美股Marry姐

Anyone waiting for Powell? 🙋

If Powell shows a more hawkish stance tonight—hinting that interest rates will remain high for a longer time, cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks may face selling pressure again.

Although the market rebounded slightly on Monday, the rebound remains fragile. The rebound was driven by Trump and Vance signaling a softer trade stance last Sunday. So, tensions persist.

Meanwhile, the commodity market continues its strong rally, with gold and silver hitting record highs.$HSTECH ETF(03032.HK)$Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US)$Pro Ultr GLD(UGL.US)$Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF(NVDD.US)$TASLY(600535.SH)$SMIC(00981.HK)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

Today, the Hang Seng Tech Index surged, mainly benefiting from chip stocks.

1. Rising expectations of interest rate cuts: Unexpectedly weak US ADP employment data strengthened market expectations for the Fed to cut rates within the year, boosting risk appetite for global growth assets.

2. Favorable liquidity conditions: The US federal government shutdown triggered short-term capital flows into markets like Hong Kong stocks, providing liquidity to the market.

3. Optimistic policy outlook: The market is hopeful about the domestic important meeting in late October and anticipates that domestic policies may follow suit if the US cuts rates.

Looking at chip stocks like SMIC, which surged nearly 13% today, during the National Day holiday, A-shares were closed, so the main driver of the stock price was foreign capital. A single remark from "Old Huang" and the chip stock rally in South Korea also contributed to this wave of gains. Of course, behind this is also the re-evaluation of Chinese tech stocks by international capital.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Huatai-PB CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)(513130.SH)$HSTECH ETF(03032.HK)$SMIC(00981.HK)$Cambricon(688256.SH)$ZIJIN GOLD INTL(02259.HK)

Recently, I have been involved in a national distribution project, with roadshows happening every few days. It's been a while since I last updated everyone. Tonight, I watched Lei Jun's speech and was fired up by his words: "Just focus on working hard, and leave the rest to fate." Although I'm not a Xiaomi fan, I do have some trust in Lei Jun.

Today, Lei Jun compared Xiaomi with the iPhone 17 at the Xiaomi launch event, hoping that one day Xiaomi can truly surpass the iPhone.

First, let's look at the hardware of the new product. The Xiaomi 17 series already has the capability to surpass the iPhone 17 in some areas, but there is still a gap in ecosystem barriers and brand premium. Its stock price may rebound to HKD 60 in the short term, but risks should be noted.

In terms of hardware, the Xiaomi 17 series continues the advantage of "stacking specs." It is the world's first to feature TSMC's 3nm fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 Ultimate Edition, with multi-core performance surpassing Apple's A19 Pro. Playing "Genshin Impact" offers more stable frame rates and lower device temperatures, which should excite many gamers. The 200MP periscope telephoto zoom capability of the 17 Pro Max is better than the iPhone 17. Battery life and fast charging configurations far exceed the iPhone 17 series. The price is also more competitive, with the standard 17 model priced at only 75% of the iPhone 17, and the Pro Max top configuration nearly 30% lower.

However, the software ecosystem is Xiaomi's weak point. Although HyperOS 3.0 has improved, its background retention capability is inferior to iOS, and third-party app adaptation is slower. However, the 'Human-Car-Home Full Ecosystem' is its unique feature. The Xuanjie O1 chip performs impressively, placing Xiaomi in the first tier of high-end chips, but the initial installation volume is small, making it difficult to replace Qualcomm in the short term.

In terms of stock price, Xiaomi's current closing price is HKD 56.9, close to its previous high, with a P/E (TTM) of 19x, lower than Tencent and Amazon, leaving room for recovery. The strong growth in smartphones, cars, and IoT businesses has led to optimistic market expectations, with a ~70% probability of reaching HKD 60 in the next 3-6 months. However, risks such as the strong pre-order performance of the iPhone 17, the high R&D costs of the Xuanjie chip, and geopolitical factors should be noted. Short-term investors can consider buying the dip around HKD 55 and take partial gains when profitable.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $Apple(AAPL.US) $TENCENT(00700.HK)

The recent divergence in the U.S. stock market and the core logic behind the Nasdaq bull run lie in the AI-driven performance of listed companies, with the financial results of tech giants led by NVIDIA serving as the key evidence. This assessment is accurate.

Core Logic and Market Focus: The market is indeed highly focused on whether AI can continue to deliver tangible profits for companies. NVIDIA, as the absolute leader in AI chips, has its earnings report regarded as a critical indicator of AI industry demand and future prospects. Historical data shows that NVIDIA has a habit of "exceeding expectations and raising guidance."

