watchdog

Circle's 20% drop + Robinhood buyback suggests crypto retail enthusiasm fading. Institutional adoption still key

Bitcoin >$73k! My portfolio is finally green!

$Strategy(MSTR.US) up almost 9% today as Bitcoin bounces back above 68k. The ultimate leverage play is waking up. Shorts feeling the heat with 14% of float borrowed

State of the Union speech, new 15% tariffs, Epstein investigation headlines - $Trump Media & Tech(DJT.US) down only 0.7% premarket . Either all the bad news priced in at $9.89 or market just numb to this ticker.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Q2 earnings beat across the board: $81.3B revenue, Azure +39%, commercial backlog $625B up 110% . Yet stock down 17% YTD, worst in Mag7. Market says capex too high, I say wait for Q3 supply catch-up. MSFT at $398, 25x PE, 5-year low. This dip is a gift.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) closed $284.37 yesterday, +1.96% on 12.3M volume. Vanguard added 995k shares in Q4, Capital World added 824k, Norges Bank opened $4.38B stake. Berkshire $1.57B stake from Q2 still underwater. Insiders selling? No. Institutions buying the dip while retail panics. 2026 revenue -2% but cash flow +18B, FCF growth +61.7%. This is mean reversion, not structural decline. 🐳

$Oracle(ORCL.US) 52-week range $118.86 - $345.72. Now $157, -27% YTD. Air Force escalated on 2/12, DA Davidson upgraded to Buy $180 on 2/13. Lawsuit deadline sometime in March. Q3 earnings report on 3/9. Volatility compressed to 32% IV. This is a coiled spring. Either breaks up to $180 or down to $118. I'm long premium. 🎯

Bitcoin down 22% YTD, $Strategy(MSTR.US) down 17%. Leverage actually hedged some downside? But look at the debt: $8.24B converts due 2028, $6.3B preferred paying 8-10%. Annual interest/dividend ~$800M. Software FCF covers maybe half. Rest needs BTC to go up. It‘s a chain of dominoes.

$Intel(INTC.US) still feels like a turnaround story, not AI winner yet 😅 Foundry investment heavy, AI roadmap adjusting, market still comparing vs $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) /$AMD(AMD.US)

$Strategy(MSTR.US) It's fine if the ups and downs stay stable around ten points. A rise or fall of twenty or thirty points is really a bit hard to take

$Coinbase(COIN.US) $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) In a risk-on market, this can fly. But always have an exit plan

From a macro perspective, $Circle(CRCL.US) actually represents the trend of dollar digitization. USDC is essentially an on-chain dollar, and if the financial system gradually accepts stablecoins in the future, its role may be similar to that of the early Visa network. However, the risks are also obvious: regulatory policies could change the business model at any time. Many people only look at the cryptocurrency market, but ignore its position in the traditional financial system, which may be the key to determining its long-term valuation.

$Circle(CRCL.US) hmm this seems to be quite resilient to crypto moves, maybe the dip is ending?

ASML feels like long-term hold, short-term pain.

$Strategy(MSTR.US) reports tonight after the close. Honestly, at this point it trades like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF, so the core software numbers feel like a sideshow. The street expects EPS around $18.64.

The financials are wild—insane revenue growth (~11%) and net margin (over 2000%) thanks to Bitcoin accounting, but the Return on Equity is low at 5.3%. The balance sheet is solid with low debt.

The real focus tonight won't be the earnings print. It'll be all about their commentary on Bitcoin strategy and treasury management. That's what will move the needle.

$Strategy(MSTR.US) earnings will be a proxy for corporate Bitcoin sentiment. A strong report could temporarily support crypto markets, i think...

SNDK’s split from WDC has created a pure play on NAND demand, and year-to-date returns have been insane.

Selling crypto now is like panic-selling gold stocks years ago. AI backtest shows: Bitcoin's worst losing streak was 6 months (once). This is the 3rd 4-month streak. If Feb drops, it'll be 5 months—historically rare. Post-streak, 6-month gains often top 100%. It may be reading past patterns, but history helps. Halving nears. I'm DCA-ing into crypto stocks until new highs.

$Strategy(MSTR.US) $Strive(ASST.US) $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)

$Western Digital(WDC.US) was just included in the Nasdaq 100 index at the end of last year, and the $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) fund was passively buying it as a result, which may support WDC's momentum in the short term.

CoreWeave’s shift from crypto mining to AI compute with Nvidia backing makes it feel like cloud infrastructure 2.0, but high insider sales and execution risks are discussion points among bulls and bears alike.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) rose for two days and then fell all at once...

$Apple(AAPL.US) released its earnings report today, causing some market tension.