纳斯达克小作手进行录

$Microsoft(MSFT.US), there's a kind of fate that is Microsoft's surge and then pullback.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$IBM(IBM.US)$Oracle(ORCL.US)

Today's situation with IBM confirms a long-standing fear: the software-hardware seesaw is a real dynamic. Corporate budgets are truly being consumed by semiconductors, memory, and storage, leading to revenue issues for software companies.

However, I still think Microsoft is purely a victim of the 'software stock' label. Personally, I remain relatively confident in Microsoft, but for other software stocks, one indeed needs to be extremely cautious.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)The show has 15 minutes left.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)Based on my rudimentary technical analysis skills

That big bullish candlestick from the day before yesterday should be a high-confidence bottom signal, right?

Such huge trading volume just to mess with me?

The two oldest geezers in the world

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Recently, I've been reflecting on how I've fallen into the trap of value investing.

Buffett/Munger have two famous viewpoints. If retail investors truly believe them, that's just foolish.

1. We never study the Fed's moves, focusing instead on researching good companies that can weather interest rate hike and cut cycles.

The reality is Buffett might genuinely not need to study it; Fed voting members might communicate directly with Berkshire. Think about how Buffett stepped in to rescue the market during the 2008 financial crisis.

2. K-line technical analysis isn't important; using K-lines to predict the future is like astrology.

The reality is Berkshire's current analytical tools for the stock market definitely do not lack technical analysis.

At least for retail investors, wanting to bottom-fish or chase a high price for a company they're bullish on, technical analysis is very useful. It might hold you back and save your life when you're about to bottom-fish a bottomless pit.

These viewpoints Buffett talks about are like Chinese entrepreneurs recounting their entrepreneurial journey, only talking about how they struggled and worked hard, while omitting the most crucial information like collusion between officials and businessmen.

$TENCENT(00700.HK)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$BABA-W(09988.HK)

This year, the experience of holding the "Magnificent Seven" has been almost as bad as a bear market. 😅

I bought a lot of Microsoft, but also bought a lot of NVIDIA as a hardware hedge due to concerns about software risks. It turns out NVIDIA is the Microsoft of the semiconductor industry—no matter how much the sector rises, it just keeps falling. I'm really speechless.

I truly didn't understand the storage logic in advance. My sin is deep, and the retribution has come. 😑

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$Meta Platforms(META.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$Apple(AAPL.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) The last time it fell like this, I wasn't even born yet.

This month's performance of Microsoft can even be said to be the most abnormal and exaggerated one in its nearly fifty-year history of being listed.

I feel like I've been in a nightmare that I haven't woken up from for a month...

Microsoft had its biggest monthly drop in 25 years, yet the backdrop wasn't a financial crisis, an index crash, or any severe internal negative news. It seems it was just a repeatedly hyped narrative, and at least the last 12 quarterly reports haven't been able to prove the bears' narrative, which likely doesn't hold water.

Tencent has also reached its lowest or second-lowest valuation multiple since listing (the last time was at the end of the pandemic, when revenue and profit outlooks were lowered, but now it at least maintains low to mid-single-digit growth). Of course, this is partly due to the macro headwinds facing China concept stocks. However, the current macro headwinds are still not as severe as in '22. The decline in retail consumption likely has a very limited impact on Tencent, making it the one among China concept stocks that can best stand alone.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$TENCENT(00700.HK)

After some thought, the only hope for Chinese concept stocks at this stage really seems to be the "A4 paper" (referring to policy documents).

It's almost right before September 24th, and the consumption data is the worst since the reform and opening-up. If no policy is introduced even now, it gives the feeling that they are preparing for war and famine.

$TENCENT(00700.HK)$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$PDD(PDD.US)$Alibaba(BABA.US)

$Bilibili(BILI.US) is only a small observation position. Recently, Bilibili's ads have felt like they've increased manyfold, and as a shareholder, I feel the next earnings season might bring a surprise.

June has been the most painful month since I started investing.

Speechless 😅

The market's current logic is simple and brutal: software stocks are being shorted as AI hedges. Microsoft, with no negative events of its own to catalyze the move, fell 20%, marking its third-largest monthly decline since the 21st century. The first two times were during the 2000 internet bubble.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Even worse than the Hang Seng Tech Index is the baijiu sector 👀

Last year, I originally asked my dad to buy 100 shares of Moutai as a fixed deposit, but after a lot of thought, I decided it's better not to touch baijiu stocks, so I sold at 1450, still making a profit of five or six thousand.

Looking at it now, it's already in such a bad state

$LZLJ(000568.SZ)$Moutai(600519.SH)$WLY(000858.SZ)

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)If Xiaomi hadn't entered the car-making business, its stock price would probably be about the same as now, maybe even a bit higher 😄

The stock prices of other automakers might be 10-20% higher overall than they are now.

Xiaomi's venture into car-making doesn't seem fundamentally different from the food delivery wars fought by the "Three Food Delivery Fools".

Do I still have to thank the A4 paper? 😅

After that incident, I decisively cut two-thirds of my China concept stock positions.

This saved me at least 15 percentage points of loss on those hundreds of thousands.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$TENCENT(00700.HK)$Alibaba(BABA.US)$PDD(PDD.US)$MEITUAN(03690.HK)