CP

Micron bounced Friday as Jensen Huang downplayed memory glut is dead cat - after WDC +55% fell 6% and Lam beat fell twice as hard, even Jensen can’t save memory trade, sell into strength before Fed and Big Tech earnings with Tesla Meta opposite AI spend. At home REITs held their gains is real bull - Singapore decouples, MAS surprise hold plus banks easing back after Wednesday gains means REITs lead STI higher while US tech chops.

WDC +55% revenue and dividend raise falling 6% and Lam beating and falling 12% is classic shakeout before rip - same as eight straight days down record run when shorts made $32B, now longs win. US semis bottom. At home banks slip while REITs bounce is bearish - after banks easing back after Wednesday’s gains, slip proves early bounce faded again like after 5% STI slide, DBS UOB OCBC rolling over.

Tesla and Meta same night opposite AI budget calls confirms bear - one cutting one raising after hot CPI PPI and two banks changing rate calls to hike means capex confusion, same as OpenAI $20B miss and chip rout 8 days record. At home banks easing back after Wednesday’s gains is fade confirmed, STI slipping pattern back and bank split returns, early bounce faded again.

SpaceX profitable and Tesla merger talk is headline noise - merger won’t pass, profitability one quarter after years of losses doesn’t justify rerating after AT&T T-Mobile crash. US chops. At home STI up and banks leading is clear bull - after hot CPI PPI and two banks changing rate calls, MAS holding plus September exports double forecast finally kicks in, DBS leads STI.

The chip rout that defined last week ended Monday but Asia not buying it is healthy - US shorts $32B profit take while Asia waits for earnings, chip chop sideways not crash. At home STI slipping is divergence buy - September exports double forecast plus MAS surprise hold means Singapore decouples, DBS OCBC UOB catch bid after 5% STI slide last week.

Chip stocks down eighth straight day longest run on record and $32B short profit shows shorts are right - PPI 1 point above forecast, hot CPI, Oct hike odds doubled, 5.35% 10Y kills sems. At home banks have split is bearish divergence - after early bounce faded and MAS surprise hold, split means foreign selling OCBC UOB while propping DBS, STI breaks lower.

PPI full point above forecast plus two big banks changing rate calls after CPI beat kills risk - doubling of Oct hike odds yesterday was right, this is stagflation repeat. US sells off like $108B memory crash. At home September exports double forecast won’t matter, STI down 1% yesterday already fading and bank bounce faded again, export beat is priced.

Hot September CPI with Oct hike odds doubling in an hour confirms worst case - three Fed officials warned about another hike and were right. 5.35% 10Y goes to 5.75% now. At home STI down about a percent is just start after early bank bounce faded, DBS OCBC UOB break down again as yields crush S-REITs and property.

Three Fed officials backing another hike same day before tonight’s CPI is worst timing - memory $108B selloff and telco repricing show economy cracking, hike now = policy error. At home MAS surprise hold when analysts expected hike is neutral - MAS just buying time, STI banks will chop sideways after 5% slide until Fed direction clear.

Micron SanDisk SK Hynix shedding $108B between them Monday on news Chinese rival closing gap shows memory supercycle is over - YMTC playbook repeat. At home early bank bounce fading is healthy consolidation after OCBC -10% washout last week, 6% yield on DBS/UOB/OCBC will hold STI while US tech bleeds.

AT&T -9.8% and T-Mobile -13% after SpaceX $8B nationwide spectrum buy is market missing point - Starlink still needs ground game and $40B debt for Nvidia chips. US telco fear is overdone. At home, banks bouncing after last week’s STI -5% selloff is real - NIM holds at 5%+ yields, 6% div yield is floor.

OpenAI $20B revenue miss per FT is serious and AI chain Oracle -5.5% CoreWeave -7.8% Nvidia -2.9% proves multiple compression has started. STI -3.5% Thursday with banks -4% to -5% shows Singapore not immune. US AI bubble deflating will drag risk globally, don’t bottom fish yet.

Rates at 5.35% on US 10Y is the real killer, OCBC -10% on Citi sell call is just excuse with DBS and UOB sliding with it. But this is rates-driven de-risk, not SG bank specific - NIM actually expands at 5.35% and asset quality still solid. Buy fear when yields top.