Recent Trends and Market Expectations: The volatility in NVIDIA's stock price ahead of its earnings report reflects the market's mixed sentiments—both anticipation of high growth and concerns over overvaluation and whether performance can continue to exceed expectations. Its market cap has surpassed $4 trillion, accounting for nearly 8% of the S&P 500, making its performance significantly impactful on the broader market.

Strategy Recommendation: "Hold and wait for signals" is a relatively prudent approach. This means preparing contingency plans in advance:

NVIDIA's earnings report is coming soon.

If the report exceeds expectations and provides optimistic guidance: It may boost market confidence in the entire AI sector, potentially fueling another round of gains for tech stocks.

If the report falls short of expectations or offers conservative guidance: It could trigger short-term volatility, heightening cautious sentiment toward AI investments.

The Hong Kong stock market is quite unique, heavily influenced by both U.S. and A-share markets. Therefore, investing in Hong Kong stocks should focus on high-quality assets that can benefit from "dual advantages"—such as opportunities from potential Fed rate cuts and policy-driven dividends from A+H shares. This approach is quite sound.

First, the characteristics of the Hong Kong market and its influencing factors: The Hong Kong market is essentially an "offshore market." where capital inflows depend on global liquidity (especially Fed policy, which dictates the tightness of the U.S. dollar) and the fundamentals of China's economy. Recently, there has been a significant shift, with the market pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September and the U.S. dollar weakening. Under such conditions, capital tends to flow into emerging markets, potentially increasing liquidity for Hong Kong stocks.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Huatai-PB CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)(513130.SH) $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $Alibaba(BABA.US) $TENCENT(00700.HK) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Eli Lilly(LLY.US)

Morgan Stanley released a report on Monday predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month, followed by another 25 basis point cut in December, and then quarterly cuts of 25 basis points each starting from 2026 until the final interest rate range reaches 2.75%-3.0%. Some analysts pointed out that after Powell's speech, many institutions adjusted their expectations, but since the market has already partially priced in the rate cut expectations, the stimulus effect of this change on the market may be limited. However, rate cuts remain the most important short-term market influence, and it is expected that the market will continue to trade around this moderate rate cut expectation.

On the other hand, the market is closely watching Nvidia's earnings report, which is set to be released on Wednesday. Its influence is even comparable to the non-farm payroll report, and the results may determine whether the AI boom in U.S. stocks can continue. Some commentators believe that Nvidia's earnings report now holds a market status similar to major U.S. macroeconomic data, such as the non-farm payroll and inflation reports that influence the Fed's rate cut probability expectations. Arun Sai, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management, said that Nvidia is no longer just a single stock; unusually, the market is viewing it as one of the indicators reflecting the overall U.S. economic situation.

The market won't see much volatility in the next two days, so you can relax in the evening.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $T-Rex 2X Inverse Bitcoin Daily Target ETF(BTCZ.US) $SHUANGDENG(06960.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK) $MEITUAN(03690.HK)

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices once again hit record highs, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite extending their gains and both setting new closing records. The core driver of this rally remains the market's strong expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant publicly stated that current interest rates should be 150-175 basis points lower than the current level and emphasized that "a 50-basis-point rate cut in September is highly likely," which could mark the beginning of a series of Fed rate cuts. The key catalyst for this renewed expectation of rate cuts stems from several recently released critical data points—May's non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downward, showing clear signs of cooling in the labor market.

U.S. stocks are likely to continue rising on this momentum in the near term, with the key to future trends hinging on the magnitude of the rate cuts. If the cuts are substantial enough, U.S. stocks may open up further upside potential.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US)

The performance-worriers are right😎

Although CRCL's earnings report showed rapid revenue growth, profits declined significantly, mainly because too much money was distributed to Coinbase for stablecoins. Circle's contract with Coinbase is about to expire. If it is changed to a distribution contract with lower fees, profits will increase, and there will also be additional issuance🥲

$Circle(CRCL.US)$Robinhood(HOOD.US)$Coinbase(COIN.US)

Expectations for a September interest rate cut are growing, and many friends are already cheering. At the same time, there are questions in the group: Gold has always been a safe-haven asset, rising even without rate cuts. Now, with such high expectations for a rate cut, it's still rising. Why is it constantly going up?

This is indeed a very good question.

U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns will continue to intensify in the second half of 2025. Combined with a weaker dollar, this will drive gold prices moderately higher to new historical highs. The current logic behind gold's rise is: September rate cut expectations → lower real interest rates → weaker dollar → safe-haven demand. If the rate cut happens in September, gold may launch a new round of gains. If it doesn't, short-term pullbacks could create opportunities for long-term allocation.

Below is a summary from my friend for your reference.

$iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) $GoldMining(GLDG.US) $SPDR GOLD TRT(02840.HK)