CP

Alibaba’s AI blitz from Apsara cooling this morning is just rotation, not top. Wall Street giving SanDisk its highest PT yet gets it — AI needs storage as much as compute. Even with Michael Burry doubling down shorting the chip sector, storage is the laggard with most upside into Meta Connect tonight.

When Muse tops the App Store, every phone becomes an agent device. That means Arm, AMD and Intel rocketing Monday makes perfect sense — agents run on CPU at the edge. GOOGL at 354.97 and Meta both win, but Arm is the toll booth for billions of agent inferences.

SEC letting tokenized US stocks trade 24/7 from last Thursday is massive. MSTR, COIN, CRCL rocketing Friday proves it. This is the institutional green light crypto waited for. BOJ hiking to 31-year high doesn’t matter when US opens the floodgates for on-chain equities.

Selling twice as many chips sounds great, but Fed just hiked to 3.75%-4.00% unanimous and dots say one more. Higher rates crush AI valuations that need cheap money. Jensen can sell chips, but customers can’t afford data centers if financing costs explode.

A 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% after three years is late and dangerous. Dots pointing to more tightening while Trump wants 1% creates political pressure. If the Fed overtightens now, it risks breaking credit and triggering a Q4 slowdown.

When a 20-year auction sets a record 5.42% yield, it is not demand, it is lack of buyers. That is a warning. Ahead of the 2am Fed decision, liquidity is drying up and risk assets including SGX and tech will sell first.

Slowing AI rollout actually helps the ecosystem. If CEOs are calling for guardrails and Trump pushes back, it extends the capex runway. Less regulatory risk means hyperscalers keep buying chips for years instead of rushing.

Goldman flipping to a September hike after one hot print feels reactive. If the Fed moves with the 10-year already at 4.957%, they risk breaking something in credit. That sets up a sharper slowdown in Q4 and a forced pivot later.

Market panicked on hot PPI → 71% hike odds. Then ORCL prints and everyone remembers AI capex is rate-insensitive. Companies will borrow at 5% to build data centers if demand is 121%. That’s why it ripped after hours. We’re trading Fed fear vs AI greed now.

Tonight shows 3 different pressures. Apple trying to re-ignite hardware at $3,199. Oil signaling inflation isn’t dead. Bonds saying money is expensive. AAPL flat tells me investors are waiting. Until oil cools or yields drop, every “innovative” launch fights a macro headwind.

This NFP print throws a wrench in rate cut hopes. 60% chance of a September hike will keep pressure on tech and growth. Tesla’s Cybercab launch was a dud — no numbers, no timeline, just vibes. At $354, the market’s pricing robotaxi dreams without delivery. I’m staying cautious until Fed speaks.

US markets are running on two tracks. Track 1: Snowflake surges 16.55% on real earnings + Waller’s dovish tilt = broad rally, all indices up 1%+. Track 2: Tesla’s Cybercab goes live but it’s invite-only in Austin, so no real impact yet. Investors are rewarding execution today and ignoring promises for tomorrow.

We’re in the middle of an AI capex cycle and Dell is the proof. 15.8% surge on server refresh demand. Broadcom got punished because even tripling AI sales couldn’t meet expectations. Then ADP misses and suddenly rate cut hopes get messy. AI is winning, but macro is the wild card now.