if they really get there, no value can be seen in the short term. It's not bad to treat it as a kind of faith, at least this goal can't be achieved in the next few years or even over a decade.
Marvell soared because of a single sentence from Jensen Huang. I think it can rise, but the possibility of hype is greater. Executives are continuously cashing out. The stock price will come down the same way it went up.
SK Hynix, Micron, same logic as SanDisk.
The above are all good companies, but they all share a common point: big bubbles, big valuations.
One last thing: capital might flow back to Hong Kong stocks. This wave of Xiaomi might really take off.
Sandisk
USSNDK
$SERES(09927.HK) always comparing to Xiaomi, what do you have to compare with Xiaomi? Answer me.
SERES
HK09927
$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) One game, one dream...
Marvell Tech
USMRVL
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) What happened? Did the Hong Kong market rise while the West fell?
Invesco QQQ Trust
USQQQ
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) Lei Zi hasn't been live streaming or holding press conferences lately. Several major storage giants have started to pull back, and capital is beginning to flow back. That's a good thing.
XIAOMI-W
HK01810
$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Damn, a stampede has started, everyone's fleeing like crazy.
XL2CSOPHYNIX
HK07709
It rises, it falls, it falls, it rises. If these giants can fall sharply for a few months, and Hong Kong stock market funds flow back a bit, Xiaomi might actually be able to rise. At the very least, the smartphone business will no longer be under pressure, but it seems like these giants don't have a reason to keep falling. Let's wait and see!
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) is a good stock, and the project is also a good project, but unfortunately the market cap is too high. The current revenue is not yet confirmed, and doubling is almost very difficult. The possibility of halving is greater than the possibility of doubling. Currently, it's seen around $100.
SpaceX
USSPCX
It's been a month. Looking back, all the initial predictions have come true. If Lei Zi still uses speed as an advantage for marketing, a stock price of 15 is already too high.
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) To be honest, the new generation SU7 and 7GT are both good cars, but Lei Zi (Lei Jun) has taken the wrong path. He's single-mindedly and relentlessly pursuing speed, extreme speed, strong drifting capability, and the highest motor RPM. Given our domestic public opinion environment and national conditions, they don't support this kind of drifting speed. The general public doesn't have much drifting culture or motorsport. The state demands stability and safety; it's even okay if you're slower, just don't cause public opinion issues or accidents. What the common people want is range, technology, price, and safety. Honestly, with a 100,000+ yuan Leapmotor, BYD, or Geely, if you floor the accelerator, your head will spin. Electric vehicles are never short on speed. Being two seconds faster or slower really isn't that important. Maybe he wants to use speed to break into the German market? Sometimes I even feel that Mi's (Xiaomi's) tech and autonomous driving results might not necessarily beat XPeng! Lei Zi should focus on original design, range, tech luxury, and those aspects. In short, I hope the car sells well and boosts the stock price!
It's been over a month, and the comment section has become much more harmonious. There are fewer and fewer people stubbornly holding on. Some friends are still like they're in a dream, constantly shouting about "Human-Vehicle-Home." I just don't get it, what's so advanced about "Human-Vehicle-Home"? Can't other phones do it? Or do some people like controlling home appliances from their cars? Many people are trapped by their own limited perspective and understanding, thinking this is some profound, high-tech magic. In the eyes of some leading tech companies, this is just child's play. It's like you grew up in a rural village and have never been to a city, so when you see a city, you think it's the most prosperous place. But for locals in Shanghai or people who travel abroad regularly, it's already commonplace, even a bit trivial.
Many people think relying on this "Human-Vehicle-Home" model can attract a lot of people to use Mi Home products, and then boost Mi's stock price. Isn't that just a joke? Some other friends pin their hopes on automotive exports. Let me ask you, with foreign tariffs, legal sanctions, and sparse populations, how many units can you really export? The quotas they give are tiny, just tens of thousands a year at most.
As for news about "scalpers" making a killing, just take it with a grain of salt. Also, foreign communities are very averse to imitation. That means your kind of beautiful vision only exists in your imagination, like a flower in a mirror or the moon in the water.
Current storage order backlogs are scheduled until 2028. Hoping to break through with phones seems hopeless now.
So, is it game over? I don't think so. There's still a turning point. But this turning point doesn't rely on revenue. Personally, I think for Mi's stock to recover, it depends on the continued appreciation of the US dollar, a subsequent correction in the US stock market, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
Let's wait and see.
Many people have increased their returns from 1% to 90%... that's really impressive...
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) has triggered a stampede, with massive and frantic selling...
XIAOMI-W
HK01810
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) Mi fans, hold on a bit longer, take a loan to add to your position! Lower your cost basis. It's estimated to fall another 20%, it'll be there soon, you absolutely must not cut your losses!
$Xiaomi Corporation(XIACY.US)After falling below HKD 30, I personally think: there's a high probability it will continue falling to 28, then rebound to 31, giving retail investors hope and luring them to buy in large quantities, before dropping again to 27. Combined with what's likely to be a very poor Q1 earnings report, it could directly break through the 25 support line. At that point, most people will be devastated, selling frantically, causing a stampede, leading to a prolonged decline to around HKD 20, forming a 'grandma going down the stairs' pattern... If smartphone and car sales remain sluggish and storage prices keep rising, breaking 20 is just a matter of time. As for the real bottom, many say 8, which is a joke, but 15-18 is still possible. So, cherish the chips in hand. (Personal opinion, hope I'm wrong)