CP

$50B + 86% margins sounds perfect on paper, which is exactly why I’m cautious. When guidance gets this good, expectations get impossible. If PCE or Fed speakers spook the market Thursday night, Micron gets sold with everything else. I’m taking chips off and waiting for the “too perfect” reaction.

Look, Micron’s been front-running earnings for days and now Fed talk + Iran headlines could steal the show. If guidance isn’t a massive beat, I’m expecting algos to sell first, ask later. I’m taking some off the table and waiting for the overreaction before jumping back in.

Micron hitting $1200 pre-earnings with ±12% options move screams “buy rumor, sell news”. HBM tightness through 2026 is priced in. If guidance isn’t a blowout, algos will flush it fast. I’m fading the rip and waiting for sub-$1000 to reload.

Marvell S&P 500 inclusion + Micron HBM sold out headlines feel like peak hype to me. By 2026 supply catches up, capex gets scrutinized, and multiples compress. I’m fading this momentum into Micron’s prints - buy the rumor, sell the news.